5/10 BXB air

I like it a lot. Hero would check Ax when flush card hits turn and value bet it when it makes trips after V checks twice. Bluff targets are weak so 1/2 pot works and looks valuey

Obviously KcJx is a great double barrel but we need more bluffs.

Maybe stone air like 9dTd?

I think 7c7x is a better x down

You don’t actually need bluffs unless villain is overfolding.

Vs a fish I'd prefer to overbet turn than go check bet. That's a line you take when you want to value town them w/ Ax or Qx.

I agree with Mr. Spy, i would bomb turn. Fish always think everybody has a flush and this is an easy runout for them to bluff catch after you check turn when the second ace comes.

Bomb turn and give up river if called.

Are you saying that turn is a good double barrel spot in general? And therefore it’s a good double barrel spot with a gut shot?

If so then I assume you would want to double barrel 100% of your air as well since turn bet would be printing?

I guess what I’m thinking is that I need bluffs in all the lines:
BBB
BBX
BXB
and I’m trying to figure out which class of hands fits best into which.

I think BBB is clearly the KJo KTo stuff with 1 big club blocker.

The debate is between BBX and BXB.

Are you saying that BBX is such a good bluffing line that you would slot all the bluffs into that line and then have no bluffs in the BXB?

Think we should barrel turn. We could have AA, QQ, AQ, and some flushes here. Few if any of those hands are going to check-back turn.

V could call pre and flop with a lot of AX, some PP's, and some straight draws, but some of those hands might donk turn, and a lot of those hands are going to insta-fold when we barrel.

We don't even need to go huge. 1/2 to 2/3 pot should get it done. If he's got a flush, he'll probably raise, or donk river.

If we barrel turn and he calls, then checks again on river, I'd probably be checking back a lot, unless we have a read that he tends to over-fold to triple-barrels.

AP, if V called flop with some AX, or just some PP that got sticky, he may not believe we're very strong when we check back turn. No way he folds a flush or top trips, and might level himself into her-calling with some of his bluff-catchers.

Id probably fire that turn. Should get everything but Ax to fold anyway. Firing river looks like Ax, and id think V is weaker so might work, but i prefer the turn bet.

You could also bomb river for 3x pot and rep AQ A5 A4 and fold out the flushes, but i dont think he has a flush, much less a FH. Of course that could just fold his whole range which is nice.

Youre right, if you hit your straight otr youre probably just checking back, or betting small, but whatever.

thought process is alright but i think bop is one of the spots that gets overcalled and im not sure i see many better hands that fold vs this sizing (im aware we have 8 high but i think like 5x or whatever might find call from fish that limp calls pre). im not sure you gotta worry about over all game plan vs guy who limp calls pre from ep

I'm not saying anything other than "if" statements. What I said was I think either we should be betting turn, or we should be giving up entirely meaning not betting river. I don't know which of those is best here but I lean towards give up in a vacuum.

I don't think we need a lot of BXB bluffs. The reason is that when we are doing it for value, we're doing it either because our hand improved on the river or because we are trying to give our opponent an easier call on the river than the turn. In this hand a river bet reps trip aces or better, but the problem is our opponent could have trips and call, especially at the price we're giving.

I guess what I'm saying here is that you might think you need bluffs in all lines, but do you need "enough" bluffs in all lines in all runouts? This does not seem like a good runout to try BXB.

Well there’s one other reason, which is that sometimes we check back top pair OTT in order to snap off a river bet, and now that they check our hand is good enough to value bet.

Also I disagree that we can only value bet trips or better here. KK and KQ and possibly QJ are value bets here imo because I expect to villain to bet trips himself a lot OTR not XC

Also also I learned a long time ago from Phil Galfond that you cannot value bet (anything bet the nuts) in a spot where you have no bluffs just like you cannot bluff in a spot where you have no value. If BXB would have no bluffs then we cannot value bet. I’m not saying we need a lot of bluffs, afterall a 50p bet gives our opponent 3:1 so we only need 25% bluffs but if we don’t have 25% bluffs at 3:1 then he can literally just fold all his bluff catchers

Now you could argue that he will just call his bluff catchers regardless of how we construct our range, and you therefore want to have less than 25% bluffs in range and I can agree with you there because he’s a fish and fish tend to over call in general, so maybe we reduce from 25% down to to 20% or 15% but if you wanna go down to 0% I gotta stop you right there and turn off the computer.

think youre conflating theory and practice vs a fish who limp calls utg quite a bit. also would imagine kq and kk are too of our least frequent bets otf

like i dont really get "if he will just call all of his bluffcatchers regardless of how we construct your range im ok with reducing to 15% but you should turn off computer if you want to go to 0". i understand what you're trying to say but that statement just means you make -ev bluffs less frequently

V could not fold enough to be able to bluff with air profitably ott, but you can semi bluff with a gutshot since you can check back and scoop on 3 or 4 outs. Also it saves you some reverse implied odds from when you hit and V bets and you gotta crying call his flush heavy range, since he probably only check raises flushes.

