NCAA Basketball 2023-2024

Anyways, early reads on the Sweet 16 games:

East Region

UCONN vs. SDSU - UCONN clearly the best team at this point. They've been an absolute wagon since New Year's, Clingan seems fully healthy and back at this point. I think San Diego State can ugly up a game against anyone though.

This year's SDSU team is a definite step down from last year, their guards just aren't as good without Bradley's size and ability to create. None of Butler, Trammell, or Parrish have taken the leap. They still defend but they struggle enough on offense.

I think this is a potential land mine for UCONN, SDSU maybe wins this game 10-15% of the time and if they do it'll be like 55-52, but most likely UCONN rolls comfortably

Illinois vs. Iowa St - Complete stylistic mismatch here. Iowa State wants to ugly it up, Illinois wants to run. Generally I feel like this favors the more organized team as they can set up in transition and force it into a half court game. I feel like this is a total coin flip and don't really know which way to go.

West Region

UNC vs. Alabama - I think Alabama stinks. They have one good offensive player in Sears, everyone else is just an athlete first and a basketball player second. Bama is as always a super high variance team with the amount of threes they take, but UNC's organization and skill can carve up the Alabama defense in a rout.

Arizona vs. Clemson - Arizona is a more serious outfit than the last couple Tommy Lloyd teams. They want to run but they're comfortable playing a half court game. I just don't see Clemson being able to hang with the athleticism of Arizona.

South Region

Houston vs. Duke - Houston freaking blasts Duke. Duke isn't prepared at all for the physicality of Houston. Roach and McCain are going to be hounded and Duke will really need the refs to get heavily involved to have a chance. I don't think Duke has the level of athletes that Texas A&M had that can force Houston into foul trouble.

NCST vs. Marquette - Marquette too good on offense, Kolek looks healthy, Marquette wins.

Midwest Region

Purdue vs. Gonzaga - Excellent coaching matchup. I don't love Gonzaga's guards quite enough to pick them over Purdue. I'm not sure how Gonzaga defends Edey without fouling well enough to keep them in the game but also keep their thin rotation out of foul trouble. I think to beat Purdue you need some athletic guards that can put pressure on Loyer and Smith, but Mark Few is gonna have to go deep into the bag of tricks to figure out how to solve Purdue's offense.

Tennessee vs. Creighton - Again a total toss up for me here. Creighton executes so well on offense that they'll get looks against anyone even Tennessee's defense. Knecht had a quiet game against Texas but I don't know that Creighton has an answer for him on defense.

Nice write up. I'll take a rout, please.

fwiw, the best modern coaches were making F4s at a better than 25% clip

Roy's career: made a Final Four 28.125% of the time

k's career: made a Final Four 28.26% of the time

* covid season thrown out for both coaches, ldo

So there are 2 best modern coaches and they are K and Roy?

I feel like the proliferation of talent and coaching in the modern era just means there's more parity and it's tougher to make it now. I kinda used the late 90s as a soft cutoff for K and Roy, I just don't think it's fair to include data from like 1988 to reflect fair expectations for making a Final Four now.

Great writeups Zimmer. 2019 all over again with the elite matchups. I don't even know how Id rank these matchups from an entertainment scale?

Team I'm keeping my eye on is Illinois. They are huge across the board except for center. Start a 6'6 power forward at point guard. 6'5 and above everywhere else. Not having a point guard could really fook them vs Iowa States pressure, but if they can handle it and not turn it over? Their size will allow them to score in the half court Id think. And if they do get by Iowa State? They are the single worst matchup for UConn remaining in my opinion(might not matter, UConn is that good) and that would be a hell of an elite 8 game.

if we're talking longevity and making F4s at a better than 25% clip (which it seems the topic was about), yes

think how hard it was to make a F4 when only one team (the team that won your conference tournament) from your conference made the dance

talk about "not fair"

OK, now do Jay Wright and Jim Calhoun. Because if those guys are under 25% then the best modern coaches didn't all go to final fours at >25%, which was the original point.

Calipari coming back baby

Predicting that Avila goes to Mark Few & Gonzava

Well I will be extremely happy to be proven wrong and this turns out to be the correct decision. But damn, this is looking to be a brutally toxic season coming up unless something unlikely like Reed Sheppard coming back happens.

But in fun news

CREAM ABDUL JABBAR

Louisville apparently down to Richard Pitino, the guy who go outscored 5 on 3 for like 8 minutes, and Pat Kelsey, coach of Charleston who has yet to win a tournament game in like 10 years of coaching. How is this the best Louisville can do? Lol

Thanks for write-up!

Caesars has a 33% CBB Parlay Boost min odds +400.
I took:

UNC -4
Houston -4
Marquette alternate -1.5
+403 boosted to +535~

I agree with this analysis. Creighton is talented, but really unathletic. They were awful against SDSU in the E8 last year, another team that is great defensively and athletic, like Tennessee.

The teams they beat in the Tourney last year (with Adj D ranking) were:

State (82), Baylor (107), Princeton (105)

This year:

Akron (98), Oregon (68)

By contrast, SDSUs Adj D was 4th, and Tennessee's is 3rd

Creighton has really benefitted from some great early round matchups that hide their weakness (lack of athleticism) , but could easily get exploited again here and it wouldn't be surprising to see them under 65 points. Creighton almost got lucky last year against SDSU, and only lost 58-57, but Tennessee has a much better offense than SDSU to go along with their great D, so I could easily see a 74-63 type win for Tennessee.

Of course, Creighton jacks a ton of 3s, and could get hot, but it seems like a pretty good spot for Rocky Top.

major conferences post-season records thru 3/26
(including NIT games)

ACC: 11-4, 0.733

P12: 8-3, 0.727

BIG: 10-7, 0.588

BE: 7-5, 0.583

MWC: 6-5, 0.545

SEC: 8-7, 0.533

B12: 9-9, 0.500

I'm really not sure where I net out on the Creighton/Tennessee matchup.

I agree that Creighton hasn't faced really anyone with Tennessee's level of athleticism (even UConn is probably a notch below Tennessee in that department) but they just move the ball and execute so well that I'm not sure that's a major factor here. When your offense is predicated on beating your man or finding advantageous matchups, I see how an athletic defense just overwhelms that. Creighton's is predicated on moving the ball, knowing where the defense is going to react, finding open shooters.

I'd be shocked if Creighton put up a 2019 Michigan vs. Texas Tech level stinker in a similar matchup. I don't see Creighton winning in a blowout unless they shoot over 50% from three, but I think they can keep it close.

feels like bama will get blown out to me, granted maybe they just shoot lights out but they play into unc strengths

Scheierman was the only Blue Jay who seemed to want to take a high pressure shot.

The little guy did too, Ashworth 6 for 18 from the field.

major conferences post-season records thru 3/27
(including NIT games)

P12: 9-3, 0.750

ACC: 11-4, 0.733

BE: 8-5, 0.615

BIG: 10-7, 0.588

SEC: 8-7, 0.533

B12: 9-9, 0.500

MWC: 6-6, 0.500

leggo Clempson!

Clemson should be up 8

they didn't take full advantage of this disjointed Zona start

all the elite empty seats look awful (although i realize the game tipped at 16:10 L.A. time)

My sister has her PhD defense at clemson tomorrow, so hoping for two things to celebrate about.