Using Pot Odds Correctly in Poker

Why doesn't it seem right?

I think you should also look into the Implied Pot Odds conception.

If your opponent is betting 1/3 pot, you are getting good pot odds (or at least nearly so) to continue with a straight draw. If the pot is 3 and your opponent is betting 1, if you call you risk 1 to win 4 (the original 3 in the pot plus the 1 your opponent bet), which is 4:1 odds, corresponding to an equity of 20%. The equity that you have does NOT equate to the percentage of the pot that you can risk. The actual pot odds are (bet+pot):bet. The odds you need are (100-equity):equity.

In the case of the straight draw (17% equity) you need 83:17 odds, or 4.88:1. You were only getting 4:1 odds, so you should fold, right? Not quite. You may well win more than what is currently in the pot if you hit your straight. If your opponent will bet a future street or will call your bet on a future street, you will often win enough to make the call profitable. This is the concept of implied odds.

Be careful with this though. It’s not a “I can just blindly call because implied odds” kind of thing. First of all, pay attention to stack sizes. This is more common in tournaments but can come into play in some cash spots. If the effective stack is small, you may not be able to get the necessary implied odds to call. Even if the stacks are theoretically big enough to give the implied odds, bigger stacks mean more implied odds. It’s a “long run” proposition so it is really the expected implied odds you are concerned with. For example if your opponent will stack off 10% of the time when you hit, you can then calculate your implied odds as 10% of the effective stack size. If that is 90 bb, that makes 9bb as your implied odds. If it’s 20 bb then you only get 2bb implied odds.

Second, your opponent might not cooperate and bet for you or call your bet. If you called a flop bet, it may have been a cbet that missed and he may shut down. It might be that he made a mediocre hand and plans to check future streets for pot control. Position matters a lot here, both relative and absolute position. Early position raisers have a tighter range. Therefore an EP raiser will more often have a hand that will give you action on later streets. Conversely a BU or SB open will often be a very wide range and you often will not get your implied odds when you hit.

Relative position also is important. If you are in position it is easier to get paid than OOP. Just consider a fairly common spot; you call a PF open and your opponent cbets the flop. You call the cbet with a straight draw and the draw hits ott. If you are oop how do you handle it? If you donk the turn, unless your opponent is an idiot, he will be thinking you must have improved. Alarm bells should be ringing for him that you might have hit your straight draw that just completed. He will be hard pressed to call without a redraw of some kind. However if you check, he may not bet a mediocre holding or one that missed. IP plays a lot better here. If he bets the turn, great. You can just call and go to the river hoping he bets again. If he checks, you can either check back and hope to induce a bluff otr, or you can bet. That bet now looks much less strong and more like a stab at the pot than a donk bet would. He might have a bluff catcher or draw that calls.

Finally, there is the total disaster that can sometimes happen - the RIO, or reverse implied odds. You hit your draw, but that very same card gives your opponent a bigger hand. Your straight draw flop for example is two toned and the card that completes the straight also is a third card of the suit, completing the flush draw. Or maybe you hit your flush but your opponent has a bigger flush. The real question is how good is your draw in the first place. ItÂ’s often tough to avoid these spots, but there are some obvious danger situations to be aware of. Small suited connectors can get beat by bigger flushes. Paired boards can be dangerous when a flush draw completes. Be more careful when you have such hands and do not always assume you will win when you hit. Call with AXs hands more often than with lower flush draws. DonÂ’t blindly call straight draws when drawing to the lower end of the straight.

Thank you for the insightful answer. I had roughly the same idea in mind. It turns out that relying more on Implied Odds rather than pot odds is the way to go. But then, it seems that intuition becomes more important than mathematics to figure out if the opponent will pay you off on the later streets. And I was hoping that in poker, there were some aspects you could calculate precisely 😀

There is. If you have to call or make an all-in bet against one opponent, you can use Pot Odds (or an equivalent method) to precisely find the equity you need for +EV. Of course you will still have to determine if you have that equity.

poker is a game of incomplete information, so there is never a "straight" math to calculate if a play is correct or not, you will always need to make assumptions first (like, for example, how much can you get paid if you hit your draw) and then based the math on those assumptions

drawing is actually one of the most complicated subjects here, because there are many more factors to consider:
- you can win after missing your draw by bluffing
- you can win after missing your draw by having the best hand to begin with (which is why ace high draws are so powerful)
- you can win after missing your draw, but hitting something else (like pairing one of your cards)

if you are looking for a relatively simple spot for training poker math, it's calling all ins. You make an assumption about the possible holdings your opponent can have, calculate your combined equity against all those possible hands and then see if your pot odds are good enough to call

Actually it is quite precise in terms of the expected amount that an opponent will pay you if you hit your draw. It is just way too complicated for a human to actually compute, especially while sitting at a table and making the call/fold decision. Solvers are quite capable of doing the calculation and giving you an EV for calling a draw that includes implied odds.

