The "When overcards whiff" thread

Prototypical SSHE table. EP limps. EP+1 folds. I'm in MP with K♦J♦ and I raise. HJ, BTN and SB coldcall, BB and EP call.

6 players, 6bb, flop is 2♠6♠4♥. SB and BB check, EP donks.

Getting 13-to-1 I'm not folding, but I'm having trouble talking myself into raising. On that board I just can't imagine folding out naked aces even for two bets - anyone with an ace and a kicker 8 or less is going to want to see one more card to try to make a straight, anyone with an ace and 9 or higher has two overcards and isn't going anywhere. I just can't see how raising improves my winning chances on this board.

I actually hate calling even though I think it's the right play because I still have 4 people to act after me. I think I'm going to end up paying 2 small bets to see a turn.

Am I right that calling is better than raising here, and folding is out of the question?

it sucks but theres nothing else you can do but call.

bet. if you were in the blinds id check. if more than 1 person calls you check behind any turn that doesnt pair you up.

At 9:1 you can’t fold, particularly in position and particularly after you checked the flop. You should fold a spade/8/9 river but beyond that I think your hand is in reasonably good shape and is worth at least calling a river bet with.

This is probably pretty trivial, I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

I'm on the button with A♣K♠ after 3 limpers and I raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

12sb, 6 players, flop 6♦7♦8♥

It's checked around to me. This is a slam-dunk check, yes? I have to confess that before this post I had never actually stoved this situation, but AKo actually has 6% equity against 5 ranges of any pair, any suited, any 2 broadways and any ace. And that's without adding the offsuit connectors and one-gappers SSHE players are so prone to play.

The only reason I'd even CONSIDER betting is to avoid giving a free card to a flush draw or oesd or even a gutshot or pocket pair, but it's not going to be a mistake for most of those hands to call anyway. I also get paranoid sometimes about turning my hand face up, but I need to get over that.

Even if the turn is a complete blank like the 2♣ our equity actually DROPS to 5%, and we have zero chance of winning the pot, so even if by some miracle it's checked around to us again it's a slam-dunk check-behind.

Interestingly (to me at least), if the river is the K♠ we actually have 40% equity. If it's checked around to us on that river, I would have to consider betting because someone with two pair surely would have bet before the river. I'd curse and call one raise but fold to two.

One more tidbit - TT has 21% equity on that flop and AA has 23%. I think I would bet any overpair on the flop if checked to and call one raise, then re-evaluate on the turn in position.

Yes, you should check and probably only put in more bets if an ace or king comes. Yes, a lot of players will assume you have a weak hand, but that's just the way it is. You should probably also check here with some very strong hands, but in a lot of soft fields you can get away with just playing this straightforwardly.

Thanks hardinthepaint.

One more tidbit: Change the board to Q♥8♦3♣ and our equity 6 ways is 11%. Against 2 people, our equity is 31%. Accounting for the probabilities of getting all the villains to fold and/or see a free river that really illustrates why it's correct to bet against 2 but not against 5.

On the 6♦7♦8♥ board against 2 people our equity is 23%. I have to be honest, at game speed it would be really hard for me to not bet that flop if checked to but I would not argue against someone who told me it's correct to check behind.

Yes check behind. A flush draw is probably ahead of you on the flop so you’re not giving them a free card, they’re giving you a free card.

You have to be mindful of the garbage in/garbage out nature of any PokerStove stuff you are doing. I don't really agree that it's reasonable to put 5 opponents on a range of "any pair, any suited, any 2 broadways and any ace."

what range are you stoving for the limpers

Any pair, any 2 suited, any 2 broadways and any ace which is 45.7% of all hands. I usually throw in offsuit connectors and onegappers in there but just forgot this time - that would bring it up to 56.6% of all hands. If you and/or hardinthepaint have better suggestions for a range I'm open to considering it.

