Important Factor To Consider When Deciding To Bluff
I played this hand last night, and after reading the "Bleff" post it got me thinking about an important factor i failed to consider when deciding to bleff, and if i had considered it I wouldve pitched the hand.
Heres how the hand went in this 2/3 sometimes 10 straddle game:
Villain, who is a legit good reg, one of maybe only 2 or 3 legit good regs, opens to 15 from LJ.
Hero calls on CO w A8hh. I 3bet this reg quite a bit but I elect to call this time w a weak suited ace bc BTN, SB, and BB are fish that never 3bet and will pay off liberally with weak hands.
Just BB calls.
Flop 4 4 3 with one heart. BB check, Villain bet 20, hero looks at BB who looks at his cards disgusted and ready to instamuck, so hero floats, prepared to bluff the good reg as I expect him to cbet everything here. This reg is bluffable. He is a good player, good hand reader, and we've seen him make tough folds.
Turn offsuit K.
Villain bets 50.
I expect him to always barrel on the K and I read his sizing here as a weak hand, but he doesnt want to check and let me blast turn or see a free card. Ive seen him use this sizing before with hands like that. I think about a raise sizing that could credibly represent a KQ/KJ offsuit that floated (he knows I will aggressively value bet top pair here against him) or a suited 4x that wants to get a call and that I can have since I flatted preflop.
Hero raises to $150.
Villain thinks for quite some time, over a minute, and makes the call.
Now I think he may actually have the KQ/KJ and that he will not fold to a river bet.
River Q
Villain checks. Hero thinks for quite some time about firing again and wusses out because he has his biggest winning session ever and decides the juice aint worth the squeeze and feeling sick about throwing away another 300 if wrong.
Villain shows down JJ. I tell him great call.
Here is where I went wrong. He wouldve 100% folded except that 2 hands before this he made a tough lay down that he wasnt sure about and mumbled afterwards that he knew he got bluffed, and he in fact did as I caught a glimpse of the other players cards as he threw them in the muck. I didnt say anything of course, but the villain here KNEW he was bluffed.
I should not have tried to bluff him here because he was now on high alert knowing he mucked a winner 2 hands before. I got wrapped up in what I was going to do this hand and failed to consider the recent action. I told him good call again before I left minutes later and he said he wouldve folded if not for that other hand combined with the fact that there were not a lot of value hands available on the board pushed him to call. Now after seeing his hand its likely he wouldve folded the river if I bet big, but I gave him credit for a king he would never fold.
Besides the fact it's not the best board to try and bluff, I would not have attempted it at all had I considered the recent action w this villlain. Shouldve been just a flop fold.
Dont forget to consider this important factor before deciding to bluff.
18 Replies
Didn't read most of it but what a nightmare of a hand lol.
Life is bleff. Ship all in river.
i like how your takeaway isn't that you punted and got rekt but that he would have folded had he not made a tough laydown 2 hands earlier. if you're wondering why you got called here you represent a4s? 44? 33? most of which are pretty questionable you flat a 5x with and then youd have to slowplay flop
i like how your takeaway isn't that you punted and got rekt but that he would have folded had he not made a tough laydown 2 hands earlier. if you're wondering why you got called here you represent a4s? 44? 33? most of which are pretty questionable you flat a 5x with and then youd have to slowplay flop
I probably wrote too much. But i also mentioned that it was not a good board to bluff too so that was definitely a mistake too. It was most definitely a punt. But my point was that the recent action is a not insignificant data point that I didnt consider at all. The whole point of my post was that this was a bad play i made
I think your bluff didn't work because your line didn't make any sense.
You're trying to rep KQ/KJ when:
A. You don't have a K, a Q, or a J in your hand.
B. KQ and KJ might 3B pre, or fold flop, but would almost never raise turn, rather than flat calling, when there are few if any draws in V's range.
C. V has AA, KK, AK, KQ, and KJ in his range, making your raise to rep KX not very credible.
Maybe you could have smashed the flop with 44, 33, 43s, or some 4x, but that's not very many combos, and those are hands that might fold pre or raise flop, and might not raise turn IP when V bets 2/3 pot.
Your bet looks like a bluff with 65, A5, A2, and total air. I think I probably would have called river with JJ if you bet.
I think your bluff didn't work because your line didn't make any sense.
You're trying to rep KQ/KJ when:
A. You don't have a K, a Q, or a J in your hand.
B. KQ and KJ might 3B pre, or fold flop, but would almost never raise turn, rather than flat calling, when there are few if any draws in V's range.
