Super Bowl 58: #3 Kansas City Chiefs vs #1 San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6, AFC West Champion
WC: 26-7 v Miami
Divisional: 27-24 @ Buffalo
Conference: 17-10 @ Baltimore
Super Bowl Record: 3-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 57 (38-35 W v Philadelphia)
How they got here:
If you followed along Kansas City's offense has done everything imaginable to ruin this for Kermit and the Swifties. So many drops, Toney lining up offsides to force them to play on the road, despite an incredible defense this really seemed like the year Kansas City was finally going to be not remotely close to the best team in the AFC. Then they get into the playoffs and put in some ****ing work. Mahomes scored 14 points in the first 2 drives, a field goal since and that was good enough to beat the ****ing Ravens at home. Pretty eye-opening no matter how you look at it.
Mahomes played on the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career (which in it of itself is an insane stat for a guy who is now playing in his 4th Super Bowl) and they put in work. They played on the road for the second time in his career. And they put in work. Patrick Mahomes remains the only active NFL player with equity to go down as the greatest to ever play.
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5, NFC West Champion
WC: Bye
Divisional: 24-21 v Green Bay
Conference: 34-31 v Detroit
Super Bowl Record: 5-2
Last Appearance: Super Bowl 54 (31-20 L v Kansas City)
Last Win: Super Bowl 29 (49-26 v San Diego)
How they got here:
Holy ****ing ****.
The Niners started the season 5-0 and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team that was going to run away with the NFL.
Then they lost Trent and Deebo, lost 3 straight and looked like total ass doing so causing everyone to assume they were frauds.
Then they won 6 straight and in doing so looked like a generationally dominant team and Brock ****ing Purdy was the runaway betting favorite to win the MVP.
Then Christmas happened.
But all's well that ends well and they made the playoffs as the #1 seed.
Then the Green Bay game happened.
For 50 minutes Bork played like I would and the Niners looked finished. Then he pulled a hell of a comeback out of his ass and they won.
Then the Detroit game happened.
I literally just watched this game a couple hours ago and I still can't explain to you what happened and how except that somehow someway the Niners won. And that's cool!
What makes this Super Bowl so compelling
I can see why people hate both of these franchises for a thousand different reasons, but brace yourself for what will be the most watched televised sporting event (possibly most watched television event of any kind) in American history. And it probably lives up to that. Obviously the Swift element is...a thing. And we are going to have 2 weeks of lead-up for that which will be...a thing. But put that aside for a second and there are stories galore.
Whatever you think of Brock Purdy, last year he was the last pick of the draft. This year he is starting in the Super Bowl. Could he have pulled this off if any other team drafted him? Of course not. He fell ass backwards into an epic situation and the Niners fell ass backwards into a lucky draft pick. Trading 3 1s to move up in the most overrated draft in history only to have your franchise QB be some random guy from Iowa who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down? If this weren't shoved down your throat for the better part of a year and a half it's the coolest story since Kurt Warner, bagman, who only got the job because the two guys in front of him went down. Btw, this time last year the guy broke his ****ing elbow and yet here we are.
Holy **** Patrick Mahomes. 6 years as a starter. Has made it to the AFC Championship 6 times. Has made it to the Super Bowl 4 times. Has a chance to get his 3rd ring and the ****er is only 28. He won't have Brady level longevity but we are witnessing absolute greatness like most of us have not seen in our lifetime. It sucks if you are a fan of any other team but the Chefs but still.
Rumors circulating this may be the last ride of the Walrus. Historically the man is both massive and massively underrated. His work with Philadelphia was both amazing and unlucky. His work with Kansas City has been nothing short of legendary. 4 Super Bowl appearances in 5 years with the potential for 3 wins. I would argue he is the actual greatest coach in NFL history.
Which is a good segue into the modern day iteration of Philadelphia Walrus. Ever since the Falcons implosion I would argue no coach in the NFL has more more criticism despite more success than Kyle Shanahan. The guy is an objectively brilliant offensive mind and in his 7 years as Niners coach they have gone to the NFC Championship 4 of the last 5 years and twice have made it to the Super Bowl. And they did this with QB luminaries like the Womp and the Bork. Kyle schemes like nobody in the NFL can but every time the Niners fell short it all fell on him despite the fact that they overperformed to get where they were in the first place.
This game is a rematch of Super Bowl 54 which still hurts my ****ing soul (Bosa was held on 4th and Tyreek, never believe different). These two teams don't have much history but the history they do have is massive. SB 54 kickstarted the Chiefs dynasty and the failure of Womp to close it kickstarted the Niners neverending hunt for a franchise QB that went from maybe Brady to maybe Rodgers to maybe Lance to....Purdy? Lots of trajectories changed 4 years ago and we come full circle.
Why the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl
This defense is good. Like, really good. Like, really really good. Pacheco has stepped up and the Niners run defense has been horrendous so far in the playoffs. Plus, you know, that Patrick Mahomes guy. Mahomes smoked the Ravens for the first 2 drives on the road which is as comparable as there is to a theoretical matchup with the Niners defense. The Niners have been pretty lax the entire playoffs to start the game and 1. both games are at home and 2. neither teams they faced are as good as Kansas City. There is no margin of error for lazy bullshit and if the Niners bring that energy to the Super Bowl this is going to be a ****ing rout.
