Turned three jackals on dangerous board, go for value?
1/3 NLHE 8 handed.
V - Maniac. VPIP about 80-90%. Always straddling. Blind opening 25 sometimes. Coming in for a raise on every straddle. Everyone else at the table is a mix of tight passive and loose passive and they're all trying to trap him. He's just bet-fold-bet-fold-bet fold mode. He can x/raise light and calls a lot when people push back with aggression (so he's kind of a whale in that sense). He punted a BI earlier and rebought and now ran it deepish ~900$. Covers the table anyway. Table is drinking and happy. V has showndown hands like K2o, Q2s, KTo, and 87o. He's the kind of guy that's really dangerous when he wakes up with a real hand because people just put it AI with him with any pair. Covers. BB.
H - Just came over from another table that broke. Has a tight nitty image to V from being short stacked and card dead. Has been stuck all night and just wants to get even and go home. He's in for 7 hours now and down about 100$. H 3-bet V earlier (3 orbits ago) when he cold opened 15 and got 3 callers IP, H made it 75 from the BB with JJ and everyone folded. H was nursing the shortest stack (~250$) at the table before doubling up through a drunk and now has about 550$. CO.
HH - (would like advice) - 6 handed, V straddles BTN, H opens HJ to 20, V calls, HU OOP. H has A♦ K♣ and only 265$ back, 285$ to start the hand. Flop 40 - 7-4-2r. Check check. Turn 40 - 7 two spades. H checks, V overbets 65, H folds, deciding to wait for a better spot?
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Somehow no one straddles - Folds to loose passive indian who limps HJ, H sees J♣ J♥ and opens to 15, SB station calls, V calls BB. 4 ways IP.
Flop 60 - Q♠ 7♠ 2♣
Checks through
Turn 60 - J♠
Check, check, check, H bets 20, only V calls, HU.
River 100 - 9♣
V checks, Hero?
played fine but could conceivably size up ott. from a hand reading perspective what % of the time do you think you're beaten facing this line when it gets x to u otr? i cant imagine its more than like 10-15% of the time and i think its very close to 0 vs most people
you should try to respond this. im pretty sure your hand is strong enough to overbet (if you wanted) given the answer to this
you should try to respond this. im pretty sure your hand is strong enough to overbet (if you wanted) given the answer to this
played fine but could conceivably size up ott. from a hand reading perspective what % of the time do you think you're beaten facing this line when it gets x to u otr? i cant imagine its more than like 10-15% of the time and i think its very close to 0 vs most people
I'll give it a shot...
I agree the turn bet not only could be bigger, I'll go a step further and say it should be bigger. I didn't mention it because the main question seemed to be about our action on the river.
To be fair, I could see betting small on turn to induce a maniac V to raise as a bluff. But I don't think I'd do it with a turned set that also completes a straight and flush draw, if only because I'd expect even a maniac wouldn't raise without some potential to improve on the river. And I'm not thrilled to bet small, get raised, 3B, and get jammed on, which could easily happen if V is as maniacal as described.
As played, I don't think we're beat on the river very often. I wouldn't want to try to guess at a percentage of time. I'd rather just say "very likely" or "very unlikely", and here, I think it's very unlikely we're beat.
My thinking is that maniacs are more likely to bluff turn or river here than slow-play a made hand. The value in being a maniac is that your value bets get called light.
Didn't want to beat up on our friendly neighborhood banana, but his logic seems to be "V could show up here, and check-raise jam with anything, so I don't want to bet for value and get raised off my hand," and I just don't see that as a good enough reason not to try to get more value on turn, and some sort of value on the river.
Reasoning is just what I said - I think V is going to raise turn for value, or donk-lead river for value, probably 3x-4x as often as he'd flat-call turn / check-raise river for value.
And if he did check-raise for value, I'd expect it to be a jam, whereas if he check-raises as a bluff, I'd expect it to be for less, because no matter what size he takes, he's bluffing, and we'll be calling wide, because he's a maniac.
So, I'd like a bigger bet on turn, and around a half-pot bet on the river. I'm willing to call off a ~3x-4x raise, but probably not an all-in jam. If he x/r-jams and shows me a bluff when I fold, so be it. We'll get here with stronger hands that can call.
well how often we're beat directly impacts the decision to bet and the size we choose. i don't think we're beat very often, and id imagine he xr the river something like 0-10% of the time yet op is acting like he is not only going to get checkraised 50+% of the time, but is unable to bet / call it off. i dont really understand how the idea that hes going to massively overbluff x/r the river (any asxo, any ksxo, any tsxo) would discourage u from betting. if anything you'd be absolutely printing by bet / calling. this guy check raising all in on 559 5 with 88 doesn't make him dangerous, it makes him one of the biggest spots you will ever play against lol
