NL50 - River decision in protected Pot
9max, 25c/50c splashy game
Hero stack 80$
Villain1 stack 40$
Villain2 stack 80$
UTG (Hero) openlimps 50c w/ JJ (no d), MP (Villain1) isoraise 1,5$, 2-3 calls (including SB/Villain2), Hero limp/raises 10$, just Villain1 and Villain2 call 10$.
Pot ~30$
Flop T82 two d
Villain2 checks, Hero cbets 30$, both Villains call 30$ (Villain1 is All-in at this point).
Pot ~120
Hero and Villain2 have 40$ stack size left.
Turn Ad
Villain2 and Hero check.
River 3c
Villain2 goes All-in for his remaining 40$, Hero ?
4 Replies
So...you're getting 4:1 on a call?
I don't know. It's tough to fold 2nd pair getting those pot odds, but what are you beating, the way this was played?
He double-flatted your limp-3B pre-flop. Your play suggests a ton of strength, and yet he still called. Then he check-called the flop, after you bet pot, and V1 goes all-in.
He's likely going to have TPTK, 2P, a set, a flush draw, or maybe some sort of combo-draw on the flop. It's unlikely he's calling with just a straight draw, like J9 or 97, a weak top pair., or worse.
TPTK becomes 2P on the turn. The flush draw also gets there.
What bluffs does he have here? Is he turning a worse 1P into a bluff? Does he double-flat pre, and check-call the flop, then jam river with a missed straight draw, like J9 or 97?
Tough situation. Villain won't have air bluffs and any AX beats you. What could he be betting that you beat? At the same time if you had AX you probably just move in on the turn, your play looks very much like a KK-JJ hand that could fold. If villain has TX or 99 he could figure he wins vs V1 but loses to your hand if he doesn't bluff.
My inclination is to fold because of the chance you lose to V1. V1 could have an AX and win the main pot even if you get the side pot. This makes calling fairly risky.
I don't think that Villain has any pure bluffs in this spot, since the pot is protected by Villain1 and even if he successfully bluffs me out, he still has to win at showdown vs Villain1. It is possible that he has for example KT and wants to fold out my KK-JJ in order to win vs Villain1s midpair type hands. However, I am not sure how likely this scenario is and if the given pot odds justify a call.
I don't think that Villain has any pure bluffs in this spot, since the pot is protected by Villain1 and even if he successfully bluffs me out, he still has to win at showdown vs Villain1. It is possible that he has for example KT and wants to fold out my KK-JJ in order to win vs Villain1s midpair type hands. However, I am not sure how likely this scenario is and if the given pot odds justify a call.
V1 opened pre, then called when you back-raised. Then V1 called off the rest of his stack when you bet pot on the flop. How often does V2 think V1 is doing that with a hand worse than KT? Enough to warrant V2 over-calling the flop with KT? It's unlikely V1 is calling flop with worse than TPTK or KXdd.
You probably don't have any flushes here when the Ad comes on the turn. But when you limp-back-raise from EP pre, You probably have more AA/KK/AKs in your range than JJ or QQ. So V2's jam with KT is possibly trying to fold out top set, KK (half the time with a diamond, blocking the 2nd nut flush draw on flop), or TPTK. V1 is more likely to have JJ or QQ than you are, given the pre-flop action.
Does V2 think you're going to fold top set, TPTK, or KK with a diamond, when you're getting 4:1? Is he really going to turn KT into a bluff here, hoping you played JJ or QQ as a limp-back-raise pre? Against your range, V2 is basically only repping a turned flush for value, but even if you fold, his KT is almost never winning against V1's range, which includes flushes, sets, top 2, and occasionally JJ or QQ.
When V2 over-calls on the flop, I'd think he has two overs with a flush draw that gets there on the turn, or AT that makes top 2 on turn. The rest of his range is probably check-raising flop (with his sets and 2P), or just folding (everything else). He probably checked turn, hoping you'd bet, and is now jamming river, hoping you'll call.
