Super Bowl 58: #3 Kansas City Chiefs vs #1 San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6, AFC West Champion
WC: 26-7 v Miami
Divisional: 27-24 @ Buffalo
Conference: 17-10 @ Baltimore
Super Bowl Record: 3-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 57 (38-35 W v Philadelphia)
How they got here:
If you followed along Kansas City's offense has done everything imaginable to ruin this for Kermit and the Swifties. So many drops, Toney lining up offsides to force them to play on the road, despite an incredible defense this really seemed like the year Kansas City was finally going to be not remotely close to the best team in the AFC. Then they get into the playoffs and put in some ****ing work. Mahomes scored 14 points in the first 2 drives, a field goal since and that was good enough to beat the ****ing Ravens at home. Pretty eye-opening no matter how you look at it.
Mahomes played on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career (which in it of itself is an insane stat for a guy who is now playing in his 4th Super Bowl) and they put in work. They played on the road for the second time in his career. And they put in work. Patrick Mahomes remains the only active NFL player with equity to go down as the greatest to ever play.
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5, NFC West Champion
WC: Bye
Divisional: 24-21 v Green Bay
Conference: 34-31 v Detroit
Super Bowl Record: 5-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 54 (31-20 L v Kansas City)
Last Win: Super Bowl 29 (49-26 v San Diego)
How they got here:
Holy ****ing ****.
The Niners started the season 5-0 and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team that was going to run away with the NFL.
Then they lost Trent and Deebo, lost 3 straight and looked like total ass doing so causing everyone to assume they were frauds.
Then they won 6 straight and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team and Brock ****ing Purdy was the runaway betting favorite to win the MVP.
Then Christmas happened.
But all's well that ends well and they made the playoffs as the #1 seed.
Then the Green Bay game happened.
For 50 minutes Bork played like I would and the Niners looked finished. Then he pulled a hell of a comeback out of his ass and they won.
Then the Detroit game happened.
I literally just watched this game a couple hours ago and I still can't explain to you what happened and how except that somehow someway the Niners won. And that's cool!
What makes this Super Bowl so compelling
I can see why people hate both of these franchises for a thousand different reasons, but brace yourself for what will be the most watched televised sporting event (possibly most watched television event of any kind) in American history. And it probably lives up to that. Obviously the Swift element is...a thing. And we are going to have 2 weeks of lead-up for that which will be...a thing. But put that aside for a second and there are stories galore.
Whatever you think of Brock Purdy, last year he was the last pick of the draft. This year he is starting in the Super Bowl. Could he have pulled this off if any other team drafted him? Of course not. He fell ass backwards into an epic situation and the Niners fell ass backwards into a lucky draft pick. Trading 3 1s to move up in the most overrated draft in history only to have your franchise QB be some random guy from Iowa who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down? If this weren't shoved down your throat for the better part of a year and a half it's the coolest story since Kurt Warner, bagman, who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down. Btw, this time last year the guy broke his ****ing elbow and yet here we are.
Holy **** Patrick Mahomes. 6 years as a starter. Has made it to the AFC Championship 6 times. Has made it to the Super Bowl 4 times. Has a chance to get his 3rd ring and the ****er is only 28. He won't have Brady level longevity but we are witnessing absolute greatness like most of us have not seen in our lifetime. It sucks if you are a fan of any other team but the Chefs but still.
Rumors circulating this may be the last ride of the Walrus. Historically the man is both massive and massively underrated. His work with Philadelphia was both amazing and unlucky. His work with Kansas City has been nothing short of legendary. 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years with the potential for 3 wins. I would argue he is the actual greatest coach in NFL history.
Which is a good segue into the modern day iteration of Philadelphia Walrus. Ever since the Falcons implosion I would argue no coach in the NFL has more more criticism despite more success than Kyle Shanahan. The guy is an objectively brilliant offensive mind and in his 7 years as Niners coach they have gone to the NFC Championship 4 of the last 5 years and twice have made it to the Super Bowl. And they did this with QB luminaries like the Womp and the Bork. Kyle schemes like nobody in the NFL can but every time the Niners fell short it all fell on him despite the fact that they overperformed to get where they were in the first place.
This game is a rematch of Super Bowl 54 which still hurts my ****ing soul (Bosa was held on 4th and Tyreek, never believe different). These two teams don't have much history but the history they do have is massive. SB 54 kickstarted the Chiefs dynasty and the failure of Womp to close it kickstarted the Niners neverending hunt for a franchise QB that went from maybe Brady to maybe Rodgers to maybe Lance to....Purdy? Lots of trajectories changed 4 years ago and we come full circle.
Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl
This defense is good. Like, really good. Like, really really good. Pacheco has stepped up and the Niners run defense has been horrendous so far in the playoffs. Plus, you know, that Patrick Mahomes guy. Mahomes smoked the Ravens for the first 2 drives on the road which is as comparable as there is to a theoretical matchup with the Niners defense. The Niners have been pretty lax the entire playoffs to start the game and 1. both games are at home and 2. neither teams they faced are as good as Kansas City. There is no margin of error for lazy bullshit and if the Niners bring that energy to the Super Bowl this is going to be a ****ing rout.