In the games I play, their limping ranges are probably even wider than that to be frank. I saw a 7-way capped pot get chopped by two villains who both had 86o. I've seen multiple family pots within a 2 or 3 hour timeframe. If 5 to 7 people are seeing every flop does that mean on average the villains are playing 55-77% of their hands? And when you consider that I and usually one other player are only playing about 15-20% of ours doesn't that mean that the looser villains are actually playing MORE than 55-77% of their hands?

Well, for one, I think you have to assume that most limpers have a raising range. So you need to decapitate their limping range. I think you're probably falling victim to selection bias with respect to just how loose your average limper plays. Just because you regularly see some trash hands like 86o does not mean you should assume that all or most limpers are playing 86o, at least not first in. To that point, there's a pretty big difference between many players' open limping range and overlimping range, and a big difference between being the second limper and being the nth limper.

I probably play in very different games than you, but I would generally assume an open limper is playing something like: 77-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K8s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s-86s, 76s-75s, 65s, 54s, AT-A5, KQ-K9, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, and T9. That's about 25% of hands. Some tight passive players will be snugger than this, some loose passives will be looser, and some tricky players will sometimes l/rr with some strong hands along with some strong multiway draw type hands.

Yep. And you can throw in partial combos of weird offsuit hands if you want to keep your bases covered. Probably more important is to remove the top range hands that would have been raised rather than limped.

I would probably insert looser ranges in the games I play or against particularly loose players but I’m not going to assume everyone is limping with 75 offsuit or 92s

Taking out the obvious hands that most people are going to raise (ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, QJs+, 88+) will have an outsized effect on your equity calculations. It’s a hell of a lot more significant than figuring out exactly how low the limpers in a 4/8 game will go.

I agree with hardinthepaint’s default range for open limpers with two caveats: (1) many players in the games I play don’t have an open limping range and will raise many of these hands first in; (2) subsequent limping ranges are generally going to be a lot wider. For example, I wouldn’t open limp 95s (or any hand), but if I had it on the button after 4 players limped in, I would happily overlimp.

I think you are giving 4/8 players too much credit on what they raise, at least in my local game. Seriously 75% of my 4-8 games players are only raising QQ-AA, maybe AKs, sometimes JJ or AK. I swear some of them are only AA-KK and some limp with everything and may LRR with big pairs. As far as trash hands there is almost always 1-2 monkeys playing 80% and only raising with AA. The rest are pretty much any gappers(god they love their straights), pretty much any suited, any Ax or Kx. I am amazed at what they call with and somewhat frustrated I am not good enough yet to crush the game.

Figuring out ranges for stove/equilab was a challenge for sure.

I mean you know your games best. How many average players per flop?

The problem is that from our perspective, it definitely seems like there might be selection bias going on. The idea of someone playing 80% of hands and only raising aces is a rare breed. It happens, but it’s not very common. And for every player to be playing that way? Doesn’t seem like that is realistically how people are playing.

Yeah, I will admit that it's been a very, very long time since I've played a game smaller than 8/16, and maybe I'm not very well attuned to just how bad people play, which is really why I was emphasizing the principle of garbage in/garbage out. My point isn't necessarily that my ranges are the right ones and OP's were wrong, but rather that the results are very sensitive to our assumptions, so we should be careful to not extrapolate too much.

I took a break for a while from poker after feeling very unmotivated to play. I came back playing 8/16. I think their ranges are closer to the ones that you posted @hardinthepaint. However, I know that 4/8 is much more passive and a little looser so ymmv.

Agreed. Memory bias to "wtf I lost to that" to a rec may imprint on other recs and we will think more play that way than actually do.

I play mostly during the days on Sundays and once during a good HH promo during the week. When I stay later the player comp changes and while still loose not as crazy wtf as some of the daytime recs/bored retirees.

Driving the extra 15 mins to the local 'big games' casino and playing some 8/16 would probably help my perspective.

At WinStar, the players that play 75%+ of their hands either never raise pre or only raise AA, maybe KK, and rarely QQ. It’s an interesting dynamic.

Same at my 4/8 game for the 80% any 2/limp team.