5/10/25 - 3! Meta Top Pair
5/10 with a 25 straddle local game. V in this hand is unknown PLO player waiting to play 25/25 PLO game.
Been playing with V for about 90 minutes. V sometimes limps and calls raises, seems passive and isnt 4! pre or fighting for pots. He's already told the table he hasn't played NL in years and is very talkative and nice. Compared to his usual game, this might be small potatoes.
Both of us around 5-6k effective. Otth:
V in Straddle+2 opens to 75. Folds to HERO on the button who 3! to 250 with JQcc. Folds back to V who before making the call, says he partially saw the cards folded by the straddle. Dealer asks what he saw, and V says he thinks it was a red queen and not sure about the other card. Dealer peeks at folded cards and discovers Qd and then flips it over along with the other hole card, 8c. V then proceeds to call and HERO says, "Thank you for being honest"
Pot: 540
Flop: Q84r
V ch. HERO pounders on what to do. Should we be betting more or using this opportunity to solidify a strong checking range? HERO decides to range 175 and V quickly calls.
Pot: 890
Turn 4c (brings in bdfd)
Villian leads for 600. HERO takes a few beats before calling.
Pot: 2090
River: 5x
Villian quickly checks. HERO now has decision to continue for value or check and get to showdown. Action?
10 Replies
I'd just go ahead and bet 1500 vs a passive fish
Edit: 2nd card exposed was not 8c, it was 9c.
If V is usually passive and not fighting for pots, then his lead ott for 2/3 pot is quite worrying.
You can't do anything but call turn, anyway.
OTR, it seems close. I'd lean towards a small bet, like ~500, assuming he will never bluff-raise.
However, if you have not seen him calling light, a check back cannot be terrible, imo.
I’m checking back, we probably value own ourselves a lot and if he check raise bluffs it’s a huge disaster.
Those voicing for a big bet, why? Is it only because we know it's less likely V has top pair? What in V's range is going to call that we beat? Currently think big bet is absolutely awful.
The turn donk bet is very strong, likely indicating hands with at least a queen. You can consider folding QJ without a flush draw.
On the river, it's a value bet with KQ+. You're targeting hands like Q9s or better.
QJ isn't strong enough for a value bet here, so we check. Against hands like Q9o, QT, QJ, KQ, AQ, we're roughly 50/50. However, we should give some credit to our opponent. It's unlikely he calls preflop with Q9o. If we add some possible slow-played hands like A4, 88, AA, KK, and put him on stronger queens like QT or better, we're in trouble.
How could that possibly be a value bet?
I’m checking back here because I think this guy is super polarized on the turn. This guy isn’t just a NL novice, he’s a PLO player. He’s not check/calling flop and then leading turn with a worse Q. He either has us crushed and is checking to induce a bet, or he has absolutely nothing and will just fold if we bet.
I don't think you guys understand that Villain is probably sigh-folding KQ offsuit at some frequency preflop because "one of his outs is gone." Same for pocket 88 being folded at some frequency.
When the board pairs the 4, we can't put Villain on flopped sets (remember pocket 88 might be folded pre). There are not that many combos of Qx that beat us.
We can definitely bet river for value against pocket pairs.
Sorry I misread the part about the 9c being the actual card being exposed. That was bad reading comprehension on my part.
I would adjust my answer somewhat towards a smaller river value bet.
