Shall I fold my second nut flush on the turn facing a 2.5x pot jam?

There are only a handful of viable worse flushes (T9, 98, T8, 54) and those are monster draws that you might expect to sometimes raise the flop. They might not jam at all now.

I think you'd need a better read to assume she's going to call (next to act) on the flop with just a random 7x, and then jam river.

She has nut flushes, she has 77, 66, 76s. If her VPIP is low she probably doesn't have 76o.

Bluffs could be 98s or 54s (is she calling flop with a hand like 54dd though?)

On balance I think you can fold.

As an aside, I probably check most hands on this board.

RFI is a bit optimistic. But if the table is this passive I think its fine. Why are we betting flop 4 ways? AP I'm folding.

Good point

Since she doesn't play too many hands, I would think she's at least somewhat competent. I would fold.

Usually in these spots when they over bet like that in multiway pots they usually have it. We only beat lower flushes, so I would think she has us beat like 85% of the time here (or more) and we don't have enough info on her to think this is a semi bluff with Ax (which is uncommon) but if it is, good for her I would still be fine with the fold even if she has AcKx.

Question - what's the rake structure here? Just curious why we're opening to 10. Is that the usual open size in this game?

PRE - Opening QJs UTG in a loose-passive game where there isn't a lot of 3B'ing seems fine.

FLOP - On this flop texture, multi-way and OOP, with our specific hand, we should probably be checking a lot. V's are going to have a lot of 2P/sets or just top pair that might want to bet or raise, and some straight draws and / or flush draws that might want to semi-bluff. We don't need to bloat the pot with no pair, just a draw to the 2nd nuts.

TURN - as played, after we got some value by semi-bluffing the flop, I don't mind a raise over BB's jam, to charge our opponents still on a draw. I wouldn't think we'd need to raise too much, maybe just make it 75, but with a plan to fold to a 3B.

When you just flat call, and she jams in the CO...

It can't be too terrible to just auto-fold the 2nd nut flush on a paired board to a passive bot who re-jams 2.5x pot in a SRP, especially if we think she's never doing that without the nuts. But before we snap fold, let's take a moment to think it through...

She may know her 2.5x over-bet re-jam has tremendous FE, allowing her to have some bluffs in her range. She's probably knows that some of her worse value hands still have some equity to improve if we call with a better made hand.

I would think her nutted hands would just want to flat call here, to induce the BTN to also over-call, or possibly raise. If she flat calls with the nut flush or a boat, and you check the river, she'll still be able to put in a bet, so it's not like she's risking losing a lot of value by just flat-calling turn. She loses value when she jams with the nuts and everyone just folds.

Your flat call of BB's jam might make her think you're drawing still, with a hand like AcKx. It's possible she's trying to protect a worse flush or even trip 7's.

When we raise pre UTG and c-bet the flop, our range here has AA/KK, a lot of AKs/AQs and AKo, maybe some AQo/AJo, and some bigger PP's with a club in them (99-QQ) - it's a mix of strong hands that she can target for value and some hands that her bet can deny equity from.

We can fold all our pocket pairs with or without a club, and all our unpaired AcXx hands that are still drawing. But folding the 2nd nut flush here seems awfully nitty, when the only better hands we have in our range are the nut flush and boats / quads.

She can have 7 better flush combos, assuming she plays every suited ace, 2 combos of 76s, 1 of 77, and 3 of 66, for a total of 13 hands that beat us. But does she just never ATs or A5s pre? Does she just never raise flop with 76, 77, or 66?

I think we have to somewhat discount the likelihood of her having every combo of nut flush, boats or quads here, and slow-playing 2P/sets on the flop, but now 2.5x re-jamming for value. I can't credit her with all 13 of those better hands being played this way. Maybe 7, or at most, 9 (all the better flushes, and 76s). Some of those hands are going to fast-play the flop, or continue to slow play the turn.

She could also have 5 worse flushes, two of which are OESFD's, and 2 of which are ISFD's, and 4 combos of 87s or A7s. So she also has 9 hands we beat. If she's capable of bluffing here, or jamming with a worse flush, or trips, I don't see how we can fold.

If she's a super-nit who just never jams without the nut flush or better, I guess we can fold, but our hand is so under-repped, I think we should be calling here a lot.

ETA - we're getting 1.5 to 1. I think that means we only need to be best 40% of the time to break even. If she has 7-9 hands that beat us, and 9 or more we beat, I think it's a clear +EV call, unless, like I said, she's just a super-nit who only re-jams with the nut flush or better, no matter what the action has been.

Also - if this were heads up, or if we raised over the BB jam, I'd be more likely to fold, but she jammed over our flat call with the BTN still in the hand, making it more likely she's trying to shut out any hands that are still drawing, rather than trying to get value from hands that are drawing dead.

You can't fold vs. V3 and BTN doesn't matter much ... so their reads are whatever. But reads on V1 are super important.

Roughly no shot that she's bluffing 98s/54s here, or really anything else (even the most agro. don't bluff huge into dry side pots ... to be fair I've seen some really bad players do it, but way less than 2% of pool and it's kind of obvious if they are like that) ... It's all value but she might be value shoving worse.
Lots of reasons to raise for value with a dry side pot here, she might not realize how deep you are and the size isn't the worst anyway.

If she assumes you always raise a flush there's an okay chance she shoves worse flushes and 7x so your AcKx is "charged" to see the river. Also very possible she shoves nutflush and 76 because she's never folding them and board doesn't look great.

As always there's some chance she's lost her mind and has AK no club or something.

