How much would a 500nl reg lose against the top players 3 handed?
https://twitter.com/George_ymb/status/17...
Saulo and YouMadBro had this discussion/argument on twitter.
Personally as only a 500nl reg who could be wrong, I think YMB is right the best players would have a big winrate although he didn’t need to make the case in such a rude way
My argument is theoretically if you add up all the different leaks a 500nl reg has like being unbalanced in many lines, making GTO EV mistakes, giving off timing tells, taking actions with only one hand class instead of playing their range sometimes, trying to exploit in transparent ways etc they have to be exploitable for much >10bb. Most of these a GTO bot isnt punishing at all so players winrates vs bots aren’t a good indicator. And someone like Stefan would induce even more mistakes with that style
I can’t say how much of the theoretical amount an elite player can capture since haven’t played against any but expect it to be >5bb
I commend any msnl reg with the balls to ever try something like this with their own money on the line. Unfortunately, most msnl regs would approach this with the mindset that yadayada I´m solid I beat 500nl yadayada I will breakeven yadayada I study solvers and do drills every day yadayada. They will get destroyed. This is beta mindset in its purest form (what is the problem with being a mindset coach btw?).
You either go with the mindset of ****ing destroying those guys, to send them home cryin
At least, supremely rational, failed mindset coach crimsonchin loves your beta/alpha dick-measuring view of poker. The poker field is much softer than the field of people that went into industry/quit. I know it's important for you to feel superior to these people in some way and force them back to their job. The top 10% of poker players earn much less than the top 10% of working class people, and it is true at every percentile. Look at the HSNL thread and see what the all time winners, best in the world, are clearing in online poker. Look no further than this thread to see how much delusion people attach to their poker heroes as an intellectual measuring stick because they fail to compete in tougher fields.
The best of the best are not earning much higher winrates than a good 500NL reg in this solved poker format, and there has been no evidence in this thread to prove otherwise.
At least, supremely rational, failed mindset coach crimsonchin loves your beta/alpha dick-measuring view of poker. The poker field is much softer than the field of people that went into industry/quit. I know it's important for you to feel superior to these people in some way and force them back to their job. The top 10% of poker players earn much less than the top 10% of working class people, and it is true at every percentile. Look at the HSNL thread and see what the all time winners, best in t
bro, you said elite pros would break even with rake and win 5bb 100 without rake. rake at high stakes is like sub 1bb/100... you clearly have no clue what you're talking about yet you're so sure you're right
bro, you said elite pros would break even with rake and win 5bb 100 without rake. rake at high stakes is like sub 1bb/100... you clearly have no clue what you're talking about yet you're so sure you're right
Another high stakes grifter claiming how vastly superior he is for playing slightly higher stakes at a marginal winrate. All the action is on GG and take a look at the rake so uhhh "like 1bb/100" is anywhere from dead wrong to very wrong depending on stake or PLO vs NL
https://www.primedope.com/online-poker-r...
Almost all 10k+ battling happens on non GG sites, past 1-2 years mostly on ACR where rake is literally nothing.
Another high stakes grifter claiming how vastly superior he is for playing slightly higher stakes at a marginal winrate. All the action is on GG and take a look at the rake so uhhh "like 1bb/100" is anywhere from dead wrong to very wrong depending on stake or PLO vs NL
https://www.primedope.com/online-poker-r...
why so hostile bro? who hurt u
Some questions:
1. How would the bots (which I assume are not perfect) that beat the midstakes pros for a little, do against the high stakes champs?
2. How would they do against the theoretical perfect bot?
3. Is the estimate of the mid vs high champ taking into account that the loss would be less if the mid guy realizes who he is up against?
4. Does everyone realize that the loss would be less still if there was a proposition bet regarding average loss because a smart mid stakes champ would make some adjustments given the proposition?
5. Since the mid champ has plus EV on the button, the loss per hundred hands is actually loss per 66.7 hands minus the win for the other 33.3 What kinds of things can the high stakes champs do to bring that to 15 BB per 100? What would be a couple of precise hypothetical examples?
Some questions:
1. How would the bots (which I assume are not perfect) that beat the midstakes pros for a little, do against the high stakes champs?
2. How would they do against the theoretical perfect bot?
3. Is the estimate of the mid vs high champ taking into account that the loss would be less if the mid guy realizes who he is up against?
