Cry fold or cry call?
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
CO: 110.4 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 123.4 BB
Hero (UTG): 105 BB
MP: 101.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♦ A♥
Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) Q♥ 5♠ 7♠
Hero checks, CO bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 12 BB, CO calls 8 BB
Turn: (31.5 BB, 2 players) 4♦
Hero bets 20.1 BB, CO raises to 95.4 BB and is all-in, huh...
20 Replies
No barrel no cry?
I mean villain is a fish which means they probably aren't bluffing that much.
However, in my experience fish also don't usually bet their draws so 86s/63s seem unlikely.
They could easily be value towning themselves with KQ-QTs.
Feel like a 6 is much worse for us.
Calling seems fine?
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Apart from extra fun whale types, does V ever jam worse Qx though? like they suddenly realised its vulnerable on the turn after bet/call flop... I'm guessing not often enough to happily call off all TPTK. There aren't many draws that would play like this either i think
Seems to me like we have a bluffcatcher and I don't see a lot of bluffs
probably just a set at this point.
Vilain is saying that he has:
77, 55
AA, KK
Qx, A6, AKss
77, 55, A6ss are supposed to fold pre to a 3x there. Villains vpip stats can tell you if he is that kind of fish
AA, KK, AKs is probably supposed to 3bet pre. Villains 3bet stats can probably tell you if he has those
If villain has a high 3bet %, he probably is more likely to play spades aggressively
So wether this is a call or fold depends on the range we give vilain pre. It could be a snap call because vilain has 0 hands that beats us, a breakeven gto call (which would mean a fold) or a clear fold depending on his preflop range.
Stats on villain were 21/18/5 over 118 hands, not sure how far that gets us. He called pre so he’s already under3betting. Probably lots of PP in there. Some AQ/KQ/QJ too, but seems odd to jump from passive/showdown mode to 'my average hand suddenly needs full value'
Ideally we want V to be merged so we can value town, but humans play this spot almost exclusively polar.
we do beat some hands though... so idk
Although a small sample, 5% 3bet makes me think that vilain could have some overpairs and isnt too big on taking the aggressive line. So my reflex would be a fold expecting AA, KK, QQ, 77. He could have something like AKss, KQss, QJss, but there arent probably enough of those to justify the call.
Although a small sample, 5% 3bet makes me think that vilain could have some overpairs and isnt too big on taking the aggressive line. So my reflex would be a fold expecting AA, KK, QQ, 77. He could have something like AKss, KQss, QJss, but there arent probably enough of those to justify the call.
It's been 118 hands.
We open from UTG and x/r the flop, I don't think your typical NL10 "tag" player is messing around. Easy fold for me.
Although a small sample, 5% 3bet makes me think that vilain could have some overpairs and isnt too big on taking the aggressive line. So my reflex would be a fold expecting AA, KK, QQ, 77. He could have something like AKss, KQss, QJss, but there arent probably enough of those to justify the call.
It’s not enough sample for 3bet. Gets reliable around 1k or so
You are asking for trouble with flop raise.
Fold turn 😃
I mean villain is a fish which means they probably aren't bluffing that much.
However, in my experience fish also don't usually bet their draws so 86s/63s seem unlikely.
They could easily be value towning themselves with KQ-QTs.
Feel like a 6 is much worse for us.
Calling seems fine?
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What's your basis for stating that villain is a fish?
Yeah sure calling from the CO isn't a solver approved play but if you're going by that logic then hero is a fish for opening 3bb from EP (which I'm sure he isn't). Villain might be flatting their low-medium pocket pairs after observing that the players behind all had low 3bet stats.
I take the point. But wouldn't that make this even more of a fold?
Regs Call Open (free position):
Spoiler
Call OTF- Raise OTT line:
Spoiler
I think it's a fold on the turn.
Cheers slyless.
It's not looking good for thin value here. I think tight is right.
I play in a bit of a spewfest, but I would still sadly fold here. It's just a set, 2 pair, straight, slowplayed AA way too often. We look pretty nutted ourselves.
I would make sure you had a plan when you check-raised the flop. Is he going to spew and we can happily call him down? Is he loose enough that we can triple barrel jam? If not, just a simple check-call is probably better.
I'm folding against a random without reads.
I play in a bit of a spewfest, but I would still sadly fold here. It's just a set, 2 pair, straight, slowplayed AA way too often. We look pretty nutted ourselves.
I would make sure you had a plan when you check-raised the flop. Is he going to spew and we can happily call him down? Is he loose enough that we can triple barrel jam? If not, just a simple check-call is probably better.
Why not c-bet? Players at micro-stakes love to call.
Woah.. so i plug this into a solver using Sly's 14%ish range and we are getting absolutely walloped by fastplaying here.
We should mostly XC flop. X turn as played. Pio folds life away vs villain's turn line. I need to work more on these oop srp spots.
