No time to get down cause I'm movin' up... check out these crabs in the bucket
1/3 NLHE 7 handed.
V1 - Whale who's been blowing his massive stack off to various players. Loose passive and button-clicky. Minclicks a lot. Calls a lot. Has all kinds of nonsense hands. VPIP/PFR/3b of about 50/35/15 and always minclicking. Donking a lot. K3o on a T-6-3-J-J for a donk-donk-donk line OOP type thing. Covers. SB.
V2 - Unknown loose passive but not overly sticky. Seems ABC post so far. Have 4 hours with him now. He doubled up through V1 earlier on a 9-9-7 board with KK when V1 the humpback went breaching into him through his blowhole. ~900$. BB.
V3 - Loose passive who's been losing and getting a bit titled. "Just need one good hand to double up and then I'll be unstuck". 300$. CO.
H - Also doubled up through the baleen beluga and has just been playing a tight quiet game since because he wants to watch tv and book a win. 777$. BTN.
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Folds to V3 who opens to 6, H calls next to act with 3♣ 3♥, V1 looks like he wants to raise but then decides against it and calls 6$, V2 calls. 4-ways IP.
Flop 20 - 7♣ 6♦ 3♠
V1 checks, V2 checks, V3 bets 10, Hero raises to 30, V1 calls 30, V2 looks like he wants to fold, pushing his cards around and rechecking them and then x/raises to 130, V3 folds, Hero calls, V1 calls.
Turn 415 (641 back H eff) - K♥
V1 checks, V2 all-in for ~800, Hero?
This is a huge tell of strength and I might find the exploit fold for that reason. I assume gto snap calls
Loose passive player suddenly wants to play for stacks, I'M OUT.
He probably has every 54 combo including offsuit and he has the bigger sets. Snap fold.
Fold.
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Folding a set is Way easier on 2p2 than in practice.
Call. Not sure what he's up to but his line doesnt add up with his strategy; he x/r flop with a normal sizing like one would expect with value or a huge draw. But then he uses a very nonstandard turn line not aligned with his history of making normal sized bets, therefore he's breaking gameflow and trying to do something fancy. If he had a history of betting like this with big hands then we could make a read but he's doing something new therefore a set goes up massively in value against him. My guess is he flopped OESD and is going for max pressure on the turn.
It seems to me (but that's just me, thankfully for me) that this is an easy fold vs her 45. If I was wrong, then she wasn't represented correctly in her read.
What am I missing here?
V2 is a loose passive ABC player who did a little hollywooding before he check raised flop in a multi-way pot, behind a bet by the PFR and a raise from hero in the field, got not one but two callers, and then jams a disconnected high card / brick turn for 1.5x pot (hero eff. stack), or 2x pot against a mega-whale.
How in the serious f**k is V2 ever bluffing or doing this with worse value? MAYBE he shows up here with 76 at some super low frequency, but I'd expect 54 about ten times as often.
Even if we give both V's every combo of K7, 98, 85, 76, and 54, how good are we doing against both those ranges, if we call and V1 over-calls?
I can't imagine V2's range is that wide. It's probably just 54, 76, and better sets. I can easily imagine V1 calling off with every draw and 2P combo possible. So V2 looks pretty nutted, and V1 is drawing live. We're just hoping to boat up, but not get boat-over-boated.
I hate folding sets, but if ever there was a spot to fold one, this looks like it.
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His flop sizing. $130 is a calculated bet size. It means V knows whats in the pot and uses traditional multiplier sizing. Then in the blink of an eye deviates from this strategy and uses an overbet that puts them allin. He's using a mixed strat all within the sequence of a single hand, nobody does this. Whenever a fish makes dramatic deviations in the same hand then they are doing something fishy and all logic and reason goes out the window.
You guys are thinking of only hands that beat you, think of hands that we beat that someone does this with. There's actually more air or horribly played valuebluffs than there are nuts that fly off the rails.
You guys are thinking of only hands that beat you, think of hands that we beat that someone does this with.
I think his value bets that beat us are about 90% of his range here as played so even if he shows us two pair if we fold I would still be happy with my decision. No one can play perfect poker and be right all the time (just the vast majority of the time). Even if he was a total unknown playing his first hand I would still most likely fold in this spot.
His flop sizing. $130 is a calculated bet size. It means V knows whats in the pot and uses traditional multiplier sizing. Then in the blink of an eye deviates from this strategy and uses an overbet that puts them allin. He's using a mixed strat all within the sequence of a single hand, nobody does this. Whenever a fish makes dramatic deviations in the same hand then they are doing something fishy and all logic and reason goes out the window.
You guys are thinking of only hands that beat you, thin
I think you are missing the fact that villain is passive. Passive players dont blast off with draws or weak hands. They call down. Passive fish bet huge when they have huge hands.