Why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl
The Niners have an overwhelming amount of talent. The biggest knock against them is that they could not play from behind and the entire playoffs they had to come from behind. Were they lucky against the Lions? Absolutely. But they proved that even down 17 points they have a QB who is not going to be overwhelmed by the moment and a defense that can still step up when needed even if they failed catastrophically. As good as the Chiefs defense is they have yet to face an offense like the 49ers with as much efficiency and talent across the board as they have. Plus this defense is ludicrously talented. They may take 30 minutes to get jumpstarted but once they do they are locked in.
Gentlemen, let us Super Bowl.
great op srm
Okay that made me laugh.
Only one word need be uttered:
BORK.
Niners get it done, Mahomeboy falls short in the end thanks to the failings of his pass catchers. Gee, where have we seen this movie before? Maybe Pacheco will fumble at an inopportune time too.
awesome op
I can see why people hate both of these franchises for a thousand different reasons, but brace yourself for what will be the most watched televised sporting event (possibly most watched television event of any kind) in American history. And it probably lives up to that. Obviously the Swift element is...a thing. And we are going to have 2 weeks of lead-up for that which will be...a thing.
Very much trending in that direction.
Two weekends ago, Bills - Chiefs was the most watched divisional round game ever. Last weekend, Ravens - Chiefs was the most watched AFC Championship game ever even though the game was in the early time slot which always attracts less viewers than the late game. Up 17% over Eagles - 49ers last year in the early slot. 49ers - Lions was the most watched NFC Championship game since 2012 and up 6% over Chiefs - Bengals last year in the prime time slot.
No idea how credible they are but since a bunch of larger news outlets like Fortune have reported on it: Based on research by Apex Marketing Group, the Swift effect has added $330mil in equivalent brand value for the NFL. Don't know what kind of person who doesn't care about the NFL watches 3.5 hours of a game anyway because they show their idol maybe 10-20 times? But based on TV ratings of Chiefs games this season, it's probably around 3 million? Might be the same people who usually only turn in for the half time show during the SuperBowl.
What's good for the NFL is good for America. amirite?
was in Barnes & Noble 90 mins ago to buy greeting cards
glanced down at the magazines lined up below the cash registers whilst checking out
6 of the 8 magazines in this section of the check-out lane had a pic of Swift on the cover
the Swift Effect has to be a powerful thing and the NFL media peeps obv have data of how significant it is to their bottom line
are you suggesting...
Spoiler
Spoiler
It's almost if the whole Swift / Kelce thing is a big marketing campaign to increase NFL fans and viewers.
There's no way that can be true though.... absolutely no way.
excellent OP my man 👍
Fanduel has The Santa Clara System Players -1.5 and -132 ML.
That's quite strange. Reading this forum I'd think the Chiefs were at least -300. There is some large disconnect between people able to think objectively, analytically and rationally and many of the people here. I'm not sure what that is. But should be a good game regardless.
ethb lives for the troll
fair point though... 75% of public is on the chiefs, this whole forum (sans eth and maybe SRM?) are on the chiefs, multiple members have expressed certainty the line will close pickem or chiefs favored, i can't for the life of me see purdy (vs. the best defense he's faced yet in the playoffs) besting mahomes, and yet the line is moving slowly but steadily toward SF. in my experience that's an indication we're about to be bamboozled.
KC losing arguably their best pass rusher had a lot to do with the line move yesterday when the news was announced.
Before that I understand ESPN Bet briefly had KC -1. The shortest line I saw was Bookmaker with 9ers pick -115.
For example I don't put a lot of merit in Mahome's 2 losses to Brady solely on the fact it was Brady. In the first game KC played an inch close enough to win the game, absent the brain dead offsides. In the SB Mahomes had likely never seen such an imposing D line and he was simply unprepared.
Well that and Fat Andy's son drunk drove into a couple of kids just before the SB, which I'm sure was more than a bit of a distraction.
fair point though... 75% of public is on the chiefs, this whole forum (sans eth and maybe SRM?) are on the chiefs, multiple members have expressed certainty the line will close pickem or chiefs favored, i can't for the life of me see purdy (vs. the best defense he's faced yet in the playoffs) besting mahomes, and yet the line is moving slowly but steadily toward SF. in my experience that's an indication we're about to be bamboozled.
Apparently the script says KC wins. Hard to argue with that
KC losing arguably their best pass rusher had a lot to do with the line move yesterday when the news was announced.
Before that I understand ESPN Bet briefly had KC -1. The shortest line I saw was Bookmaker with 9ers pick -115.
2 points for an excellent pass rusher makes sense, but
a) he went to the locker room with a knee injury vs. bal and then declared out for game. in my layman experience that means decent likelihood you're missing next game. decent % chance he missed sb was baked into the opening line.
b) is charles omenihu worth a 5% swing in win equity?
