River spot BvB
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 2(BB)
SB ($200) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 40.9% | AGG: 69.6% | Flop Agg: 75% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 16.7% | Hands: 46]
HERO ($273.64) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 326170]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 4.2% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 25]
CO ($203) [VPIP: 11.8% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]
BTN ($226.08) [VPIP: 9.4% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 33]
Dealt to Hero: Q♦ T♠
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $6, HERO Calls $4
Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 5♦ J♦ K♠
SB Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $191.15), HERO Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $264.79)
Turn ($17.70): 5♦ J♦ K♠ J♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $256.38), SB Calls $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $182.74)
River ($34.52): 5♦ J♦ K♠ J♠ A♥
SB Checks, HERO Bets $24.60 (Rem. Stack: $231.78), SB Raises To $182.74 (allin), HERO ?
I think vs someone who is able to realise that he has a nutadvantage and is not afraid to take atvandage of it this spot will be overbluffed here super easy. According to my calculation if villain has around 12+ bluffs it is a overbluff. Just KQ KT are already 18 combos wich are on the first sight nice intuitive jams but i think what makes the spot so easy to overbluff is that he can choose any 2 cards if his thoughprocess is i have nuts more often then you and he does not have realy clear block
A+ analysis.
It really just show's how many levels to this game there are. I like your point about SB understanding nut advantage and how it is really easy to overbluff. The sizing is probably a tell that he is overbluffing (even though I said he is underbluffing I think that is incorrect after thinking about it). This happens in other spots too where the jam is overbluffed but the raise smaller is underbluffed.
Thanks for the thoughts.
I can't really explain my thought process, but I definitely don't project my thought process onto the other player. Maybe there's some kind of bias but who knows.
On the turn after he xc a smallish bet, I think Kx/FD/SD are a lot more likely than Trips+ than they're supposed to be, so that makes me think that it will be really easy for an aggro SB to overbluff here and not have anywhere close to enough value compared to what a solver says.
I think your point about him having to x/c KK/KJ/AJ OTT is the most important data point in the hand. He will definitely raise those at a good frequency so that they become discounted OTR.
You kinda did this to yourself
Overbet river, otherwise you're setting yourself up to make the least amount of money possible vs trips
A+ analysis.
It really just show's how many levels to this game there are. I like your point about SB understanding nut advantage and how it is really easy to overbluff. The sizing is probably a tell that he is overbluffing (even though I said he is underbluffing I think that is incorrect after thinking about it). This happens in other spots too where the jam is overbluffed but the raise smaller is underbluffed.
Thanks for the thoughts.
I think pair+straight blocker bluff raises are low frq mixes in theory to balance (very rarely are any bluff raises combo pure), for the regs that are capable of making this play do you think they just go for it pure with these combos? Or do most of them actually randomize and try to balance.
So did he show up with a hand, or did he have some random spaz?
I think pair+straight blocker bluff raises are low frq mixes in theory to balance (very rarely are any bluff raises combo pure), for the regs that are capable of making this play do you think they just go for it pure with these combos? Or do most of them actually randomize and try to balance.
I am doing it pure. Maybe someone like Jarretman can pull off randomizing correctly but I think most regs use it as a hedge against ignorance. Randomizing a spot means you probably don't understand the spot.
Maybe you guessed it but I'm SB here (and yes I am way overbluffing this spot) and I gave BB QTo to see how people would react. I actually really like BB';s sizing if he is trying to induce but it's probably much more likely he doesn't know how to size properly.
Results
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 326515]
BB ($273.64) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 40.9% | AGG: 69.6% | Flop Agg: 75% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 80% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 16.7% | Hands: 46]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 4.2% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 25]
CO ($203) [VPIP: 11.8% | PFR: 11.8% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]
BTN ($226.08) [VPIP: 9.4% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 33]
Dealt to Hero: K♦ 7♥
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Calls $4
Hero SPR on Flop: [16.17 effective]
Flop ($12): 5♦ J♦ K♠
HERO Bets $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $191.15), BB Calls $2.85 (Rem. Stack: $264.79)
Turn ($17.70): 5♦ J♦ K♠ J♠
HERO Checks, BB Bets $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $256.38), HERO Calls $8.41 (Rem. Stack: $182.74)
River ($34.52): 5♦ J♦ K♠ J♠ A♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $24.60 (Rem. Stack: $231.78), HERO Raises To $182.74 (allin), BB Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $80.72
Spoiler
Maybe you guessed it but I'm SB here (and yes I am way overbluffing this spot) and I gave BB QTo to see how people would react. I actually really like BB';s sizing if he is trying to induce but it's probably much more likely he doesn't know how to size properly.
Results
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($200)
I'd guess BB is going to have a lot of mergy junk or busted FD after the turn bet size that doesn't make any sense, so I think I'd rather just call K7.
