GOT CAUGHT BLUFFING...GOOD BLUFF OR PUNT?

I didn't read the entire OP to be honest, but I don't think you rep anything here. He basically always has Ax or Qx, sometimes maybe JJ, JT or KT, but I can't think of a single value hand that you would play this way. Mayyyyybe you're overbetting the river with Ax to get him off a chop, but you hardly see anyone do that, so I would just think "nah, he's never overbetting Ax on the river" if I were villain. You're also not betting a T on the turn, you'd most likely check. I can't blame him at all for concluding you took a stab at the pot on the turn and are now trying to take it by force on the river. Nice call, gg, wp.

Generally speaking the board pairing T is a bad river card to bluff because most likely it didn't improve your hand because you probably wouldn't bet a naked T on the turn and would have bet 2p+ on the flop.

Your line only really makes sense with a single value hand and that's 66.

Also, if you don't think he can have Ax here (he should btw) there's not even that much that beats you and can fold the river after he opened from UTG. KQ(s), JJ, 99 that's basically it.

Oh yeah, 66. I somehow missed the turn, but 66 is the only hand OP is repping indeed.

BUT why in the world would he check twice on that kind of texture with an A? That also makes no sense. AND I was right, he didn't have an A. Good luck calling me with middle pair everytime lol.

NEVER KJ?

You realize that KQ and Ax are basically the same hand here unless you over bet the river with Ax?

If you're auto-barreling Ax OOP on that board you're getting into a world of hurt once you play against good opponents.

This is all the info we need. Don't bluff unknowns at 1/2, 1/3.

And OP you have nearly a 1000 posts, you know not to post results, and you know what good strutured posts look like vs. a long tagged on diatribe.

No, I wouldn’t assume you'd check behind the nuts on the flop.

Checking Ax twice here OOP as the IR is not unheard of, I'd say. I disagree that it makes no sense at all.

Pretty sure taking this line and calling river with KQ is printing.

Maybe it's bad vs. population, but it's almost guaranteed the nut line vs. you. So, yeh, good luck to that guy taking the nut line.

Like if you are bluffing turn+river with 88 here wtf aren't you bluffing with? J9s/JJ/99/98s by themselves are probably more combos. than value and that assumes you never have even worse bluffs than 88.

Yea, but he doesn't know that. I WAS the population until he saw a bluff no one else would even consider. And I would say 90% of the time I just check it down. I just got a weak vibe and went for it and don't even regret it, just thought he would show up more with a weak A vs. middle pair which beats nothing because its not like he knows I'm willing to bluff in that spot once in a blue moon.

Ax also beats nothing but a bluff on the river unless you over bet the river with another Ax for the split pot. That's nothing the population does though.

What value hands do you (or the population) play like that except for 66?

If you think he shouldn't have Ax here, what are you doing in his spot on the flop? Bet/fold or bet/call?

3bet or fold pre...mostly fold.

What are you repping here?

V raised pre. You flatted. If you were going to bluff to rep anything, or bet anything for value / protection, you'd have done it when V checked to you on the flop. He gave you the green light when he checked to you.

When you check back flop, it looks like you have nothing that beats a weak TX.

So you're basically just repping 66, or maybe you have 77-99 that are...betting for value (?) or bluffing (?), when they're only beating V's K-high and J-high combos, most of which are going to fold when you bet 2/3 pot on turn.

V could take this line sort of pot-control line with a lot of his weak AX, all his KX, all his TX, and maybe even 99. He's not slow-playing any 2P or better once the flop goes check-check and he checks again on turn.

So every 1P hand he has by the river is basically the top of his range when he takes this line, and all his 99+ beat all your worse PP's, except for those three combos of 66.

If he's taking a pot-control line by checking flop and check-calling turn, it's not to fold when he checks again and you barrel the river.

