View: Being capable of beating regulars is the most important skill for long term poker success

What is a beard deal and who is Chinese Mike?

OP is probably simply not a very good poker player if he moved to a ringfenced site to play...50NL for a living.

I am in Ontario, and I am a rec grinder who has a full-time job and a life away from poker, and I am comfortably able to beat 100NL. It is really not very difficult and I am hardly good at poker.

There are more than enough fish that I can just smash them each night to make 2-4k (incl. RB and bonuses) a month when I put in decent volume.

In fact, I actively avoid regs and reg battling. I have no desire to ego battle, there are plenty of fish below 200NL that reg battling is not necessary.

I outright disagree with the title. OP just doesn't seem to have a clue WRT how the poker economy works.

I don’t think I can beat 50z on ACR atm. Tried in 2021 and over a real small sample it felt pretty oppressive - but I wasn’t losing that badly. I do believe I can beat 50NL on ACR (regular tables). I already know I can beat 10z / 25NL on ACR - but doesn’t make sense for me to play those limits on ACR due to the lower hourly. Also, I’m sure I can improve a lot - definitely enough to beat 50z - just a matter of figuring out how to effectively study.

I am sure I can beat 100NL on Stars MI/NJ - lots of recs and lots of the same regs from 50 pool. 50-60K hands from the sample in my graph is 100NL and I was winning.

Only reason I’m not playing 100NL on Stars MI/NJ is due to life expenses cannibalizing my bankroll.

That’s also why I’m changing my approach to not make all my money from poker. When I have reliable income outside of poker - I don’t need my BR to be 100 buy ins. I believe I’ll be able to find more success in poker, sooner, by doing it this way, and with lots of studying. There was a Runitonce video I watched from freenachos that talked about both of these things - and it seems to make a lot of sense.

I would say among winning players I’m not the greatest - but definitely not the worst. Anyone winning over 3bb/100 at 50NL is not terrible even on US only sites. Maybe terrible relative to winning 50z regs or 100NL+ regs that are on ROW sites … but that is kind of the point I’m making.

If there are people who can get enough edge on me that I’d be relatively terrible, or a fish to them - then it’s a very important skill - because table selection becomes so much easier - and you can always just put in volume. Someone like that is much more insulated from the effects of the pool becoming stronger. I guess what I’m saying is you need to know how to beat the weaker regs in your pool - and do your best against the rest. I’m not saying to purposefully play only against the best regs and that you must be able to beat the best.

I do try to avoid regs and table select heavily - but I think it’s short sighted to not learn how to beat them given the current environment.

Poker kind of follows the pareto principle in that 80% of your profits come from the bottom 20% of the pool... and honestly, if I had to guess, it is probably even more significant than that. Probably 60-80% of your profits from bottom 5-10%. When an actual VIP/Whale is playing on your table you can have a 20bb+ win rate.

I get jealous of people living on 38k in the US - with a family of 4 I need a lot more than that.

I can only imagine man. For a large portion of this I have been living out of my van that I converted. Getting an apartment is actually what screwed over my bankroll - which was around 12K at one point. That combined with the merge made winning more difficult.

I have a backup source of income doing Instacart, but it sucks, and is a waste of my talent - plus a for sure dead end.

I’ve stuck it out as long as I can, but with my bankroll being tiny and Instacart putting my vehicle at risk - it’s just too risky for me. All it would take is a wreck doing Instacart and I’d be on the streets instantly. Last month I made 2K on Stars but spent it all and had to buy a new laptop (old one took a crap) - so my BR is down to 500.

I’m mainly doing Instacart right now til I find a job and a place, but will start putting in serious volume again once things get more stable.

What made you think that moving to Michigan to play 50NL with a tiny BR while living out of your van was a good plan?

I hope you are able to get a job and a place. It is a good idea to have a stable income source outside of poker. Poker is best as a profitable side income.

That wasnÂ’t actually the plan. I had already left my job and didnÂ’t have any income coming in. Came with about 5K to start so not a huge BR but enough to build up from.

