Thought's on this river bluff

I see a lot of this overbet turn stab lately. Must be the hot new play. It seems to be heavily weighted to draws from what i have seen personally so i like your play.

Why aren't we just calling down with good blockers? Bluff shoving into a polarized range doesn't make much sense imo.

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I have 9 high

I'm aware! Fold and call with a hand that has good blockers.

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haha okay

Well it's an overbluffed spot so I'm hoping it's overfolded. Time will tell

Isn't the 8 and no clubs good?

Thats what i was thinking, why i like the play with this hand choice

We bluff shove into merged ranges and bluff catch vs polarized ranges.

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@doodoo

Why is this play from villain so prevalent now? Is it standard to overbet stab turn here? Its not like he even has that many value hands. Is he just saying we dont think you check back value?

I dont believe his bet for one second. Hes saying i have 44 or 66, and maybe 64 but i dont know if it overbets. Maybe population is way overfolding to overbet turn stabs so they just spam this play now? I just see this play constantly with draws and i dont know if thats even appropriate but maybe it is

I don't think you can profitability call turn. Riv looks like random clicking.

On Ace high boards the OOP player mostly uses OB sizing when probing OTT, otherwise he would just check.

Yeah it's overfolded from IP as well.

It's good advice but its way too simplistic.

All that matters is my opponent folding more than MDF here, we already know he is overbluffing. So there is a very good chance he is overfolding vs a jam.

If my opponent is overbluffing by 3% and overfolding by 3%. You realize you jam all your bluff catchers, correct?

Definitely, I'm just not plugged into MDA so if that's where the data gets us to then I'm all for it.

I didn't realize we established that villain is overbluffing here? Feel like population has a hard time finding overbets in general and when they do its generally for value.

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While I think this is still true in most cases. The meta has started to shift where practically everyone and their mother wants to be a redline bro.

They're definitely overbluffing with the first overbet vs. a missed cbet. idk how often they follow through on turns and rivers, but i would guess that they're still overbluffing.

I believe so but I'm still formulating my hypothesis on this. So basically, this statement isn't true vs fish because fish don't clearly separate bluffs from value OTR like regs do, they just bet and call whatever so you will have overbluffed/underfolded lines. MDA proves this.

But vs regs I think your statement is probably true. I have yet to see an overbluffed/underfolded spot.

This bluff might not be as good as I originally thought since the Ace is a bad data point but the concept is super important imo.

As far as the 3% vs 3% thing, MDF doesn't scale linearly so when our opponent starts overfolding he's not only folding those 3% extra bluffs, he is also folding value hands.

So in the aggregate this spot is way over bluffed. X-B120-B120 BBvsBU is 45weak and GTO is 35weak. Now you could argue that the Ace is a bad data point and you would be right, but I still think it is overbluffed (waiting for data).

It's not as clear cut as just getting the data either, we have stuff like showdown bias and sample size issues we have to deal with.

In a solver this is clearly losing but I'm hoping the overfolding more than makes up for that.

Do regs in your pool find bluffs in this line with missed fdraws like K7cc K8cc here? And do they turn low pair + future blockers like 85s 86s into bluffs here? If they do I think bluff is possibly winning but if their bluffing region contains more 85s, 86s, 89s without a club I would be hesitant to bluff since we are blocking some of his autofolds. I find this line to be very overfolded by ip player on turn so I imagine turn is overbluffed by regs but not necessarily river. I think were losing 2-3 BBs in EV against GTO on turn so we have to be pretty confident in this exploit to make this play I think.

Seems really ambitious versus someone that you only have one hand on. In my experience people that over bet more often than not, have it. I suspect your opponent has several sets, two pair, and missed draws. I'm not really sure what you represent when you jam other than 87 and 66, so it could be very easy to overbluff here if you're jamming with 98o. Maybe you don't care since it is an exploit, but just intuitively doesn't seem like a good spot.

What are all the hands that you take this line with as a bluff?

Would you agree that villain would have even more potential bluffs to choose from had there been a 2nd flushdraw ott or a different straightdraw that didn't require Broadway combos, some of which would 3bet pre?

OP seems to be saying that villain is getting to the river so insanely wide that we start approaching "any two cards territory" with our exploit, but once they fire again otr we should start folding.

We flatted ott with 98 in case we outdrew villain's nutted combos and gained an opportunity to stack them otr, but there are better hands with which to bluff shove the river, even if I don't particularly agree with that strategy here.

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I guess, but I think people are just overbetting a lot of random cards with the first overbet.

It's Ignition zone so completely anonymous but since turn looks like a perfect B150 (incl rake 11*.95*1.5=15.675) they're probably using Jurojin and therefore not a fish.

I know there's at least one spot where once they OB turn, value often sizes down OTR while bluffs tend to keep overbetting.

What did this guy end up having? Random trash or something that actually made sense?