"This son of a b1tch, all night, he check, check, check...he trap me!" - Teddy KGB

i want to point out that pre is losing probably a significant amount of money with the button straddle / high rake / 4.25x open / skill disadvantage and your rationale to bluff thinking players while repping very few / no combos because no one bluffs big (while putting a whopping ~30bb in the pot) is flawed. also assuming he never has ax when he checks twice utg vs mp isnt right

its hard to give advice because it seems like you don't really think in ranges and aren't look for advice as much as validation. the actual hand postflop is whatever, 88 is very trace bluff ott and very trace follow through otr and his combo is indifferent facing 1.5x. in reality you're probably giving him a super +ev bluffcatch and making large fundamental mistakes about the game / spot as a whole.

great bluff keep doing it, youre just unlucky

I think vs ABC players, his check otf is basically a Q, a T, or a weak A the vast majority of the time. I think if you wanna try and push him off it, you should be betting flop and barreling strong like youre setting up a river all in on the turn.

As played, im not sure what you rep. I feel like check flop bet turn smells like a queen to me, the river overbet when the T hits is eeally weird for a Q, but i suppose maybe you bet a T ott.

I dont think its the worst bluff on planet earth, you read his hand well, i just dont think you repped your own hand too well, and he was good enough to sniff it out. Some player wont be and the bluff will make it thru. My opinion is if he tanked, its a decent bluff. You only need this bluff to work half the time after all, and he was considering folding.

Sometime you gotta rep the rivered under full

I think you need to bet the flop for this to work. I also think the over-bet on the river looked bluff-y to him. It would to me.

I don't see a need to turn your hand into a bluff, you do have SDV vs his draws. He called almost a psb ott.

Do you know what the stack sizes are (I looked but couldnt find it)

I don't like 3betting an unknown UTG raiser with med PP's I'd rather play them for their value so when we do flop a set we make money vs all his premium hands

Looking at this again...trying to see if this is ever a credible line for value...

In addition to repping 66, I think you could have some Tx here on the turn - you check-back flop to avoid being check-raised, and go for value on the turn when he checks again.

But this doesn't seem like a board he'd check-raise, when you could have KJ, and would definitely bet it if you did. I'd think he'd just c-bet, or go into pot-control, check-call mode. If he was going for a check-raise on the flop, he probably wouldn't have checked the turn.

So, if we had Tx here, we could just bet the flop, to rep everything from 1P to KJ.

And if you bet Tx on the turn, what are you targeting for value, other than lower PP's and Kx or Jx? It seems like all those hands are just folding, so all we're doing is denying equity from his folding range.

When he calls, he's repping exactly Ax, Qx, or maybe some sliver of Tx. So when Tx makes trips on the river, and no draws come in, would you really over-bet with 66 or Tx? He's capped at Tx or just 1P, and with card removal, it's mostly just 1P, not Tx. We're mostly repping 66, with some sliver of Tx.

Wouldn't we want to size down here, to get value from all his 1P bluff-catchers, rather than polarizing to 66, Tx, or nothing? I would think even 66 wants to size down, praying he gets spicy and check-raises Tx.

It's not a terrible bluff on the turn, if it folds out 99 and denies equity from anything that might catch up on the river, but when he calls, and the river is another Tx, I think we just need to give up and check back.

you have 0 sdv when you bet the turn and get called vs anyone who isn't fish. idk how many kxss and jxss hands you guys think ep is opening in this structure that dont have a pair but even if they have them the idea that they're going to check twice and call 2/3 ott instead of taking a different line (betting somewhere or xf) isn't a reasonable assumption vs anyone trying to win. its also why betting the turn with this particular combo doesn't make alot of logical sense as except for maybe 99/t9 you're just getting folds from everything you beat and called by everything better while protecting against 2 outs vs lower pairs and i guess not getting bluffed otr.

i think if somehow you want to sell a strong hand here despite having a bad combo to do it with (bc you think people will overfold), you should bet more than 110% of pot. i think if you bet 250+ you at least give yourself a chance at folding out ax/qx/kk type hands and also overbet makes alot more congruent sense with the (very narrow) range you're trying to represent - slowplays, AT / QT?, 66. i said this earlier but if your read is people don't think anyone bluffs big, you need to actually bluff big. here you're just betting whatever amounts and it isn't that much for him to get to showdown, particularly if he thinks in bb instead of dollar amounts.

So what there is to read is the exact thing you failed to read in your second statement. Typical competent regs will bet ace high flop or turn with almos 100% of their air. Once its checked twice, 88 is basically dead at showdown.