Check or Bet deep with the Nuts?
PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 222.5 BB
SB: 103.3 BB
Hero (BB): 328 BB
UTG: 23.3 BB
MP: 66.8 BB
CO: 81.3 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ 9♣
UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB
Flop: (12.5 BB, 4 players) 9♠ 8♦ K♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 6 BB, MP calls 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB, Hero raises to 26.5 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 20.5 BB
Turn: (77.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets 55.2 BB, BTN calls 55.2 BB
River: (187.9 BB, 2 players) 5♣
Hero bets 243.3 BB and is all-in, fold
Hero wins 177.3 BB
He snap folded so he very likely had a missed FD (spades I assume since he called Flop raise).
Should I have checked the river and hope his missed FD bets? I was thinking about either doing that or jamming to get any decent King to call as all draws missed.
6 Replies
Very hard to get paid indeed when you have such a lock on the board. I think the solution is not to check here, but rather ensure you have enough bluffs and shove also when you have a missed draw yourself like 6s5s.
Very hard to get paid indeed when you have such a lock on the board. I think the solution is not to check here, but rather ensure you have enough bluffs and shove also when you have a missed draw yourself like 6s5s.
I don't know if I can find the right bluffs here. Let's do some range work:
Value combos:
K9s - 2
K8s - 2
99 - 3
88 -3
= 10 Value combos
So the river bet is ~75% pot, hence we should find ~4Bluffs.
Bluffs:
65ss, QJss, QTss, 98s.
These are those that come to mind, but I'm not sure about them as everything beside 98s is blocking Villains draws and none of his FH. And 65ss and 98s are often folded pre against so many callers.
Can we find better bluffs?
I think I managed to build a (somewhat) acurate representation of the hand in GTOWizard. Starting Pot is 20 to account for the MW scenario and get the pot size accurate OTT.
Flop is fine as played.
Solver has two ways of playing it, mixing turn between 33% bet and check.
Check Turn, if it gets check back we jam river with the following range:
Bet 33% OTT:
So our main bluffs comes from QJs no spades, sprinkled in with T7s, spades if necessary,
I don't think BU is bluffing much here.
Micropool is characterized by its passivity and inability to fold strong hands.
Therefore, even if our opponent has Kx, we will more often get a call than a bet if we check.
Just take your EV by betting. Check/raises start working well at higher limits against more aggressive opponents.
I don't think BU is bluffing much here.
Micropool is characterized by its passivity and inability to fold strong hands.
Therefore, even if our opponent has Kx, we will more often get a call than a bet if we check.
Just take your EV by betting. Check/raises start working well at higher limits against more aggressive opponents.
Do you think we can get a call this deep from Kx? Then we should almost never bluff I assume
