Ducks Quack?

I don’t think I can fold here, but I am ready to lose to at least one of these guys. A2 is still possible from V2 even though you block it.

I don't think I can fold. Diamonds are out there, V2 could be protecting a big A or some weird draw (QdJd). Maybe if V1 had more money you can get away, but I just don't see it here.

I agree with CallMeVernon and Javanewt.

V2 probably knows the tendencies of V1, and we should be able to discount higher sets from V2 per the action (but of course you never know).

At just over 100 bb's, I'm beating V2 to the pot btjm.

Unless I misread this, we have struck a set against a guy 50BB deep who never has anything apart from AA, KK or AK and then a rejam for 120BB from someone who probably has anything APART from those hands?

Unless I've missed a fourth player and there's a decision between flat calling and rejamming yourself, then this seems a fairly basic call, no?

Uhm...what's V1's opening range look like, if he's generally just limping or limp-calling pre? Am I the only one thinking V1 always has AA/KK here, and is jamming to protect his hand against the flush draw?

I'm guessing V2 is on some sort of diamond draw. Maybe QJdd, QTdd, or JTdd, adding the inside straight draw?

I dunno. I hate laying down a set here as much as anyone else, but do we have to call off $390 when we only have $15 in the pot, facing this action?

If we're looking at set-over-set vs a flush draw, we're drawing almost dead to 1 out. Even if V1 only has AK, and V2 has diamonds, we're still a slight underdog to win the main pot, somewhere in the mid-40% range.

For the side pot, against V2's combo-draws, we're only about a 2:1 favorite. I guess it's a +EV call, but I don't love risking $390, even as a 2:1 favorite, to win $255, assuming we're always losing the main pot to V1.

There is no way that V1 plays this way with AA and KK only, and not also AK. We aren't always losing to V1.

Grunch; how is this not anything but call/put V2 all in? I'm sure you lose to V1, though Lol if he's doing this with some AK combo, but aren't you beating the far-deeper V2 over the head with a stick?

If V2 has KK, gg, I guess...

Fold pre. vs V1 and it's not close, the fact V2 called gives you some odds to setmine but it gets super weird like here.

Rough guess with V1 on AA,KK,AK and V2 on QdTd then you have 30% in the main pot ~400, and 65% in the rest ~500. which is ~+$50 ... assuming ranges are close. Not sure V2 should do anything but shove with 7d6d if he has it, which has like 12% less equity.
I guess call it off on the flop, but the more likely V1 is to have AA,KK the more you can think about folding. If V2 only 3bets AA vs. V1 pre. then it probably becomes worse but I doubt I can find the fold trying to hero read V2 as having KK.

Can someone help me understand the odds I need against both and against just V2 in this situation?

45 pot
135 + 135 + 45 = 315 main
390 - 135 = 255 side

so getting 315:135 in the main and 255:255 on the side?

I think it’s erroneous to look at it that way. You have to call 390 total; you can’t separate the main call from the side call. One reason for this is that if you lose the side you automatically lose the main too.

So you are calling 390 to win the side pot X% of the time and the main (X-Y)% of the time, is probably the right way to look at it.

EDIT: So one way is to take your total equity in a side pot of 510 (510X, let’s say) and add your total equity in a main pot of 450 (say 450Z) and then subtract 390 from that number, and you call if your answer is positive.

Result:

Welp, I was way off on this one.

I hate to post after reading the results, but OMG.

Not surprised at v1's holding, but even if he can only have AA, KK, and AK, you are beating most of those hands. V2 probably never has AA or KK and you would think he likely doesn't have AK either, but definitely has an A here, further reducing the combos of sets you lose to.

There is no way you can fold here.

After my first post, I was expecting to get lambasted for saying I didn't want to call. I do think calling is +EV, though.

My starting assumption set was that we'd be losing the main pot to V1 (AA/KK) 100% of the time, and winning the $255 side pot 2/3 of the time (putting V2 on XdXd). So the value of calling in that scenario would be $170.

If we give V1 AK and V2 AX, our EV shoots up. But if V2 ever shows up with KK, we're toast. Something about V2 over-jamming on V1 makes me think V2 slow-played something pre-flop.

My reasoning for not wanting to call is more about the specific V's. I wouldn't want to add another $135 to V1's stack, knowing he's unlikely to put that money back in play without a nutted hand.

Even though we're probably winning the side pot, something about risking $390 with an EV of $170, expecting to give $135 to V1 just doesn't sit right with me.

I don't understand the question here. Why would you ever fold?

This is like a dream scenario.

Edit: Just read the results. I'm dumbfounded.

I guess just completely remove 22-88 from your pf cold calling range.

Calling pf to fold in this spot is like such a big punt I don't know what else to say.

You're wasting brain cells worrying about odds in a spot like this. The only thing you should be thinking about is Vegas and the Fing Mirage while rubbing your cards on your chest.

As always, thank you to everyone for your encouraging words and supportive sentiments. 😃

What’s the question? You have a set and V2 never has you beat. This is printing.

I wouldn't fold 22 on AK2. It is too likely someone has AK or whatever rather than AA or KK. Sometimes you run into set over set, but you shouldn't fold sets often.

Ouch. High five the dealer.