Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Venice's Introduction to the Thread.
I make a rule to not change someone's post unless it violates a rule. However this is the exception. Not because APD's post is bad (it is good), but because there's lots of discussion back and forth on winrates, and some people are just looking for a simple answer to winrates and bankrolls.
The simple answer is that winning is good. The majority of people playing poker lose money. Poker is a worse than zero sum game because of rake. Therefore if you are winning, you're doing well.
Harrington wrote that if you are beating a live game for 10BB/hr, you're crushing it. That's $20/hr at 1/2 and $50/hr at 2/5. That doesn't mean that you can't beat it for more, it just means that over time winning that much means you're vastly superior than your opponents. Most people don't sustain that over a long period of time because they move up to win more money.
The second simple answer is to stop worrying about what your sustainable winrate is. In order to get a big enough sample to statistically generate an accurate winrate, you and your opponents have play thousands of hands exactly the same way. Poker doesn't work that way. If you aren't improving your play over that amount of hands, you're falling behind your opponents. Therefore, the results are meaningless.
Finally, Kurt put it best that you need 20 buyins to play a level.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78/mic...
On to the rest of the thread.
So here it is... The Win Rate thread (and other finances)!
This thread will basically be a containment thread and will stock pile all of the questions and answers about winrates. I would also like to include bankroll management and other finances into this thread. Bottom line is this, if you are worried about a win rate you should probably be worried about bankroll management also.
Instead of starting this thread like all other winrate threads by asking the question, "What is a good hourly/winrate at live 1/2?" I would rather take the time to explain a few tools live players have to help us with it and to also help us become disciplined. The "whats a good rate" questions I am sure will be asked time and time again.
Online players have some superb tools that they get to use. HUD's, databases, OPR, PTR, Shark Scope, and the list goes on. Live players have one thing, our memory. As we all know the human mind is prone to what is called human error, or in a lot of "winning" poker players cases exaggeration and forgetfullness. I think its important to discuss how we go about keeping track of all this information that will be important to and for our games. So get your pens and pads ready, or phones, and get ready to start logging!
What goes into a winrate? A lot of people simply log the hours played, the amount they bought in for, and the amount they cashed out. At the end they calculate it all together and wala a winrate or, like most live players use, an hourly rate. This is probably the easiest way to do it. When I first started logging my play I would bring a binder with me that kept all my poker "stuff" in it and I would log it into the book at the end of the session. If I had forgotten the binder I would make a quick note in my phone and write it later. I always made it a point to do it right then and there though. Never ever wait! Human error will kick in.
Times have gotten much more advanced though. Live players now have some pretty useful tools that we can use. First one I will talk about is Poker Journal for the Apple fanboys.
Poker Journal by Michael Golden is a program that will track both your live and tournament play (and any game you would like to add to your database) and calculate everything for you. It will give you your hourly rate, time played, average won, average lost, sessions won and lost, and much much more. It will also graph your sessions and run reports for you. You want to know what day or time has been the best to play or what location is the most profitable? Simply filter your stats and its all there. It will also run live cash games. You hit start and the clock goes a ticking. Unfortunately it runs only on the iPhone and iPod at the time and is $12.99.
Next is www.checkyourbets.com. I personally have not used this, but going to the website and looking at some of the screen shots and reading the FAQ it looks pretty solid and its FREE! 😃 Others on here use this site and I will let them add what they feel is appropriate.
Last is cardplayer.com. Their format is very simple yet boring. If you want something quick and easy with not too much detail then its for you. It definately beats a pen, paper and calculator, but I would go with one of the other ones personally.
There are others, but I think those are some pretty good examples. So why go through all this trouble to tell you about these tools? Simple, you want to know what kind of winrate is to be expected then start logging. What I do is not going to be the same as what you do or anybody else does. Not only will you start to learn about winrates at the different levels but you will be able to disect your game and learn many things. It will teach you discipline. When you are making it a point to log each session you will start to treat your poker more like a business and become more serious about it. Also important is to log your expenses. You need to know if you are spending too much and if it is affecting your roll.
Bankroll is another important thing. I think we all can agree that 20 BI's at 1/2is a good starting point, but if you dont want to wait to save up $2k just to play some poker there is nothing wrong with taking shots. In our world (casinos) this is the smallest game offered and we really have no choice. I will leave the bankroll information out for now as there are many different opinions on it.
Last thing I want to add is that this needs to be a place where people compare rates and notes with little to no brags. If you are going to come on here and brag you better have some proof (I gave you some great material above) and many hours to back your claims up. For those that have been wanting to log their sessions now is the time to start. I can see many good self challenges coming out of this and more disciplined players.
Thats it for now. Let the questions begin (and reappear many times).
Should I take a shot at 2/5?
I've determined that, when stacks go below 200, I cannot beat the 1/2 game in my cardroom because the rake is 6-3-1 to 60. The game is still beatable, but it allows for no margin of error, and I still make enough mistakes. I was up twelve 350 buy-ins over 200 hours, mostly earned over three months when the cardroom ran unsustainable promotions, and people bought deep to match the stakes of the many 500 promos. Since then, average stacks sizes have shrunk to about 200. Some nights, only me and another player have more than 200.
The rake is the same at 2/5. My pro friend says the level of play is the same as 1/2, people just lose more money because they buy in for 500-1,000.
