The World's Easiest Shove or Easiest Call?

I like river. Turn seems like a bet or XR, hard to have bluffs as BTN

I would never shove here, seems much much closer to a fold

why check turn?????

I think fold/call > shove

We probably have to call because we beat other boats. But we don't beat all of them so jamming presumes they have all 88/JJ and call off enough Ax which I'm not even convinced 3b otr. This all applies to calling too but calling is cheaper so wins.

After you go large on flop i think betting again on turn is best to get value from fd, Ax, AT, JT, KJ type hands because I dont think they bet enough on the turn after our flop sizing. I assume you were going for XR.

I think just call on river, but I dont know why hes not betting A8 or AJ on the turn. Just being tricky I guess. The only boat he should have that we beat is 88 but i dont know why he would check turn with that either. I wonder if its possible hes overplaying a straight...

Shove would prob be a punt this deep with no reads

Bluffing makes zero sense from villain's perspective since virtually no one is bluffing at this level for such a massive raise sizing, nor are they really going to be folding any of their value raises against another raise, so I think it's going to be value a vast majority of the time from BTN

So unless they're massively overplaying a straight or are an actual whale who is going to call pre with A3o and think it's the nuts otr, this might realistically be a fold. Think your avg player is just gonna have AJ/AQ here almost always and isn't going to 3b a straight when you're only really repping a boat and are unlikely to be bluffing

You can probably go bigger than that on the flop if you want to. I'd rather keep betting the turn. The river raise seems too big to me, and the river clickback is really weird. I guess call, because 1/2 pot river with a better FH doesn't make a lot of sense. I would expect a FH to jam as well.

Snap Jam.

The river sizing tell of B50 makes it very unlikely you are beat.

And Fish don't understand relative value, just absolute value.

Fish can easily have all T9o/KTo preflop and the really bad ones will overvalue AK (if they decide to flat preflop) and think you have a worse Ax.

You also beat 88. A8o will raise flop at some frequency and we heavily block AQ. He can have AJ but it's just a combo decision now.

Definitely interested in results.

Very bad advice. No fish would ever check back turn with T9/KT.

The natural feeling for poker is simply missing here. Memorizing mass data is simply not enough.

The people have spoken:

so you still think a player would check back T9 or KT ? lol

What evidence do we have he's a fish? B50 is an acceptable size and the more often used size OTR between B50 and B150.

It's likely they 3bet AK pre so I think it really comes down to if they call flop with JJ. If they do then we can jam since we have 40% equity when called by JJ,88,AQs-AJs,A8s,AQo-AJo

I'm going off the assumption that his preflop play makes it more likely he is a fish, also his goofy min3bet OTR (all things being equal if someone cold calls your raise IP they are more likely to be a fish than not).

If he is a regular then I'd X flop 3 ways.

If I didn't know if he was a fish/regular and I got to the river this way then I would still jam. This is a good hand to illustrate the concept that you laid out, the one where you don't need >50% equity to profitably jam.

Preflop data from regs: Reg CC probability by position.

Preflop data from fish: Fish CC probability by position.

We can use Bayes theorem to figure out the probability of this player being a fish.

Math here:

6%x80%+23%x20% = .094 = random player cold calling BTN.

P = 23%x20%/9.4% = ~49% chance he is a fish.

I didn't realize it was this low but given all the information I still shove.

Yeah that's a good point, although those equities you laid out are reg equities. And we still don't know if he is a fish or reg and it's about 50/50 so we need to weight combos equally (that means adding some T9s/T9o/KTs/KTo in there at a non zero frequency).

Either way, very nice hand if you shoved and a great illustration of the non-intuitive concept of jamming when we have 40% equity vs a range.

Anticipating the results!

Not my intent, and please anyone chime in if I'm misapplying the concept. Although it seems straightforward.

Results soon, but you were definitely right about one thing.

I do have to side with Kendoo a bit in thinking majority of players will be betting their straights OTT.

If we were to include those in the ranges for the equities than there'd be no point in doing any calcs because shoving would definitely outperform.

After thinking about it some more I think that concept only applies OTF/OTT since OTR it doesn't make sense. Mainly when you can't play turns/rivers as well as your opponent based on board texture.

Most regulars will bet but fish will slowplay more than they should. If there is a 49% chance this player is a fish as per the data show's then you have to shove river based on the fact that they will not understand the relative strength of Ax/straights.

Yeah that makes sense, relative to call shove is probably a lot more +EV vs fish than it is -EV vs regs and villain is pretty fishy once you add up the small things.

BTN having 282bb is an interesting data point, I would think that weighs them towards being a high variance fish or maniac

I think we can all agree after the minclick on the river that it's some kind of fish, but there's probably no one who can realistically recognize that and act accordingly within the 10 second or whatever timer for their stack.

Yeah but your analysis is based on what you would do after thinking about the hand not what you would do in game.

Everyone should post better than they play.

Can we get results on this hand I'm curious as to what he had.

Got em.

And Kendoo where you at? Come back in the thread so I can give you a whooping little boy.