Straight to OB jail, do not pass GO

Calling; KQs 3! preflop while we also block 3 combos of KQo. 3betting this flop doesn't accomplish much either imo since it's unlikely villain has a set or 2 pair and we don't have to worry about a flushdraw.

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Trouble is most fish don't 3b enough from the blinds so I think that logic only applies to regs sadly. (could be a reg, but this is 10nlz so i default to meh)

Effectively, we're looking at around a PSB for the river which will almost certainly be a shove given this XR sizing and aggression. Presumably you're just calling this off on most runouts?

@ 100bb I think I close my eyes but @150bb I'm giving this more weight for nuts or nuffin.

If they are a fish then they are also going to be valuetowning themselves as well.

But your point is well-taken that the stack depth does make this less automatic. You only cbet 1/3 so it's not crazy for villain to get to the turn with all their KQ combos.

Why didn't you size up otf?

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My first thought is just this is KQ 90+%

Cbet more on flop. As played, call turn, call shove on river. Don't be surprised if he flips 88, T8, or TJ on occasion here either. You have the second nuts in a 6-handed game. You want action

I would probably talk myself into calling, thinking they can have 97s or even the same hand as we have. But maybe Brokenstars is right a NL10 player raising a turn overbet has the nuts almost always. 150BB deep maybe it's not terrible to refuse the variance and "wait for a better spot", which are plenty at microstakes.

On the flop, this hand goes into 2/3 pot bet or check for me.

As played, calling and folding on the river if he bets pot+.

Yeah but you seen this bro?

If he's good he 3bs KQs 100% and KQo like 50%, so he only has 6 combos pre of which we block a quarter, so like 4.5 combos.

If he is not good, then he is bad and can mis-evaluate his hand. Even most nits in the micro pool have a tough time with relative hand strength.

Don't fold 2nd nuts here. 97 also made a straight (4 combos), AJ made 2 pair (like 4? combos), and Q9 chops (3-9 combos depending on whether offsuits fold/call/3bs). Add to that the non-zero chance of JT, 88, 8J, and a random K9 and some more wtf-this-is-NL10-nonsense

I'm never folding here but I also maybe too rigidly abide by the heuristic of don't OB a straight completing card, so I'm not sure if the OB is really the right size here. But I'm with Aner0. I'm gonna take my lumps on this street at least.

Stop playing poker if you fold this

..you haven't thought this through have you?

A'ight - starting to concede (a bit). Forgot about 97 and obviously gto calls all day.

I think people are underestimating how much difference an extra 50bb makes though. I ran two sims, one @100bb and one @150bb and the 150bb says we lose over HALF our EV calling Q9. Presumably because we’re priced in on rivers with all that extra weight and wont’ get paid off very often with their draws that probs give up more at higher sprs.

I don’t auto-fold turn XRs but skimming through my DB also can’t find examples of boards like this where we have so many strong hands and V punts off with some random draw or confusedo value. Particularly to a polarising OB. (OB is correct btw)

Pot odds are 28%. Nearly 1/3. Pretty high in a spot where population massively underraises. Are we really being exploited by overfolding? 'Second' nuts reads like an oxymoron.

again - its ridiculous to fold second nuts here.
Its much more likely villain calls 97 pre then KQ (most people 3bet KQ)
If villain only calls KQ he also calls 88 and TT pre

As long as you dont have stats that villain is a nit its a 100% call.
Probably you lost this time but that doesnt matter in the longrun.

Not thrilled about it since people don't really raise overbets, but 2p, 97, 88, TT, and JJ are going to be possible v. an unknown, and you still have 3 outs against KQ.

I dunno. Even in my early early fish days I can't imagine XR 2p very often on boards like this. I don't think that's your average 10nl fish at least. They don't tend to go after locked down boards vs uncapped ranges. Sets nearly always raise flop. He has almost zero JJ/AA. There's no FDs. 2p raises flop a lot.

I think it's straights 75%+. We beat some of the lower half. I think this is closer than a cert but who knows. If I could play it again I'd call out of curiosity at this point.

On further analysis I'm leaning towards call.

These are 10nlz BB's calling and raising ranges vs 3x BU open from a sample of ~150k:

Most KQ are calling. However, they also have more 97o than I imagined. And probably more Q9o too. On balance probably a call.

What are your thoughts on using 3x OTB? And what does your range look like?

I just stick to 3x everywhere @micros. I want to max out fold equity in a high rake environment and EV when called. As ^^^ nobody is 3betting enough and I'm mostly IP/can more easily exploit post I think this is fine. I can't be bothered to refine further than that until I move up. It doesn't seem necessary.

Range? christ, I should know this. Too much probably.

Just curious because I play in the same pool with a 2.5 open. We probably have hands on each other. Don't have strong feelings towards 2.5 vs 3, but I was hoping you had something concrete to make a conclusion.

I have noticed a few 3bb 60% btn openers that I love to 3b, but it is probably true that it is good against pool. What is your win rate?

Agree with calling turn. MDA is cool and all, but I think it's hard to get a big enough sample (on your own) for this exact spot, so I'd just stick to theory.

As for opening to 2.5 or 3, I would just go with what the table is giving you.

If you're on a table and constantly playing MW pots when you raise 2.5bb, then you should probably increase your raise size. You can also consider limping the bottom of your range if the table is playing passive enough.

how could it be that such an easy spot gets so much responses?????

Its such an clear easy spit that its not worth a post…

I am going to pretend I didn't see this thread. Trying to explain why this turn fold sucks so much ass gives me that sick feeling you get when you watch WW2 footage or see an animal get run over by a car.