Im more inclined to bxb river with something like 5x that blocks full houses, or with air that has a spade like Ks.

Well imagine if the opposite was true.
IE- vs a player who slightly overfolds we should bluff any 2 cards.
And vs a player who slightly under folds we should never bluff anything.

Doesn’t that just remove all the nuance from poker and reduce the entire game to reads? That’s no way to play and it’s certainly no way to live.

I feel like blocking those strong hands (flushes and boats) is more important in the BBB line than in the BXB line since presumably ranges will be stronger then

Edit: unless your thinking BXB with a river OB

People are talking about planning a bluff line (bbb, bbx, bxb) regardless of runout.

In this particular hand, H has credible thin value which is all that is needed to fold out some hands better than 8-high. It would make sense for H to check back turn with Ax.

This river bet is obv not going to fold out Ax or flushes. But a fish who limp calls can peel flop with small pairs, other SDs, backdoor equity. If we find ourselves OTR with this line and action, not risking much to stab.

regretably there just isn't much nuance when you're playing vs the majority of recs who are severely unbalanced in more complicated / later nodes imo. the reason we try to stay close to balanced imo is some combination of lack of confidence in our reads / their ability to notice and adjust both of which weren't included in your statement that i responded to. if you know you're making a -ev bluff vs this particular opponents strategy (use an exaggerated example of him calling out of turn) and you still bluff, i guess meta game considerations absent which seem like a stretch, then you're just making a bad play regardless of how much theory you've studied.

in practice though, individual reads > pop reads > theory for what should drive your actions in game

I never said we can only value bet trips or better. I said a bet reps trips or better. We don't have to actually have that. I would consider thin value with KQ for sure against some opponents.

Another thing though is that in my experience at 5/10 (and to some extent 2/5 but much more 5/10) your first statement is a lot less true than it is at lower stakes. At higher stakes (at least in my experience) people will check/raise rivers with big hands and sometimes bluffs much more than at low stakes such at 1/2. That makes thin value betting less attractive if you might have to fold to a bluff, and it also means that I don't expect us to be able to rule out trips or better from Villain. Possibly another reason I'm not sold on BXB as a bluff.

Well said, there is absolutely no reason to bluff if you know a spot is overcalled.

For the same reason, as played I would bluff all my air on the river. We have a ton of data that tells us this line is overfolded, mostly because population is really bad at protecting their checking range on the river. So not bluffing would just be leaving money on the table.

My 2 cents is that for the most part, bluffing DOES print money, just as a general rule, but you can only bluff a certain amount before you have a table image that even has the nittiest fishes getting a wild hair up their ass and looking you up light. Hell, yesterday i had a gray hair call my $300 raise with tpnk (i was well aware the player was looking for a spot to hero call me down, but i had pair +sd +fd lol)

As such, there is something to be said for finding the “best” bluffs or bluff lines in a given spot, because im less inclined to further damage my already terrible table image (and cause my weak opponents to adjust) if i think its only gonna pick me up a small amount of equity. And in this case, i think the “best” bluff line is BB, not BxB.

Ill also say the vast vast vast majority of 2/5 or below players that are even at a pro level dont bluff even close to enough for this to be a problem. I think the correct level of bluffing at 1/3 and 2/5 is probably a lot closer to “maniac” than people think.

I mean you say population tendencies say people overfold after checking river, but hell, what does that matter, when DONT they overfold postflop?

Some that im especially aware of:

-Overfold to cbets
-Probe on the turn too wide (which means they simultaneously overfold their turn checks to delayed cbets cuz their checking range is too weak, and overfold to raises over their probes, because their probe is too thin)
-overfold when they check a dynamic turn or river card
-hell, they almost universally overfold the river.

And its no wonder why, they overcall raises and 3 bets preflop, and they dont bluff, so what else could happen to their air but folds?

RESULT

Villain snap folds