The solver will compute, for each holding in villain’s range, what villain should do on a future street if you hit one of your outs. Villain likely will have a portion of his range that bets (either for value or as a bluff - he will not ALWAYS give up when a draw completes). He will likewise have some portion that check/calls and a portion that folds. The silver can calculate how likely each of these outcomes is and how much more money gets added to the pot under each of these to get a value for your calling EV that includes future action. This of course assumes optimal play by both players. Suboptimal villain play might reduce your implied odds, but you make up for any lost profit in other spots. Eg. villain is folding too much of his range when draws complete, so you make more by bluffing draw-completing boards.

Beyond what has already been said, the bottom line is that you should be folding draws often if the flop bet is too big. In fact, you should be folding most of the hands that are likely to end up with a draw in the first place.

If the bet is small enough to give you odds, or there are enough implied odds and you're likely to get paid, then yes. However, against a large flop bet, the bet size required on the turn, and/or river needs to be very large. You need to be fairly sure you're going to get paid, or if you whiff, that you can bluff the other guy out.

That goes beyond the skills of a "Beginner" player, which is the forum we are in.

Here is an example using an Excel program I wrote:

On the turn, the pot is 10. Hero has a flush draw on the turn and a small pair. His showdown hit probability is assumed to be 20% and he wins 85% of the time if he hits on the river. Villain will call 75% of the time if hero bets the river.

Case 1: Villain makes a pot size turn bet (10). Hero’s turn EV is -4.90. If hero calls, hoping that implied odds gives him a profit with a hit, hero needs to make a river bet of 45

Case 2: Villain make a turn bet of 5 times the pot (50) and hero calls. For +EV, hero needs to make a river bet of 290 with the same villain call frequency. If villain call frequency is lower than 75%, a larger river bet is required.

If villain turn bet was 10 times the pot (100), hero must bet 597 on the river.

Kinda makes my point, this is not a beginner's analysis.

Good stuff here .. How to use Pot Odds? Exactly the way you are using them as you compare the pot and bet size to your equity. This is always Step 1A when facing a bet. Step 1B is calculating equity, which in some cases is pretty easy .. or is it? Which straight draw do you have? Top, middle or bottom? Will it always 'be good'? Can you be outdrawn on the next Street and/or are all your outs CLEAN (not making a flush or an inferior straight)

As you become more comfortable with poker Pot Odds will almost certainly become automatic, which will allow you to take a look at the more subtle factors in your 'facing a bet' decision process

1) Yes, what are the Implied Odds .. and will I get paid for my risk? Is my Opponents stack even deep enough behind?
2) Do I have any other backdoor equity to consider .. flush draw .. are any of my pairs good here

3) What type of stats or history do I have with this V that may sway a close decision one way or another .. intuition
4) What type of holding does V think I have and can I use that image to bluff here or on the next street.

5) Does V bet make sense .. what story are they telling? .. more intuition

As indicated, poker is about incomplete information. But you want to use the information you have to make the best long term decision for the spot. You may end up with the exact same 'math' against three different V but you end up applying all three of your options as well .. call/raise/fold.

Pot Odds and Equity are the cornerstones to all your 'facing a bet' decisions. You have to 'rely' on them as your base and then go to other factors from there that include both math and intuition. Intuition must also include Ranging your opponent's holding.

As I said above .. 'which' straight are you drawing to? 68 on 57K is not the same as 57T, which is not the same as 79Q, which is not the same as 793. Which Board do you want? Or are you treating them all the same .. 'straight draw'? GL

I agree with answer20. What I will add, especially at the lower stakes and when stack sizes are on the smaller side, is to watch how your opponents bet. What are they raising with pre, how often do they c-bet the flop, etc?

Had a guy the other night that flat called with AK from middle, then late position (two hands). Checked, or called flop and turn, then bet the river on the second hand when he made top two. This became important when he later raised to $15 and I had JJ. Stacks were $200+. That was all the information needed on how to play the hand.