[100NL] 200% pot with the nuts OTT
[converted_hand][hand_history]iPoker - €1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3
SB: €162.93 (162.9 bb)
BB: €156.98 (157 bb)
Hero (UTG): €209.59 (209.6 bb)
CO: €102.00 (102 bb)
BTN: €101.00 (101 bb)
SB posts €0.50, BB posts €1.00
Pre Flop: (pot: €1.50) Hero has A♥ Q♦
Hero raises to €2.50, CO raises to €7.50, 3 folds, Hero calls €5.00
Flop: (€16.50, 2 players) 5♣ 6♥ Q♣
Hero checks, CO bets €5.44, Hero raises to €15.88, CO calls €10.44
Turn: (€48.26, 2 players) Q♥
Hero bets €186.21 and is all-in
[/hand_history][/converted_hand]
Instead of doing a normal play betting 33%/50% I decided to bet almost 200% pot which is not at all a theoretical play and I knew it
I'm interested about what you think, but it seems that people will call a bit more vs a jam turn rather than facing a X/RBB line, and will probably make more mistakes.
Here's the the range that would call me turn vs a jam in my opinion, SC with a FD plus I added AK because I clearly think that most of the pool would think that I'm repping a lot more FD oriented than having a Qx :
And here's the thoeritical calling range vs a jam :
Absolutly no one would ever fold AA/KK/JJ/TT/Pair+draw
The EV of jaming is about 61 while the EV of betting 50% is 63, but knowing all of this it seems that in practice jamming has a better EV, thoughts?
7 Replies
Wishfull thinking imo. This is not an easy call with second best hands.
I think you're way too sure of how population plays and ur wrong
There are definitely players who would fold AA-TT
Assumption seem quite unrealistic to me. Most players fold a lot vs OB and you you are just losing a lot of value by jamming turn.
If you have a read on this opponent maybe it's better.
You would prefer not to have the Ah since this reduces villain’s flushdraw combos that will call.
That being said, I agree with the previous posts that your assumptions are very optimistic/off.
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Only good against fish/whales imo.
