Calculating EV on the Turn
Quick question. Let's say OTT we have 25% equity OOP and villain bets a PSB and we want to calculate our EV. Would it be .25*2(which would be pot+villains bet) - .75*1 OR would it be .25*3(Pot+villains bet+our call) - .75*1?
Also if it is the former, would the figure change if say we assume villain will make a PSB OTR?
So if we assume it goes ch/ch OTR we wouldn't include our call BUT if we assume villain will make a PSB on the river, would we include our call in the equation or still no? Im basically trying to figure out how much BB we would need to win OTR to justify a call OTT with implied odds.
5 Replies
EV = win$*win%-loss$*loss%
Your second equation is incorrect (.25*3(Pot+villains bet+our call) - .75*1). The negative term should be -1.
EV = 0.25*(Pot before V bet+ Bet) -.75*Bet = 0.25* (1+1) - 0.75*1 = -0.25
Or
EV = 0.25 *(Total Pot after all Bets) - Investment = 0.25*3 - 1 = -0.25
You indicate a check/check on the turn and ask about implied odds. Implied odds apply when you make a -EV call (or bet) with a good drawing hand on the current street hoping to achieve +EV on a future street if you hit your outs.
You can model this to determine how much you have to win on the future street for a profit. If you don’t hit, you will normally fold. A complete model will include the possibility of villain not calling or hero losing if he does hit. This is discussed on my Hold’em Mathology blog on Tumblr.
If we are all-in on the turn after our call or the river is sure to go check/check, the first equation will work very well.
If you assume a pot-bet on the river as well then we have to specify our own behaviour. Are we always calling on the river? Are there scenarios where we fold on the river?
If there are multiple possible actions or lines, then each action requires it own term in the EV-equation.
But assume we call both bets on both turn and river.
Then there is only one action and we can use a simple pot odds calculation.
Turn
You call 1 TPSB. Total pot 3 TPSB.
River
Vil bets pot again.
You call 3TPSB. Total pot 9 TPSB
Out of a total pot of 9 turn-bets you have contributed 4 bets by showdown meaning you need an equity of around 45% for non-negative EV.
Which is what happens in NL.
Unless you are all-in early in the hand or sure villain wont bet, the equity you need to continue is somewhere around 40%+.
Your second equation is incorrect (.25*3(Pot+villains bet+our call) - .75*1). The negative term should be -1.
EV = 0.25*(Pot before V bet+ Bet) -.75*Bet = 0.25* (1+1) - 0.75*1 = -0.25
Or
EV = 0.25 *(Total Pot after all Bets) - Investment = 0.25*3 - 1 = -0.25
You indicate a check/check on the turn and ask about implied odds. Implied odds apply when you make a -EV call (or bet) with a good drawing hand on the current street hoping to achieve +EV on a future street if you hit your outs.
You can mo
Sorry, to clarify, it would be ch/ch on the river not on the turn. The turn villain bets. So my implied odds question related to how much I would need to win on the next street (on the river) to make the call either BE or higher EV the ch/r on the turn. Hopefully that makes sense.
