Value to Bluff Raising Ratio
Just wanted to make a quick check to verify if my math here is correct.
So if I am making a PSB, (Pot+Our bet amount)/(Pot+Bet*2) I would need 67% value hands and 33% bluffs.
Now if villain bets say 50% pot, and I raise to 250 total, would the same math apply? (150+250)/(150+250*2) = 62% Value 38% bluffs? Or would a different formula apply?
Or is it 250/(250+250+100) = 58%value and 42% bluffs?
I'm wondering what is correct. If I raise to 250 total, villain is getting 2:1 odds, so does that mean I actually need 67% Value and 33% bluffs?
8 Replies
calculate how much he's risking and how often he needs to win, that's your bluffs
Ok yea that's what I thought so I need 67% Value 33% bluff then right?
bluff frequency will be approximately what the pot odds to villain are
Yep, you've got it!
If you're bluffing 33%, and they need 33% to call, then you've made their bluff-catchers indifferent between calling and folding. So on the river, bluffing% = pot odds.
However, it's also good to note that this is only for rivers. Pot odds compound over multiple streets due to "leverage", so value-to-bluff ratios are different on turn and flop. [URL="https://youtu.be/G5XVN8Up45E?si=O9HWqX0VvhSrHuZ3&t=1117"]Here's a video that explains the math.
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It also depends on how much equity our value hands have when called.
If we bet a merged range, we should have less "bluffs", because our valuebets are sometimes technically bluffs since we don't always have the best hand when we "valuebet".
It also depends on how much equity our value hands have when called.
If we bet a merged range, we should have less "bluffs", because our valuebets are sometimes technically bluffs since we don't always have the best hand when we "valuebet".
This is for the most part not true on the river. The hands that beat your thin valuebets shouldn't be made indifferent, you should make bluff catchers indiff.
There are exceptions but it's a bit of a fringe concept
This is for the most part not true on the river. The hands that beat your thin valuebets shouldn't be made indifferent, you should make bluff catchers indiff.
There are exceptions but it's a bit of a fringe concept
What about this example?
BB is getting pot odds of 34.9% on the river, so we should "expect" 34.9% bluffs from BTN, right?
But BTN is actually only bluffing 31.3%
What about this example?
BB is getting pot odds of 34.9% on the river, so we should "expect" 34.9% bluffs from BTN, right?
But BTN is actually only bluffing 31.3%
That's probably due to blockers, bluff catchers block more value than bluffs so less bluffs do the job at making bc indifferent