It seems to me (but that's just me, thankfully for me) that this is an easy fold vs her 45. If I was wrong, then she wasn't represented correctly in her read.
Well, for starters she was represented as a he, so maybe you're reading too much into OP's reads. Which would be a mistake to begin with in my opinion. OP's reads are often far too specific and elaborate for the amount of hours they're based on. And not seldomly the showdown that's provided later turns out to contradict those reads. They're mostly fun to read and probably not meaningless altogether, but I still wouldn't put too much stock in them.
Well, for starters she was represented as a he, so maybe you're reading too much into OP's reads. Which would be a mistake to begin with in my opinion. OP's reads are often far too specific and elaborate for the amount of hours they're based on. And not seldomly the showdown that's provided later turns out to contradict those reads. They're mostly fun to read and probably not meaningless altogether, but I still wouldn't put too much stock in them.
That's why I said even if he was a total unknown, players don't usually c/r someone otf in a 3 way 3bet pot (AFTER he pretended to wanna fold) and then 2x jam the turn with hands we beat. If it was done with at least a set, we're smoked, but these kinds of plays are usually nothing less than the nuts (especially when KK is in hero's 3betting range pre).
i'm priced in to call the 130 in hopes the board pairs but even then still not loving life
K turn and continues blasting means I fold
the old "idk I hate my hand perhaps I should fold... nah I'll raise" is the pure nuts 9/10 times at these stakes
His flop sizing. $130 is a calculated bet size. It means V knows whats in the pot and uses traditional multiplier sizing. Then in the blink of an eye deviates from this strategy and uses an overbet that puts them allin. He's using a mixed strat all within the sequence of a single hand, nobody does this. Whenever a fish makes dramatic deviations in the same hand then they are doing something fishy and all logic and reason goes out the window.
You guys are thinking of only hands that beat you, thin
I think you're giving V too much credit. Someone bet $30, and he added $100 on top. Doesn't seem to me like he's necessarily doing a lot of mental math to come up with the GTO raise size.
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That's why I said even if he was a total unknown, players don't usually c/r someone otf in a 3 way 3bet pot (AFTER he pretended to wanna fold) and then 2x jam the turn with hands we beat. If it was done with at least a set, we're smoked, but these kinds of plays are usually nothing less than the nuts (especially when KK is in hero's 3betting range pre).
What 3bet pot?
I should mention, V2 is not stuck at this point he's up ~500$ or 600$ from his 300$ BI
Also when I say he looked like he wanted to fold I don't mean there was some cheesy act like "ehhh well I dunnoooo okay raise!" it was more like lifting his cards and pushing them around with one hand and my live vibe was "okay he folds lets see what PFR does" and my glance went back to the PFR in the CO on my right and then I heard the dealer say "raise" and looked back surprised to see the guy raising.
Call. Not sure what he's up to but his line doesnt add up with his strategy; he x/r flop with a normal sizing like one would expect with value or a huge draw. But then he uses a very nonstandard turn line not aligned with his history of making normal sized bets, therefore he's breaking gameflow and trying to do something fancy. If he had a history of betting like this with big hands then we could make a read but he's doing something new therefore a set goes up massively in value against him. My
At first, I was "snap-fold, duh." But this makes a lot of sense. By doing this, V has to know they're blasting the donking, min-clicky whale out of the pot. Why do that? Clearly H has something they like, raise-calling. No hand can +EV call this bet hoping to beat a straight on the river.
Stacks are such where a 200-250 bet on the turn will make getting the rest of the money trivial on the river.
So why go nuts here, unless you don't want a call? Granted, LP fish will sometimes think, "That's big enough!," and do something to shut the hand down right now. Maybe this is a case of that? But I now want to call. (And then berate myself for being stupid when V flips over 54o)
Also when I say he looked like he wanted to fold I don't mean there was some cheesy act like "ehhh well I dunnoooo okay raise!" it was more like lifting his cards and pushing them around with one hand and my live vibe was "okay he folds lets see what PFR does" and my glance went back to the PFR in the CO on my right and then I heard the dealer say "raise" and looked back surprised to see the guy raising.
important disclosure for sure, but this changes it from a 99.9% of pure nuts to a 90% IMO, he may not be doing the Matt Damon but he considered it
decently tough spot to be honest. would call the turn unless i had a reason not to but i dont think its like an unfoldable situation or anything.
your flop raise sizing is too small the first time
Result:
Spoiler
I puke call. Whale folds. He shows 45♦♦. River K♣
I think its a fold in hindsight but when I run a monte carlo with a range of 76o/s, 77, 66, 45o/s I get 38% equity OTT so I guess with 37.7% needed its actually just barely eeking out.
