Aces part 2

I'd call this pretty quick.

So you think it's overbluffed?

It's probably not overbluffed, but his line doesn't make much sense of course. It smells like he's turning some mid-pair into a bluff (TT,77), that's where my money would be, or obv turned Qx. Probably a fold on the whole. I'm totally results oriented in this hand and interested in what he had.

Value story: I had a Q (QJ/QT/KQ) OTF that raised you on this board that I hit a bit more often than you, checked when I made a pair, shoved 2x pot river to get value from TT+
Bluff story: I raised the flop with AJ/AT/66/67), checked the turn on a good card for my range, shoved the river 2x pot on a very scary card for my opponent.

The value story makes more sense to me

Okay this is interesting. Let's say I showed you data that says this is an underbluffed line in the aggregate (I don't know if it is yet). But this doesn't take into account board texture/run out etc. It's just that the line and sizing is underbluffed.

Would you ignore this data and still call anyways based on board texture/runout + your 20+years of experience?

1 vote for fold!

I have a better question... what is your correlation rate to considering only line and bet sizing, and ignoring texture and runout? In other words, what's the error deviation rate when you're removing critical data from a game of incomplete information?

I don't know the answer to this, but I'd suspect it would be high, otherwise this game would be significantly simpler to solve.

Why would TT/77 raise this flop in a 3b pot? I could see this line with Qx barring AQ - QT/QJ might be good candidates to raise the flop. Would expect 88/99/98/JT to bet the turn, but I also think this line on this texture is heavily underbluffed.

idk but this doesn't make any sense for value. My first thought was that this is 77/TT/JJ or some random 8 that got counterfeited, or some random air.

Why do you have to answer a question with a question haha.

I try to combine the two for sure, just having one piece of the information is not enough to deviate from GTO. I try to figure out in game okay what would a solver do and then if I know the line is over/under bluffed I will use that and then same thing with texture/runout.

I can see this being overly polarized though, for example I don't think JTs plays like this.

So you don't think 88 plays this or what about JTs?

Yeah see that is interesting. I think better regs think like you but weaker regs would think that this is nutted (not trying to call anyone out this is just my opinion).

What about a hand like T9s? Does it play like this

Another vote for fold?

I think most people will keep betting the turn with T9 or any other 9, and probably wouldn't think to jam the river either.

This is really interesting leveling spot. I think most regs keep betting almost all the bluffs ott and river card doesn't seem so good for bluffing your Qx improves and rest of your range is bluff catchers.

OTOH this river size is too big even for Qx and there are some aggro regs that jam as soon as they see the check.

Without reads i wold fold. Also we block some bluff for what is worth.

Tbh if i were HJ only hand that i might play like this is 99.

I don't think many people actually play 99, QJs, QTs this way. He's just repping a bluff to me.

77 because they don't know what to do w/ it (not saying it's a good play). And I believe TT on this flop is neutral EV between XRing and calling if my solver memory holds. I remember looking this spot up a few years back because of a HS MTT a friend was playing and we argued about whether it was call or XR (he XR'd), and it turned out to be neutral.

Agree w/ bet the turn w/ a lot of those hands, that's why the whole hands is kind of strange and looks bluffy.

Guess it's just the philospher in me. 😉

I've just seen a lot of MDA posts by you w/ line, bet sizing info, and was hoping you weren't giving a ton of weight to it. I think it's another solid piece of info that can help in some close decisions, but that flop texture and run out are so critical, and getting really good RECENT samples w/ data that can render any solid conclusion seems extremely difficult.

Okay TY for responses. You may or may not have deduced that I was actually HJ in this hand.

I'll post results in a second but I'm realizing now that my play is either really good or really bad depending on how good the CO is. And I think it's probably a punt after some post mortem examination. I am realizing now the adjustment I have to make vs good regs (although he used his whole timebank) is to start using polarizing sizing's with a merged range.

Now being is merged relative, I need to play 88/9x this way to really punish my opponent's call downs. Ironically, I think TT/JJ is a better call than KK/AA from CO's perspective. Okay thanks for the replies.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($247.71) [VPIP: 28.9% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.8% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 36.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 309259]
CO ($312.65) [VPIP: 31% | PFR: 28.6% | AGG: 36.8% | Flop Agg: 44.4% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 23.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 45]
BTN ($232.71) [VPIP: 16.3% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 44]
SB ($401) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 10]
BB ($202.90) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 75% | Hands: 13]
UTG ($202.45) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 12]

Dealt to Hero: 4♣ 4♦

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $4, CO Raises To $14, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $10

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.54 effective]
Flop ($31): 9♣ 8♦ 9♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $8.73 (Rem. Stack: $289.92), HERO Raises To $30.55 (Rem. Stack: $203.16), CO Calls $21.82 (Rem. Stack: $268.10)

Turn ($92.10): 9♣ 8♦ 9♥ Q♣
HERO Checks, CO Checks

River ($92.10): 9♣ 8♦ 9♥ Q♣ Q♠
HERO Bets $203.16 (allin), CO Calls $203.16 (Rem. Stack: $64.94)

You can't jam hands like TJ based on this call. He still has lot of Qx in his range that hand loses value by jam.

You can jam a Qx if you think he will bluff catch with all those pairs.

Where do I collect? 😉

No I would never do this with JTs I want CO to have JJ/TT. I think doing with 88 is good though

lol SOUL READ.

The guy did tank to like 2 seconds on his time bank so maybe that is something, I still don't like my bluff though.