I scouted the games prior to coming here and could tell IÂ’d be able to beat 100/200NL with the amount of fish on the tables Â… I just needed to build up my bankroll.

That process was going slower than expected. I did make it to 100NL for a while, but due to a combination of living expenses and a downswing in July 22 moved back down. Soon after that, since I was winning 3K a month or so between 30NL and 50NL - I decided to get an apartment. Then the merger happened, games got tougher. Also some bad personal spending habits mixed in (eating out a lot) drained my bankroll. So I decided to move back into the van to save money.

IÂ’ve managed to get my win rate back (around 7bb/100) through adjusting to the new players and studying, and also because the pool IMO is slightly softer than the months immediately following the merge Â…

Still, now that this has all transpired, I realize this isnÂ’t the best route for my future both in and out of poker. In order to live off the game comfortably - I do need to be beating 200NL online, or maybe 50z since volume is so much easier on fast fold tables. And then there is live as several posters have mentioned Â… 2/5 probably would do it, although I kind of dread the idea of trying to sit and play 8+ hours a day in the casino. 1 tabling live kind of makes me sleepy.

Edit: please forgive the Âs. Got logged out while typing this up and it glitched

Your situation sounds stressful as hell. Good luck OP, you’ve gotten some great advice here.

A related skill is being able to identify what regulars are good-regulars, what ones are bad-regulars, what donk-appearing players are actually 'good regulars' but operating on that next 'hustle level' and skillfully give off false impressions to superficially appear as bad rec players (aka Eskimo Clark, very common among skilled lower/mid stakes grinders) vs ones who are actually just bad recs or Johnny Paychecks playing above their grade.

Eskimo Clark is a cautionary tale not an example of a good hustler.

It's not that stressful, but definitely risky due to being completely reliant on my van. It's actually pretty easy since I did a basic conversion on the van which I planned out over some months, and had thought about doing it for years ... so I was pretty prepared. As long as nothing goes wrong with the van in the near future, I'm confident I'll be able to land a job and get things going well again, including poker, and I'll get a regular place to stay again asap. Nobody has ever bothered me either in Michigan - pretty much can just park at any big box store and go to sleep. Taking care of daily needs is easy with a gym membership & there are plenty of places to hang out on your laptop during the day.

That is the idea I got too, from a Google search after 5thstreet mentioned him.

I don't buy the idea of good players trying to look like recs and executing a strategy like this successfully. Maybe you could pull off some trick plays or do some advertising limps at live - when you're an unknown to the other players - but the gig would be up before long. Plus recs love to do tricky plays and regs are already expecting it, we've seen it a hundred times. There are definitely some over aggro players that seem to play semi-competently on Stars MI/NJ - and I do have trouble with some (but not all) of those guys - but all of them do appear to be losing overall to the pool. Even if you balanced some kind of limp/calling limp/raising etc. after some time it'd be obvious if you were actually balanced - and your EV would probably suffer compared to just playing a normal strategy. I have never seen anyone implement a winning strategy in 6max/9max cash games with open limping (except for like 10 years ago at really micro stakes like 2nl/5nl).

There are definitely good regs, bad regs, and in between ... these classifications have been tossed around a lot ITT ... when I use the term regs I am referring to regs that are competent enough to win at 30NL+ ... even if I played 500NL and a 30NL reg sat, I wouldn't call them a fish/rec ... but could definitely classify them as a "bad reg" if I was winning at that stake & they were incompetent. Recs to me are only the limp/caller station types, guys playing 35+ VPIP with big PFR gaps, 40/40, maniacs, 18/9 types etc.

I'm not sure if the higher stakes guys are using the same meanings as I do when I talk about recs/fish and regs.

