Am I correct to assume this GTO Wizard tip is wrong?
Am I correct to assume this GTO Wizard tip is wrong? Even if villain never check raises as a bluff, you can't say any value bet that wins more than 50% of the times when called is correct.
If we are betting into a value heavy range, then any time villain raise us with his strong hands we lose our bet. And that must be calculated into the ev of the betting equation.
Imagine the scenario where we win exactly 51% of the times when called.
Would that compensate for our lost bet when villain is check raising his strong hands?
Only scenario I can think of where this would make sense, is one where villain never check raises us, either for bluff or for value.
In every day spot, I bet even against someone who doesn't check raise bluff, you can't bet this thin and need a wider margin. Ofc against a serial bluffer, you would need an even wider margin of wins to compensate.
Thoughts?
3 Replies
it's a bit of a nitpick but you're right, you need to win >50% after not getting a fold, and getting raised essentially counts as losing
But, you can certaintly valuebet thinner vs opponents that don't bluff raise since bluff raises take part in making you lose EV with thin vb
With a hand that can't call a raise, exactly! Your definition is way more precise.
Yep totally, that point is understood from the tip.
Thanks for the response.
Your thin value bets lose regardless of whether or not they raise or call their stronger hands. I guess a more accurate way to put this would be:
"As long as your hand has more than 50% equity against their continuation range, it's a good value bet."
The main takeaway from this Daily Dose is that the risk of getting bluff-raised off your hand is the primary threat that prevents you from valuebetting too thin.
