Preflop spot with the big guns, JA! oder nein?
1/3 NLHE 8 handed. Big guns from 5/10 are waiting for their game to start and are playing 1/3 with us.
H - SB. 300$. Has just sat down and knows almost everyone. Has a weak tight image to the good players.
V1 big gun - CO. Covers. Asian LAG kid that plays with daddys money. Tries to play above his level and gets himself in trouble. Seen him 3bet 77 from blinds, bet dark and just button click. The money at 1/3 is meaningless to him.
V2 big gun - BTN. Covers. Young white TAG. One of the most studied players in the room. Knows V1 well and plays 2/5 and 5/10 with him a lot. Seen him cold 4bet KJs from the blinds over V1s LP 3bet. Tries to play GTO. Would say he calls a little too much for 1/3 when the weak players are never bluffing because at his higher level there is more bluffing.
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Loos passive opens MP to 15 (Covers me), V1 3bets to 55, V2 4bets to 135, H looks down at A♠ J♠
Hero?
13 Replies
How much do V1 and V2 have respectively?
I don't think a shove is bad.
Fold and it's not even close. Just because villains can have hands you are ahead of doesn't mean you should get involved here. You are getting a horrible price after it gets raised 5 x, 3bet, and cold 4bet. Each of those villains is uncapped and they can all have premiums in their range. AA, KK, QQ, AK, etc.
This is a jam or fold spot and I think JJ+, AKo, AKs we can jam. AKo and JJ are even debatable, but may be okay if villains are overdoing the light 4betting.
You can cold 4bet with AJs from time to time but cold 5betting would be suicidal.
Fold.
I can give you folding AJs sure, but the above is ridiculous in the context we've been given.
It's not a straightforward calculation because you have to calculate the entire ranges of villains that call and fold. The villains described aren't necessarily that crazy. Our info is that the opener is loose passive. Does he sometimes limp? V1 all we know is he 3bets 77 sometimes from the blinds, which is sometimes reasonable. V2 apparently tries to play GTO and we saw him cold 4bet KJs which is often GTO at some frequency.
V2 is pot committed vs hero's stack, so he is never folding. So best case here open raiser and v1 fold and we go heads up against v2. We need 44.5% equity to have a profitable shove before rake against v2's full range. We probably have a few percent above that, but when you factor in rake and the possibility that the other two players may actually have a hand, jamming might not be + EV. This would be at best a low frequency jam and high frequency fold at equilibrium. QQ probably mainly folding at equilibrium.
Maybe it's + EV with AKo and at worst I'm guessing it's probably not losing too much. But when we're thinking about coming in with the cold 5bet, the bar is a lot higher than you would think.
I think the loose passive is who we actually have to worry about the most, but given the action if we 5bet jam I think we get a ton of better hands to fold.
But my assumption is that V1 will be quite wide in his 3bet to the point where we can treat it like a standard CO opening range. I'm sure this is probably where our opinions diverge and hence the large difference in our opinions in the appropriate continuing ranges.
I think V2 likely knows this so his 4bet range will actually be closer to a normal GTO BU vs CO 3betting range.
So based on these assumptions is where I'm getting the 5bet jamming range.
So I'm taking something like this and just condensing it into a pure strat and eliminating the bottom mixed freq bluffs.
So I'm just going AJs+, JJ+ and AQo.
Jam if losing won't tilt you; fold otherwise. Not the greatest hand for this, and MP is still in there.
I think the loose passive is who we actually have to worry about the most, but given the action if we 5bet jam I think we get a ton of better hands to fold.
But my assumption is that V1 will be quite wide in his 3bet to the point where we can treat it like a standard CO opening range. I'm sure this is probably where our opinions diverge and hence the large difference in our opinions in the appropriate continuing ranges.
I think V2 likely knows this so his 4bet range will actually be closer to a n
You're playing vs 3 uncapped ranges, not 2. I don't like the assumptions about CO or button's range. I think AQ is just a mistake and AJs is a pretty egregious mistake. Like I said, AKo and JJ are actually closer than you think. Solvers aren't really the tool you need here. It's equity calculators and spreadsheets.
You're playing vs 3 uncapped ranges, not 2. I don't like the assumptions about CO or button's range. I think AQ is just a mistake and AJs is a pretty egregious mistake. Like I said, AKo and JJ are actually closer than you think. Solvers aren't really the tool you need here. It's equity calculators and spreadsheets.
I'm using the solver to estimate the situation. Like I said your assumption is that the 3 villains are way tighter which is fine. It's not been my experience so I don't agree.
I've played a ton of hours w/ players just like V1 and you'd be surprised how wide they can be here and if you have a competent V2 who has played just as many hours then he understands he can 4bet ATs, KQs and 99 for value easily in this spot.
Result: I folded. Opener folded and LAG and TAG played to showdown where LAG had AQo and TAG had KTs.
Runout: 7s 5s 2h Kc Jd TAG scoops.
I would have thought AQs would almost be a better hand to make this play with than JJ which seems a very clear fold. I'd jam KK+ and probably all AK here. QQ is probably a jam given late position configuration but I wouldn't be desperately happy about that either. At least AQ has double blocking properties. So either V1 or V2 know that the original opener is loose passive? They should be much tighter than normal if so. A 0EV result seems a fantastic result here.