Sounds like a lonely existence to me. I realize that you're planning on re-entering the working world, but otherwise I'd definitely recommend hitting up the Detroit casinos for the purposes of both better EV and human interaction. Grinding casino hold'em during the day can indeed induce sleepiness depending on lineup, but that can be countered either by caffeinating or playing at night. I've made a living the past few years playing live 1/3, 2/5, and 5/5 PLO, and over the past year, I'm not sure I've played a single hand while sober. I traveled to play a couple casino tournaments during that span, so those would be the exceptions to the only-play-buzzed-or-drunk policy. Poker gets too boring/repetitive otherwise. You sound as though you're not going to lose your passion for the game anytime soon, however, if my read on your tone is accurate

Networking is the single most important facet of poker. Getting into good games with longevity is more important than anything else. The most winning players in the world aren’t necessarily the best by any means

My approach to the game is definitely going to be changing, but you're right, it's doubtful that I'll lose my passion for the game any time soon. The fact game selection is really important is not lost on me, in fact that was my original reason for moving to Michigan ... but in hindsight I made several mistakes.

The biggest mistake being playing for a living on a small bankroll. Even though it was 100 buy ins at the stakes I was playing - I didn't have any other emergency fund. To be fair, my expenses were much lower ... living out of my van and all ... but that went out the window when I got an apartment, another mistake. That (combined with the low stakes I was playing) was probably the death knell for my attempt at permanently becoming a pro. If I had waited til I moved up to 200NL ... things could have been a lot different even if my bb/100 was halved compared to lower stakes.

This time around - it's increasingly looking likely I'll leave MI and play online on ACR / other sites and live ... wherever I end up playing ... once I get a job, I'll have steady income coming in. This should help me play better since I won't have to worry about every single pot.

I'm still convinced beating regulars at your current stakes - or at least getting really close to parity with them - is extremely important, despite what other posters have said. There are a few regs in my DB that are up quite a bit on me over the time I played (a few up over $500 - some up over $200 - quite a bit at 30/50NL) ... which is as much as I'm up on a lot of the recs I've played ... albeit the volume against these players is admittedly quite a bit higher than most recs I've been up against. Money not lost is as good as money won, so long as there are players we have a good edge on. Even if I could get a small bb/100 edge on each reg I'm playing, that should add up to a good amount of money with volume and RB, especially if I can get up to a stake like 200NL. It also doesn't do much good to have a 20bb/100 win rate on the recs if I'm losing 20bb/100 back to the regulars. Thankfully winning enough from the recs (plus a few regs), that isn't the case right now ... but table selection online can be a futile effort sometimes ... often I find a few good orbits before the table ends up full of regs. Most of the time there are at least a few fish on the table though on Stars MI/NJ. If I end up on ACR - it's likely I'll be close to breakeven at 50NL, at least until I can adjust & see where things are going wrong ... also last time I was on ACR it seemed pretty impossible to table select.

not to pile in on you but you play nl50, the goal shouldn't be to play against regs but to make money and getting out of nl50 is the best step towards doing that

money is why you play this, not getting into reg wars

I wouldn't want to play against a player that intentionally manipulates their image. That's the point were coolers and rake start to beat both players, house wins.

Any player that adjusts, or looks at their watch too often, **** that, I'm leaving them alone. Not trying to overheat finding Nash equilibriums or thinking on whether my opponent is level 2 or level 3.

If my conclusion is that we would both end up losing to rake, that's a good-rec to me.

I think a good player knows when to leave these types of players alone, and errs on the side of caution. A good player has patience and looks for the obvious fish, rather than trying to beat one of their kind.

So I'm on team, don't **** with regs, unless they are very clearly bad regs, which is not often.

Just be buddies with the regs, regardless of if you are better than them, and don't **** with them, wait for the fish together, then you can play poker with the regs, while you fight for the scraps. But don't stack off waiting for the fish because you are bored!

Anyways, that's my style.

OP What's the rake like where you are at?

My stakes and my casino is 5% uncapped, so that might be what's making me play a more selective style. I can imagine taking more reg wars if rake was like 3% or had a reasonable cap.

Avoiding the regulars like the plague, is the most important skill, for long term poker success.

I experimented with game selecting sit and go's vs just registering every single game that came along.

When I game selected, avoiding the regulars, my ROI was 8 percent.

When I played in games vs regulars, my ROI went breakeven.

The rake is too high in online poker, to be battling regulars.

