Friday Night Lights 200z 150BB+ Deep

I would have checked river again, personally I'd fold this ap.

I would not bet river here and look to check call. This sucks but i find the fold.

I can see checking river but there's more pocket pairs than missed draws in his range so I think betting to target 77/99/TT is a bit better.

non zero chance they bet themselves tbh, also can peel flop x turn and bluff river with many hands: AQ, KQ, T9s, QTs, etc.

It's possible but I bet 2/3 otf and players over fold to cbets relative to GTO. Population is also reopening less than theory when IP OTR so we are more incentivized to block bet with good but not great hands.

The river raise is the most interesting spot for me.

I'd fold because I think fish can xb turn with all boats and JX and get to this river very uncapped. I also think it's less likely they jam here 230 into 80 as a bluff or as a bluff just in general. There are certainly some fish who will bluff you, but I'd imagine it's going to be pretty low freq (10-20%). So, value range can contain 88, 66, JJ even, JX-->AJ, QJs, KJs, JTs, and some XXdd like specifically 65dd, A6dd, 76dd, AQdd. Bluffs might be some random spew stuff, but again low freq.

In my studies I've found fish to be even more bluff happy in 3bet pots, especially vs smaller river sizing's. In general, I think fish get more aggressive the bigger the pot.

I need to check MDA on this but I think fish overbluff vs B30-B50 OTR vs BXB.

I'll get results in 24 hours and post them.

I think there are a lot of potential value combos and fewer potential bluff combos... and even then they would have to opt to push with those bluffs.

Can defo be bluffs, but fewer %.

Do we know that this guy is a fish though?

He coldcalled a raise and a squeeze, so high probablilty.

Yes that's true, forgot to read back and check action again

I'd probably want to have a good Jack since I think he's going to play a lot of them this way, and probably isn't going to be bluffing enough.

Don't really think that's true since fish overstab relative to GTO OTT.

Fish are terrified of getting sucked out on.

is that true enough to all textures though? The problem I have with MDA-ing fish is that they are at their core quite unpredictable. Or at least highly variable in some lines.

In certain spots of course they are ultra predictable but once we get into oblique turn and river lines... feels like a stretch to say the blanket response here is to bet. Fish also LOVE to trap, and i would've thought IP with trips is more likely to fall into that category than most

You could be right, but they seem to slowplay trips a lot as the flop caller and can still have whatever diamonds they called with preflop, and I would guess that they would mostly call their pairs and fold almost all of the air against a 1/2 pot river bet. It makes a lot of sense to me for them to not be bluffing often enough.

I would either bet bigger flop to setup spr for turn jam or just bet smaller to encourage wide calls or random bluff raise.

River maybe smaller bet to be sure you always get call form those weak pairs. Would fold vs jam, he only took passive actions so far, unlikely he all of the sudden bluffs for stack imho.

Still not sure about this one but results.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($393.65) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.8% | Flop Agg: 41.9% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 36.9% | 3Bet: 11.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 60.2% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 305539]
UTG ($239.55) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
HJ ($250.86) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
CO ($246.86) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
BTN ($314.59) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 100% | Hands: 1]
SB ($191.60) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]

Dealt to Hero: K♣ K♦

UTG Folds, HJ Raises To $6, CO Folds, BTN Calls $6, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $33, HJ Folds, BTN Calls $27

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.86 effective]
Flop ($73): 8♦ 6♠ J♥
HERO Bets $46.46 (Rem. Stack: $314.19), BTN Calls $46.46 (Rem. Stack: $235.13)

Turn ($165.92): 8♦ 6♠ J♥ J♦
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

River ($165.92): 8♦ 6♠ J♥ J♦ 3♦
HERO Bets $80.96 (Rem. Stack: $233.23), BTN Raises To $235.13 (allin), HERO Calls $154.17 (Rem. Stack: $79.06)

Nice call. Judging from my response there's certainly fold equity but conversely in his shoes it doesn't make much sense to turn this BC supernova