Why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl
The Niners have an overwhelming amount of talent. The biggest knock against them is that they could not play from behind and the entire playoffs they had to come from behind. Were they lucky against the Lions? Absolutely. But they proved that even down 17 points they have a QB who is not going to be overwhelmed by the moment and a defense that can still step up when needed even if they failed catastrophically. As good as the Chiefs defense is they have yet to face an offense like the 49ers with as much efficiency and talent across the board as they have. Plus this defense is ludicrously talented. They may take 30 minutes to get jumpstarted but once they do they are locked in.
Gentlemen, let us Super Bowl.
I can't take much of Chris Berman, even though I gave him a nickname he liked, "Chris I'll never be your beast of Berman" on his show years ago. He seems like Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel ... he wants to be the story himself. I'm picky on announcers. I like Nantz and Romeo. Luved Harry Caray. Go figure.
I don't know if it cost them the game but kicking on 4th and 4 (and not running on 3rd and 4) was awful
especially after shanny played it right going on 4th and 3 to socre their last TD
Exactly this. Converting leads to a free roll kick to win in regulation. Kicking a 50+ yard FG allows the best player of all time to have perfect information on what he needs with two minutes to go and two timeouts.
I'm leaning more towards kicking off first in overtime. If both teams score a td the second team is going to go for two since it will turn into sudden death. That negates a lot of the advantage of getting the ball first. Only advantage is if it goes exactly field goal field goal, in which case it turns into sudden death.
anyone got a take on the deferring in OT? (taking out the "is defense too fatigued" factor)
my first thought was its dumb but if the rules go to sudden death after identical scores for both teams that might change things
havent thought about it much before 20 mins ago
Nah, getting the ball first after the tie score after two possessions isn’t worth letting the opposition know exactly what they need to do whether you score a TD, FG or don’t score at all. They get to use all four downs of you score. Opens so much up.
I'm leaning more towards kicking off first in overtime. If both teams score a td the second team is going to go for two since it will turn into sudden death. That negates a lot of the advantage of getting the ball first. Only advantage is if it goes exactly field goal field goal, in which case it turns into sudden death.
Good stuff.
MJD still thinks the game would have ended at 0:00 in OT if the Chiefs hadn't scored yet.
Anyone post analytics on receive vs defer in playoff OT. I think it's pretty close. Could be persuaded either way is right.
Nah, getting the ball first after the tie score after two possessions isn’t worth letting the opposition know exactly what they need to do whether you score a TD, FG or don’t score at all. They get to use all four downs of you score. Opens so much up.
The crazy thing to me with the new rules is a good amount of games would end on a 2pt conversion or going for it on 4th down knowing the other teams gets the ball in sudden death anyway
especially in a "end of 4 hour superbowl both defenses gassed and usually top tier offensive teams" playing scenario
I would argue for defer, as I think all decisions are mostly already made for the team on possession 2.
Going first pro: on b2b no score or matching score you get the ball in sudden death
Going second pros:
know if you need fg or td
can play all 4 downs
can go for 2 after matching TDs to negate first pro
if first team fg or no score, on 4th and makeable can go for it rather than fg/punt to negate first pro
I think it's close. And ya, I do like that you don't really need to make decisions if going second. 4th and 3 after they go an fg, on like the 25 yard line would be an interesting spot. Or 4th and 2 on the your own 45 after they got no score.
Well, that was a pretty exciting game. Especially if you somehow missed the first half that felt a little like the TB - KC SuperBowl.
Feel bad for 49ers fans. Must suck to be that close for the second time in a couple of years only to have Mahomes somehow win it for KC. Again after a pretty rough start.
I think 49ers are clear favorites to win it next year. But as always it might be a bad idea to bet against Mahomes.
4th and 1-2 of course.
4th and 3 maybe.
4th and 4 probably not.
4th and 5 almost never, except a fake play to draw D offside.
Maybe I am short selling the free roll drive the 9ers get with a KC tying FG. But there is a distance when it becomes a coinflip.
Not much difference in conversion rate between 4th-and-3 and 4th-and-7.
And Mecole Hardman is a 3x SuperBowl champion now and all his teammates sound super excited for him.
I was a 100% wrong on the rules. As long as KC had the ball it would have moved to a second overtime. Explains why KC was in no hurry to run more then 1 play at the end
Still god awful to ever receive the ball.
Well, that was a pretty exciting game. Especially if you somehow missed the first half that felt a little like the TB - KC SuperBowl.
Feel bad for 49ers fans. Must suck to be that close for the second time in a couple of years only to have Mahomes somehow win it for KC. Again after a pretty rough start.
I think 49ers are clear favorites to win it next year. But as always it might be a bad idea to bet against Mahomes.
This is getting way ahead of things and maybe I'm overreacting but I'm feeling 2016 Falcons vibes with the 9ers as I type this.
Are all these guys really gonna stay healthy next year? CMC, Trent, Deebo, Bosa, Kittle, Warner? Is Purdy gonna play this well again? Schedule gonna be tough, division looks somewhat tough
NFC kinda sucks but I dunno, could see this being it for them.
I dunno, they've taken some brutal Ls over the years.....I guess NFC kinda sucks could be bolded probably but feels like the extended grind catches up with this team sooner than later
somewhere out there i bet there is someone is up 7-8 figures from just blindly betting every single Brady and Mahomie playoff game.
