NL10 Flush from the flop
I am not sure if he could do it with just a single A♣ as a bluff? What would you do in my shoes here? Does Flop, Turn and River bets makes sense here?
$0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
MP: 118.7 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 16.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 5.13, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 40)
Hero (BTN): 104 BB
SB: 150.7 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
BB: 115 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 19.44, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 36)
UTG: 121.1 BB (VPIP: 14.89, PFR: 11.83, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 265)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♣ Q♣
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, SB calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB
Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) 5♣ 7♣ 6♣
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 4.7 BB, fold, BB calls 4.7 BB
Turn: (16.9 BB, 2 players) 2♦
BB checks, Hero bets 10.7 BB, BB calls 10.7 BB
River: (38.3 BB, 2 players) Q♦
BB checks, Hero bets 18.2 BB, BB raises to 97.1 BB and is all-in, Hero - ?
14 Replies
It's probably too nutted. I don't know where the cutoff is. I would size up the river a bit but still mainly bet/fold
snapcall, you need to be good only 32% of all times - they have all the worse flushes too
Folding, villain is never jamming worse flushes and river x/r is a nutted line.
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Stop playing poker if you fold this - ridiculous…
Call, I think he'll do that with worse flushes (yes you're blocking but you're also blocking better flushes so I don't think it's a valid point).
Furthermore he should 3B pre with some suited A so he doesn't even have all the Ah flush in his range.
Every better flush is out there, and your bet sizes end up isolating against too strong of a range by the river. Can't imagine there are many offsuit Ax with a club either.
It looks like a call. I could be wrong at these stakes, but this is another one of those opponent highest EV line questions.
Does it make sense for a nut/K high flopped flush to x every street, hoping his opponent will bet, so he can XRAI on the river? It's a risky line for a lot of reasons. You really need your opponent to bet every street so you can build value. You have to hope a 4th straight OR flush doesn't hit at any point, and destroy the value in your hand. If your opponent has another big hand that would stack off, it would happen regardless on the flop or turn. The only thing you're inducing is getting value from bluffs.
I *think* enough regs (and he looks like a likely reg) at 10nl understand they can bluff pretty successfully w/ AcXx in this spot. I could be wrong though.
When you size down river like this I think there's some chance regs will XR a J/T high flush and especially Q high flushes
It looks like a call. I could be wrong at these stakes, but this is another one of those opponent highest EV line questions.
Does it make sense for a nut/K high flopped flush to x every street, hoping his opponent will bet, so he can XRAI on the river? It's a risky line for a lot of reasons. You really need your opponent to bet every street so you can build value. You have to hope a 4th straight OR flush doesn't hit at any point, and destroy the value in your hand. If your opponent has another bi
well said
Call. No one is trapping 3 streets----->getting a perfect runout------>then XRing river to get value.
These guys don't have the discipline to do that. You can just count combos, there's a ton of Ac in his range, even 8c could do this sometimes.
SB is a fish right? So BB is incentivized to be wider preflop than he would normally be. Also we are in one of the widest preflop formations. Both data points for calling.
Interested in results.
Hero folded the river there thinking about higher flush, but then started to think how often there might be a bluff and ended up here with this hand.
Well played on the river. I imagine you can range check flop.
Ok I know I fold river here unless he's a maniac. I get it in though if it was raised on earlier streets. I hope that is consistent. I don't agree a fold here on the river means you have to quit poker, just consider how often low flushes and sets raise on earlier streets to prevent getting outdrawn on and that kind of narrows is river range to strong flushes.
