Fold or Call?
Hey guys.
Is this KQ a call or a fold in your opinion?
https://youtu.be/TL79AnEEdBM?si=Il4JBbnJ...
4 Replies
I can think of exactly 2 combos we beat that Martin could reasonably have here: AQ and AJ of spades. And way more than 4 that we lose to (need to win 1/3 of the time). So easy fold.
I think it is a tough spot because KQ guy checked the turn. He under repped his hand
Aside from the two flush draws mentioned above, the other guy could have JJ (6 combos) and QQ (3 combos).
The hands he could have that win are AK (8 combos though a 4 bet might happen half the time or more) and TT (3 combos). I think KTs folds pre flop and 9x is really not there. Maybe 99 (1 combo). I also don't think QJs would call pre-flop but it is possible so maybe add 2 combos. The 7 combos of AA/KK are unlikely because of the pre-flop 3-bet call.
I do think that JJ and QQ fold a bit (like half the time) but TT didn't fold... so there are ~6 combos that could bluff and 10 or so that would be ahead. Given that the shove is about pot size its about even with balanced bluffs. So the question for me is does the shover over bluff or under bluff especially in this spot?
The other question is would QQ or JJ bluff here or check call a potential bluff? Thing is KQ guy could have QQ and JJ would be the hand that would try to get it to fold (for some reason I keep doing that and never win - the KQ guy would call me...)
I do like the commentary in that getting a read is important. But I find that aside from the very first impression when a card hits the board you can be dealing with fake tells. There are some things that people do with monsters and the guy could look relaxed. But he may also be pretending to be relaxed. Often when people lean back away from the table its because they didn't connect with the board. But it rarely happens anyway.
I am very torn between a call and a fold and I would probably fold here because I would basically get knocked out if I called and lost. But I might call because I checked the turn.
I am very torn between a call and a fold and I would probably fold here because I would basically get knocked out if I called and lost. But I might call because I checked the turn.
Great analysis Rick. And yeah, when contemplating a hero call for most or all of my chips I always lean towards calling off if I feel like most of the table is better and more aggressive than me, and they will push me around all day if I don't stand up to them. At a weak table I fold marginal spots like this.
OP, when your only strategy thread is a poll, and relies on a YouTube video by an account that has precisely one follower, both of whose videos' only comments are by another YouTube account with your name, one wonders if this is actually a strategy question or a way of generating views for your YouTube account. What brought me here was a post of yours in someone's coaching thread that was reported, that also consisted of the same question and link as your post here, which I'll be deleting now.