Would lean fold because it would be pretty normal for randoms to have all 7 combos. of Ac*c to play this way and the two combos of T9s/98s but 5c4c/4c3c/3c2c is roughly as likely as AcKc.
If she calls any 7x on flop and mostly raises 76/66, it's probably a call.
If she doesn't have all 7 combos. of Ac*c and 3bets AKs it's probably a call.

I would have raised the small all-in on the turn to something like $120. If she jams there she most likely has it. If she calls we have position on the river.

She can't have AKcc, because the Kc is on board.

She could have all the less desirable AXcc combos though - AT, A5, A2-A4, A8-A9. If she has all those, she could also have A7s. If she has 76s, she also has T9s, 98s, 87s, and it's not inconceivable to think she has 54s.

I dunno - as described, I could see her flat-calling pre and flop with all the hands we beat and all the hands that beat us. This really seems to come down to how often we think she's over-playing the nuts vs over-playing the non-nuts.

The 2nd nut flush is awfully high up in our range, the way we've played this. I'm not expecting to win more than half the time when we call, but we only need to win 40% of the time with these odds.

I'll be okay if OP says he called and lost. I'm gonna cry if OP says he folded and she showed a worse hand.

With the K out and you having the Q and J she has to go pretty far down to jam a worse flush and there aren't that many combos given you said her vpip is very low. So Axc is much more likely.

If she was looser pf I could find a call, but I'd probably fold here.

Good analysis indeed.

To answer your question, rake at this casino is 5% and capped at £11. Opening 3-5bb at tables are normal, with some players opening to £15 (without straddle) quite often seemed as well.

Just because she's tight PF, perhaps she is not playing A6cc to A9cc I'd thought?

If she has a flush, we lose to ATcc, A5cc, A4cc, A3cc and A2cc, but we can beat T9cc, T8cc (gapper would need to be discounted), 98cc, 45cc, 23cc (baby connectors discounted as well)? Or am I too optimistic here?

We can all debate what hands are in her range. I looked at multiple ways, and kept coming back to her having it 60% of the time, just based on reasonable combos she could have. But we're getting 1.5 to 1, which I think makes us indifferent.

If we think she's more likely to be doing this without the nuts, it's a clear call. If we think she's only doing this with the nuts, it's a fold.

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I would expect most people to play A9s/A8s before 32s/43s/54s. If anything people love Axs in a bad way like it's 33/22.

But what docvail said.

I could probably find a call if board wasnt paired, but with the addition of all the possible boats which average 1/2 villains have every possible combo in range it turns into a fold.

KK is even in range. I see people all the time with literally no 3bet range pre. They just always flat even aces and kings. K7s is in range too. Weve only seen her play for 30 mins which isnt a whole lot of hands to determine how tight she is when she couldve just been dealt absolute trash up to now.

Another thing about live play is so many villains will just bet huge w the nuts. They are not even considering what hands will call for what size. I watched 2 separate players on multiple occasions at 1/2 last night bet 2 and 3x pot on the flop with the effective nuts into a limped pot of around $10 and then proudly show their hand.

Lets not give this lady too much credit

I think this is a fold vs. this player. I just can't imagine she is bluffing here. (I can't imagine many players are bluffing here.)

Heck, she probably has quad 7s and is praying you are too strong to fold on the turn.

I like raising the small jam of $25. The bet is just too small relative to the pot.

I lean towards calling the jam, but it is close. Villain could have weaker flushes, A7, 87, maybe an oddly played AK with the Ac. Maybe even just Kx and she leveled herself into thinking maybe you have the dry Ax. Unless your read is that Villain is just a total nit here and not a rec that may spazz as recs do sometimes.

I think we need to be good about 40% of the time here and I am guessing vs the population here we are good something like 35-45%. Without a read suggesting otherwise, I tend to want to call these spots.

Yes it is possible that V has a boat or quads, but most villains won't jam these in position on the turn. Sets and 2 pair are also likely to raise the wet flop. Players on the whole are more likely to raise a hand they perceive as vulnerable. Yes, sometimes people are afraid with a lower boat, maybe the K pairs and they lose to Kx. These players are probably more likely to raise the flop though.

I would call, but I find the amount of people saying they would fold concerning, so maybe I should reconsider.

I just don't see enough bluffs for £420 at this level, especially on a paired board with an all in and another interested player -- and BTN is still to act. If she is bluffing here, more power to her.

I don't think she's "bluffing". But I think she could have enough worse hands for value that we can call here and not hate ourselves if we lose.

I would hate myself because I'd go, duh, she's never shoving w/ worse there 😉 I mean, if she is you get to see her hand and you will win it all back anyway if she did have worse.

It seems like everyone advocating for a fold here says she never jams without the nuts. I'm sure that's been many people's experience, often including my own.

If we raised and she jammed, I'd be on board the fold train. But when we just call over BB's jam, it polarizes our range to super-nutted hands that want a call or hands that are still drawing and can catch up.

And think about it - if we think she ONLY jams the nuts, doesn't it stand to reason that she thinks WE would jam if WE had the nuts? When we don't jam, it could make her think we only have draws, no nutted hands here, allowing her to jam for value with a worse hand.

Let's say we raised over the BB's jam. Would she ever raise without the nuts? Would she even call? Probably not. So when we flat call the BB's jam, we're seriously under-repped.

Maybe she's not thinking at that level. Okay, fine, but we don't really know. We're getting 1.5 to 1. We're beating 40% of her reasonable range here. It's a reasonable spot to call, and the nut flush and boats / quads are literally the only better hands we have in our range.

Over jamming with a protected main pot? Not really a bluffing situation. Never calling. Really not that close for me.