If you can't spot the donkey at the table , you are the donkey.

I understand this - realistically online it’ seems pretty impossible to do this - even at 50NL - except on the ring fenced sites. Still, there are a lot of times on the ring fenced sites where tables are reg fests but still profitable with even 1 really big whale or 2 regular fish.

When I’ve played on ACR recently avoiding regs seemed pretty impossible … but I was still able to eek out a small profit & know many of them have similar issues with their games to regs on Stars MI/NJ

I’m going to try and find the softest games to play online which may be Global or Bovada rather than ACR … but also have to consider my hourly - which may tilt things back in favor of ACR due to volume considerations. If I stay in Michigan it will obviously be the ring fenced sites.

In the past, I have hated reg wars and have avoided them for a long time, and mostly they were unprofitable for me because I wasn’t very good at them. I’m still far from perfect but as I’ve gotten better, I’ve been able to break some people to the point they start spewing almost like a maniac … while others I still have a way to go against. A lot of the guys who are really aggressive and starting these wars have big egos that will be their downfall in the war. Some of the most aggressive players are 3betting between 20-30% in some spots but it’s still not that easy to deal with since they’re constantly applying pressure and forcing you to make tough decisions.

I think they can be profitable if you are able to think clearly, keep your cool, and actually understand the strategy you’re executing and roughly what your opponent is up to … but if any of these things break down you’re going to have issues.

Aside from that - there are actually some relatively passive regulars who have an edge on me or who I’m down to because of my default tendencies - and lack of adjustment to their tendencies- who aren’t really warring much at all.

Certainly I will not be sitting at any reg fest tables if better options are available at the time - or if I feel I don’t have an edge that makes it worth playing.

Also will try to be playing live 2/5 asap. Due to whatever job I end up getting- probably will still be focusing online due to time constraints.

I have done some more thinking about this after my earlier post today. There is something pretty obvious that supports my point, that really hasn't been mentioned much (if at all) in this thread.

That would be the difference in difficulty as you move up stakes. If beating (or at least being equal to) other regs was not very important to your bottom line - all decent winning regs would be able to win at mid stakes or higher online. That certainly is not what is happening in reality. The increase in difficulty certainly isn't coming from recreational players ... which leaves other regulars as the only reason why the game is more difficult.

I'm not talking about people who are capable of beating lower stakes when I say recs/fish. Bad regs do make the game a bit more difficult - and although winning at lower stakes - offer decent opportunities to win. Some good regs still are exploitable although of course it will be less and less as you go up in stakes & eventually table selection is once again more important to play at the highest stakes ... but to win at a stake like 200NL long term - where the opportunities to win are greater due to the pool being weaker compared to something like 500NL/1KNL ... I really think parity with other regulars is more important.

In a world where I could play 200NL and have tables full of fish for hours every day indefinitely - I'd say it's not as important to beat the regs (I'd say important at all in that scenario) ... that doesn't seem to be the reality even on the ringfenced sites - although some days are still looking pretty good even at those stakes (unfortunately BR means I can't play them) ... sadly - I could have been in on the glory days of poker when everyone sucked and probably cashed out big time - but I started post Black Friday.

Live 2/5 - it may be the case you can find tables full of fish - probably indefinitely or at least for a very long time ... depending where you are at ... but volume would obv be a lot lower and hourly could be lower ... although if I had the skill to beat 200NL ACR probably would be looking for bigger than 2/5 when it comes to live.

Everyone is always getting better in poker, regs and recs. The people who don’t end up moving down in stakes and/or quitting. Very few people (Bill Perkins types) can afford to be terrible and lose forever. Inflation and rising COL makes it harder to play lower stakes for a living (where you might find some lifetime losers) and pretty improbable to make it to high stakes starting from scratch.

If you know a rich backer who will support you that’s a different story, but also not necessarily a good lifestyle. Ie Dwan and his triad handlers.

Plenty of people can and do lose forever.
Granted most do get better over time and lose less. Now very few can play the stakes Perkins plays and lose forever.

So....be better than your opponents to make money?