Harpooning a whale with 88

Gross. I probably just check behind. What worse is he calling with? Maybe two pair? I don't think he's ever folding better.

Wtf easier bet ever. 125 seems good

Raise bigger pre, over the limp.

I like the flop bet sizing, even multi-way, on this wet flop texture.

Think I prefer an over-bet on turn. The K only brings in AT. T9 was already there on the flop.

Doubtful he's checking a made hand that got there on the turn or river. Looks like he's got 1P + a busted draw, something like KT, AJ, QT, in that neighborhood. Maybe 2P that didn't feel confident raising turn when we bet big.

I'd bet small for thin value. Maybe just $150. Don't think a much bigger bet can get called.

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Are you guys bet/folding or bet/calling?

Depends on live read and my bet size. If I bet the over 250 I can’t imagine folding for the rest. If I bet smaller than 100 maybe I’d find a fold if villain convinced me he’s got me beat.

Depends on sizing and any tells, as well as whether or not we've seen V check-raise rivers before, and what he had those times, but my gut tells me V is weak, so I'd lean check-call.

Based on his description, I'd have expected V to either donk-lead or raise flop or turn with his straights. There aren't too many flushes in his range, and I'd think this V would donk lead with those, rather than go for a check raise.

Not too many rec-fish at low stakes who will chase a BDFD and then check-raise when they get there on the river. Also not too many, if any that will slow-play a straight, then turn it into a check-raise bluff when a BDFD comes in.

Just based on description of V and the way the hand was played, I'm putting him on some Broadway combo that is at least 1P, maybe 2P, but otherwise isn't happy with this run-out, and will mostly fold to anything more than a small bet.

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OK. Bet away. V would have to be an idiot to call a bet on this river from a tight, winning player with worse than 88, but it does happen. I'm not putting in more than half my stack (total) to find out, especially if I plan to bet/fold.

If we think there is no way he has 2 pair because he would have raised that on the turn, then I guess check back. Otherwise jam. Betting an amount in between seems like a reverse-freeroll situation.

I would bet the river - he has all the two pair combos that can't really raise on previous streets. Would be pretty rare for him to have a flush here.

This is just a sizing question, its really hard to think villain xc better on turn or wouldn't lead flush.

Villain called moderate bet on flop and large bet on turn, so I'd probably default to half-pot or so to target kx and some hero calls. Shove is reasonable.

Bet 150 and get called by Kx and 2 pair hands. If he jams we have to call though bc a lot of low stakes players overplay hands. He might jam 2pair thinking you dont have a flush and hes somehow gonna get paid by AK.

As an example, last night I bet a river for value with a set when there was a 1 liner to a straight on board and villain raised river in position for value w 2pair. I called this time bc ive played w this guy before and seen him overplay hands a lot, but ive folded in that spot before and been perplexed.

Pretty sure my answer is best so far. Bunch of one pair hands will fold 150 but snap 125

Result:

You weren't getting another dime out of him -- unless he is that terrible.

No way that guy is folding top pair. I think he wouldve still called more.

I think sometimes he'll just say 'f--- it' and spazz and I would have to fold...so thats one reason not to go for thin value here

?? This is a snap small bet spot, 30-40% pot is good. Your definitely not value betting enough if you pass up on these spots vs described V

I disagree that you would have to fold. Theres not enough to left to fold and villain will feel the same, he'll be committed w top pairs and 2pair.

Going for thin value in spots like this is what separates great players from merely good players. It comes down to being confident in our hand-reading skills.

Very few V's at low stakes are going to flat call pre, check-call flop, check-call turn, and check river with any hand that beats ours. But when we're the PFR on the BTN, the players in the blinds are going to call wider pre, and get to the river with a lot of 2P and worse hands that couldn't raise on an earlier street, but will call a smallish value bet.

K7dd is one of the worst hands he could have here, and probably won't call often enough, but might call if he's really bad. But he could have some other KX we could target for value, and some hands that might want to try to check-raise as a bluff.

The flip side is that we don't have very many nut flushes in our range, so we could be bluffing here often enough for V to flick in a light call.

Why would you not value bet such a strong hand? I like small sizing.

having 8h seems relevant to me at least in theory. in practice its a whale. either way you should bet

It's thin in the sense that we don't have the nuts and it doesn't look like V has a very strong hand either, unless he's somehow slow-playing a monster.

x/call = draw, bet = vulnerable made hand: Seems as if he would bet the K on the turn or even on the river? Still hard to believe he's calling a river bet, but maybe.