2023 NFL Conference Championships
#3 Kansas City Chiefs @ #1 Baltimore Ravens (-3.5. Total: 44.5)
12 PM PST, CBS
The way the game turned out going 4th and 2 there was the only chance Lions had of winning in regulation.
But that's results oriented thinking.
What everybody seems to be missing is Lions kicking FG at 24. The best strategy would probably be throwing for TD 3 times, take 15 seconds off clock, then kick 42 yd FG with 1:24. That keeps their options open for onside or deep kick, and with a hold get the ball back with about 1:05. Lions could still win in regulation with TD + 2 pt conversion.
People are dumb. Like really really dumb. Both 4th down decisions were correct. Wouldn't waste your time arguing with anyone. Would be like arguing with a young earth creationist or a holocaust denier. No point.
The 4th and 2 criticisms are basically results oriented.
The 4th and 3 call is fine if you have a QB run option.
What everybody seems to be missing is Lions kicking FG at 24. The best strategy would probably be throwing for TD 3 times, take 15 seconds off clock, then kick 42 yd FG with 1:24. That keeps their options open for onside or deep kick, and with a hold get the ball back with about 1:05. Lions could still win in regulation with TD + 2 pt conversion.
I don’t disagree, but basically no one play calls that way.
---> DET (24) @ SF (10) <---
DET has 4th & 2 at the SF 28, Q3 07:03
Recommendation (MEDIUM): Go for it (+2.2 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) J.Goff pass incomplete short left to J.Reynolds.
This to me will always be the play where context has to matter regardless of the analytics
Even compared to the other plays listed in this post this is half the expected WP so in a vacuum it’s a relatively thin margin even if it’s still in your favor
22 minutes left if the nfc championship and a kick makes it a 3 possession game. this wasn’t obvious enough a call where going for it is a slam dunk whereas the other 2 I thought were
The way the game turned out going 4th and 2 there was the only chance Lions had of winning in regulation.
But that's results oriented thinking.
I was just thinking about the odds of winning if you can go up 3 scores at that point of the game. I never thought the Lions would collapse so quickly like that.
I will also maintain the 3rd down run was a catastrophically stupid gamble. If you’re gonna do that you can’t call timeout no matter what
Its much easier to make the kick up 14 than down by 3. Analytics doesnt take that into account.
What everybody seems to be missing is Lions kicking FG at 24. The best strategy would probably be throwing for TD 3 times, take 15 seconds off clock, then kick 42 yd FG with 1:24. That keeps their options open for onside or deep kick, and with a hold get the ball back with about 1:05. Lions could still win in regulation with TD + 2 pt conversion.
Agreed. I was thinking at the time they were going to burn up way too much clock to get a td. Never thought they would lose a timeout too.
The Ravens are definitely scary. But still to me it feels like the Chiefs having multiple paths to victory, whereas the Ravens only have one: get an early lead and dominate the trenches.OTOH the Chiefs could get a lead and watch Lamar try to come back, which rarely goes well in the postseason.Or the Chiefs could be down by 10 at halftime, IE - Mahomes' postseason sweet-spot.Or
Suzzer nailing it here
The players aren’t robots though. You don’t think the players feel/play differently based on being down 3 possessions midway through the 3rd vs making a huge stop on a gamble play?
Even if you believe in "momentum" and consider it a "gamble play", how do you think in your world SF feel when DET make it on 4th and 2 on a "gamble play" and then are even likelier to go up 3 scores (vs only 75ish % on the FGA)
Fwiw I'm not a buyer on the underlying principle, but it cuts both ways.
So many bad and unlucky plays came out of that team after the bad call/bad pass/bad drop on 4th down: helmet ricochet catch, drops, fumble, not downing the punt at the 1 yard line, more bad application of analytics. Perfect storm. That fumble on the first play after the game closened is so classic. The perfect storm was on right then. Too bad for Detroit. San Fran certainly has no shortage of Super Bowl appearances. I've got a slight play on it but nothing to tout to punters who are too threatened to follow the goods anyway. Never had an opinion to amount to anything on an over/under in my life (that covers all the Super Bowls), true to form for what I am covered so beautifully in Lang's Sports Betting 101.
But converting a 4th and 2 doesn’t mean you score any points. Ask the Ravens who know how to turn it over when they are about to score.
Neither does attempting a FG from 46 yards.
Converting a 4th and 2 from there does however give you a chance at scoring more than 3 pts, as well as simply taking time off the clock and more likely to still go up 3 scores even by a shorter FGA.
This to me will always be the play where context has to matter regardless of the analyticsEven compared to the other plays listed in this post this is half the expected WP so in a vacuum it’s a relatively thin margin even if it’s still in your favor22 minutes left if the nfc championship and a kick makes it a 3 possession game. this wasn’t obvious enough a call where going for
This.
Emotions matter. After that and 49ers score, the Lions were shook. They were care free 1st half and played scared subsequent to the non-kick (or Reynolds drop).
pretty funny to see this place come full circle back to kicking team, establishahhh, momentum, etc
Neither does attempting a FG from 46 yards.
Converting a 4th and 2 from there does however give you a chance at scoring more than 3 pts, as well as simply taking time off the clock and more likely to still go up 3 scores even by a shorter FGA.
Exactly.
Easy for people to concede a 75% fg chance after seeing the receiver can't hold on to the ball for an easy 1st down.
I’ll say this, Campbell takes some guff for the next week but the lions are legit and he will be a god in detroit for this season
If the roles were reversed and the 9ers lost and that was how, shanahan is live to be fired
Neither does attempting a FG from 46 yards.
Converting a 4th and 2 from there does however give you a chance at scoring more than 3 pts, as well as simply taking time off the clock and more likely to still go up 3 scores even by a shorter FGA.
Too many bad things can go wrong. You can fail to convert which is more likely than missing the kick, or you can make the first down, but get penalties or turnovers, or you just get 3 points anyway.
Just take the 75% chance to get points and take the 3 score lead.
This to me will always be the play where context has to matter regardless of the analyticsEven compared to the other plays listed in this post this is half the expected WP so in a vacuum it’s a relatively thin margin even if it’s still in your favor22 minutes left if the nfc championship and a kick makes it a 3 possession game. this wasn’t obvious enough a call where going for
the analytics don't treat FGs as 100% like everyone that says kick does in conversations
Too many bad things can go wrong. You can fail to convert which is more likely than missing the kick, or you can make the first down, but get penalties or turnovers, or you just get 3 points anyway.
Just take the 75% chance to get points and take the 3 score lead.
As it turned out he wins outright with a TD there, and probably loses with a FG.
All of us can play the results oriented thinking game.
I'm willing to concede the 4th and 3 call because Goff is limited.