C. V has AA, KK, AK, KQ, and KJ in his range, making your raise to rep KX not very credible.
Maybe you could have smashed the flop with 44, 33, 43s, or some 4x, but that's not very many combos, and those
Yea it was a bad one. Luckily came to my senses and gave up. Villain actually said the same thing to me, what are you repping A4 and 33? Lol
“Villain, who is a legit good reg”
“BTN, SB and BB are fish who will pay off too liberally with weak hands”
“Hero floats, prepared to bluff the good reg as I expect him to cbet everything here”
Seems contradictory
Yea it was a bad one. Luckily came to my senses and gave up. Villain actually said the same thing to me, what are you repping A4 and 33? Lol
You could have some A4 and 33 in your range when you flat pre, but it's hard to rep those sorts of hands as a bluff unless you start your aggression on the flop.
It seems counterintuitive to many players, but those hands are actually very vulnerable to over-pairs making bigger boats, so they want to fast play.
People will say over-pairs are drawing dead to two outs, but the board is so low that the turn and river are all but guaranteed to be over-cards, every one making it possible for our opponent to have boated up with any PP from 55 up.
Once you just check back the flop, the door to repping those hands shuts.
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You could have some A4 and 33 in your range when you flat pre, but it's hard to rep those sorts of hands as a bluff unless you start your aggression on the flop.
It seems counterintuitive to many players, but those hands are actually very vulnerable to over-pairs making bigger boats, so they want to fast play.
People will say over-pairs are drawing dead to two outs, but the board is so low that the turn and river are all but guaranteed to be over-cards, every one making it possible for our oppone
I did call the flop cbet though it didnt go check check. But i still agree i can't rep enough value either way
I think preflop this is either a 3b or a fold - plays poorly multiway. Flop is fine - the problem with raising the turn is you only rep 4x/fh. You can raise the turn but you need him to get there very wide and then continue firing the turn. If he's going to cbet here and then barrel this turn with almost his whole range then sure go for the raise but that's asking for alot.
just read quickly but don’t love the line tbh. you shouldn’t raise KQ on turn so your value is 33 (3 combos), 34s (3 combos), and maybe maybe KK 1/3rd of the time (1 combo). So, we can simply take 56s and bluff these to stay balanced. you make a good point though abt being attentive to gameflow and Villian’s mood. Also, good to bluff guys who while listen to your repped “story”— just have to make sure that said story makes sense…
It's unlikely that a good reg will bet all his air multiway against a tight IP cold caller + a calling station in the BB.
That does make sense. I may have had a little winners tilt. Ive never run so hot in a session in my life and i had a little thought preflop about folding being correct and convinced myself i could play this hand.
Yea it was a bad one. Luckily came to my senses and gave up. Villain actually said the same thing to me, what are you repping A4 and 33? Lol
That doesn't mean it's actually what he thought. People fall in love with nice pairs. What else he is going to say? I was frustrated at the board, wanted to hit some miracle river so I called when I shouldn't have?
You can easily have a 4 there or king. You double barrell bluff gets through there.
Flat-calling pre and on flop are fine.
The turn bluff when we don't pick up equity is just ill-advised.
If we decide to loft an air-ball bluff on the turn, yeah, we probably need to follow through on the river, but turning zero-equity hands into two-street bluffs should really be a very low-frequency play.
I probably wrote too much. But i also mentioned that it was not a good board to bluff too so that was definitely a mistake too. It was most definitely a punt. But my point was that the recent action is a not insignificant data point that I didnt consider at all. The whole point of my post was that this was a bad play i made
if you had hit your T OTT would you have raised? I feel like most people who call with overs on that flop would just call hitting a K OTT, so i sorta feel like the call with JJ is easy since you rep nothing.
I agree that people tend to not make multiple tough laydowns in a row, but im not sure thats why he called here.
I also dont know why youre 3 betting and calling wider vs the only good player. I tend to just avoid the other good players, i think you can just fold pre and play vs the fish next hand. Its fine though.
if you had hit your T OTT would you have raised? I feel like most people who call with overs on that flop would just call hitting a K OTT, so i sorta feel like the call with JJ is easy since you rep nothing.
I agree that people tend to not make multiple tough laydowns in a row, but im not sure thats why he called here.
I also dont know why youre 3 betting and calling wider vs the only good player. I tend to just avoid the other good players, i think you can just fold pre and play vs the fish next
Youre correct, if i hit the turn i dont raise. I wanted to think villain would think i would raise turn with a K too and not just trips+ here but thats totally not accurate. It was a bad play, but i do think i have a lot better chance at succeeding if he doesnt make the previous tough laydowns.
The way it was written it sounds like i was 3betting him wide, but i actually was just running really hot and he was too, so i was 3betting him quite often but with a tight range. Flatting this hand was done w the idea that I can bring the really bad players behind me and in the blinds along w a nut suited hand. I should have folded pre, but i definitely should have just folded flop.