4. Does everyone realize that the loss would be less still if there was a proposition bet regarding average loss because a smart mid stakes champ would make so
This isn't in your latest book?
Some questions:
1. How would the bots (which I assume are not perfect) that beat the midstakes pros for a little, do against the high stakes champs?
2. How would they do against the theoretical perfect bot?
3. Is the estimate of the mid vs high champ taking into account that the loss would be less if the mid guy realizes who he is up against?
4. Does everyone realize that the loss would be less still if there was a proposition bet regarding average loss because a smart mid stakes champ would make so
1. imo elite would lose slightly less vs gto, but not a huge difference
2. idk what distinction youre making between imperfect and perfect bots
3. yes
4. don't think this would be enough to sway it one way or another, but i think the point that's being made exists besides the prop bet, prop bet is just e-penis measurement around it
5. overall better range analysis to predict imbalances, better showdown analysis to design future adjustments, better execution due to more experience and practice with all of the concepts that matter in reg battles, better mental game...
You could come up with some examples, but they boil down to things like them seeing showdowns and understanding how you're imbalanced in ways you don't even understand about your own strategy
Some questions:
1. How would the bots (which I assume are not perfect) that beat the midstakes pros for a little, do against the high stakes champs?
2. How would they do against the theoretical perfect bot?
If both players are only allowed certain bet sizes and there's no multiway pots, the bot will basically be perfect. Saulo is saying his 50-200nl players didn't lose for 8 bb/100 5-handed but didn't give an exact figure.
theyd lose all of it because the 2 pros are probably colluding
The real question is how much would the highstakes pros lose against the top players at 200 zoom. Everyone knows 200 zoom players are the best in the world
Don't really know the level of MS regs nowdays, but would say that i think even many regs winning at 5k+ would get demolished in 3handed with the top5 guys.
Trying to gauge possible edge by testing errorrate vs static botman gives basically 0 insight on possible edges. Somehow the introduction of solvers seem to have made lots of ppl think that poker is a try to match the tile to correct place game and forgot its a strategy game, and bad strategies get really punished by the top guys.
-9bb/100
/thread
for the people saying figures like -9bb, that means they’d beat 3handed random nl500 games with a mix of regs and recs for 12-15bb/100 after rake?
a random 3 handed 500nl game with a mix of regs and recs, thats so full of variables and so open for discussion, i would have a harder time guessing a winrate for that scenario (or world of scenarios, wr of rec, which reg is expert at 3h and who isnt, what is the mix 90/10 75/25 etc etc)
well if they beat all the regs for 9bb, they’d beat the recs for far more
for the people saying figures like -9bb, that means they’d beat 3handed random nl500 games with a mix of regs and recs for 12-15bb/100 after rake?
3 handed with a rec and a bad reg? Yes, they will crush. GL stopping the others joining this table and diluting your edge in the next 5 seconds or so. We’re talking only 500 dollars, not 10k++
well normal rake, like 2-3bb/100
what about 6 handed, would they also double digit winrate it?
well normal rake, like 2-3bb/100
what about 6 handed, would they also double digit winrate it?
Oh boy. You do realize 6 handed you have to play EP, MP and CO, and even when you´re in LP, those guys will open and make your vpip lower right? Plus those positions will open into your BB. To answer your question, no, they won´t.
This is like 95% reg wars 3 or 4-handed between the very best players in the world. If after 85k hands, a player like Nacho is around -4 evbb, I'd imagine a z500 reg would be significantly lower.
for the people saying figures like -9bb, that means they’d beat 3handed random nl500 games with a mix of regs and recs for 12-15bb/100 after rake?
It's funny you make it seem like it's something impossible to achieve. I had a winrate around that when one site offered 3max tables at nl400 and I was playing nl400-nl2k at that time, was for sure not uncommon at all in those games and thats a decade ago.
Also there is a big difference if you play the same opponent(s) all day everyday. Clearly the better player should get more and more edge the more he plays with the weaker opponent. I.E a reg that played hundred k hands vs a fish will perform a lot better than vs a fish he has played 0 hands vs.
This is like 95% reg wars 3 or 4-handed between the very best players in the world. If after 85k hands, a player like Nacho is around -4 evbb, I'd imagine a z500 reg would be significantly lower.
isnt this also showing how massive variance is in those games? I think in 2022 there was still a bunch of 10knl regbattling on stars going on and Nacho was the biggest winner on stars that year.