Should I take a 1500 gamble? How much would you buy in for? 500 and try to build a stack for set mining? Just blow the two 750 buy ins. If I lose it, I'm relegated to re-building my bankroll home games. One promises to be profitable. I do not intend to earn much in the 10/25 cent home game with dads earning +200,000 but leave the game when they lose 30.
What would you do?
Should I take a shot at 2/5?
I've determined that, when stacks go below 200, I cannot beat the 1/2 game in my cardroom because the rake is 6-3-1 to 60. The game is still beatable, but it allows for no margin of error, and I still make enough mistakes. I was up twelve 350 buy-ins over 200 hours, mostly earned over three months when the cardroom ran unsustainable promotions, and people bought deep to match the stakes of the many 500 promos. Since then, average stacks sizes have shrunk to about 200
My opinion is that i would want to have a little bit more if i am gonna shottake, or pretty easily can rebuild at lets say 1/3 or replenish the bankroll in other ways.
If you only have lets say two buyins of 750 available to you its gonna be quite hard to play optimal good poker and not become scared money in the game.
If you are the more gambling type of guy that really doesent mind busting the 1500, sure go ahead and shottake then take it from there.
But i would personally build up so i can take for example 3K,then split that up into 6 buyins of 500 each to try my luck at 2/5. Then you now you have some reloads available,and dont have to call it quits if you run into a couple of coolers quickly or run into some coolers or whatever.
What's your roll? If it is $10K+, I'd probably do more than just take a 3BI shot.
For simplicity's sake I wouldn't buy-in for 150BBs while getting my feet wet.
I like that advice.
I have a big life roll but taking out even 0.1 percent for a poker bankroll requires negotiating with my wife. She supports 10/20 cent dad home games. The "higher stakes" 1/2 game in the casino--she supports it so long as it's self-sustaining .
My question is more about risk. Over many trials, there is no luck in the poker. Over two buyins, it's mostly luck. But when the 1/2 game with the higher rake means dribbling away your bankroll, why not take a chance at 2/5 unrolled with just three buyins? I am not excited to pay GG's 1/2 I-limp-AKo-here-but-that's-just-me game with 2K. I hate gambling, I never bet on sports, blackjack, slots, even lotteries. But I'm seriously considering gambling at 2/5. Would people on 2+2 wish me luck?
I think I can stay cool. The whole time, I'll definitely be paying attention. I almost always have the highest executive function at any table, even though when I play poker I have moments when I get distracted by bullies, pretty women and nineteenth-century German labor law .
If you are the more gambling type of guy that really doesent mind busting the 1500, sure go ahead and shottake then take it from there..
My point is that I hate gambling. But it's also a gamble when you earn $50/hr and spend twenty hours applying for $5,000 grant for which you have a 20 percent chance of getting. You cannot reapply. The one out of five times you get the grant, it opens more doors. Same with taking a shot at 2/5.
I like that advice.
I have a big life roll but taking out even 0.1 percent for a poker bankroll requires negotiating with my wife. She supports 10/20 cent dad home games. The "higher stakes" 1/2 game in the casino--she supports it so long as it's self-sustaining .
My question is more about risk. Over many trials, there is no luck in the poker. Over two buyins, it's mostly luck. But when the 1/2 game with the higher rake means dribbling away your bankroll, why not take a chance at 2/5 unrolled with
How much do you have total in your poker bankroll? I 100% would aggressively shot take 2/5. I started at 1/2 and am now playing 2/3/10 the largest game my room currently offers. I moved up immediately at soon as i had 2 buyins because of the rake situation and the players at 1/2 are a lot of passive nits. The higher game draws more of the gamblers and people with high disposable incomes that want to have fun, the kind of people you really want to be playing with.
You definitely need to get in that 2/5 game. If I was you i would buy in for 500 rather than 750 and just feel the waters. You will see what its like and get a feel for the players. And just tell yourself youre a 2/5 player now. I would continue to play that game unless you get to where you're down to your last 500, then go back to 1/2. But most likely you will get in this game and win some real money.
How much do you have total in your poker bankroll? I 100% would aggressively shot take 2/5. I started at 1/2 and am now playing 2/3/10 the largest game my room currently offers. I moved up immediately at soon as i had 2 buyins because of the rake situation and the players at 1/2 are a lot of passive nits. The higher game draws more of the gamblers and people with high disposable incomes that want to have fun, the kind of people you really want to be playing with.
You definitely need to get in th
I don't think the most likely outcome of playing 2/5 on an extremely short roll with limited experience is winning real money. That doesn't mean it's not worth trying though.
I'm in similar situation to adonson where I am shot-taking 2/5 off a short bankroll. I am buying in for 100bb and initially gave myself two buy-ins ($1k total) before I would stop playing 2/5 and re-build at 1/2. Since then, I've played 45 hours at 2/5 and am up $500. It's not a particularly comfortable spot for me but it's been a good experience and I'm happy to be winning. I also still play more hours at 1/2 than 2/5 because I only play 2/5 when the game looks good and I feel like I am playing well.
My stats for 2024 so far… its been rough to say the least
That is pretty rough. Have you been running bad or do you think you're playing bad? Maybe a combination?
Maybe a combination, i feel like im playing well overall.
End of feb i was up 18k for the year
This month i lost 17k and 16k of that in the last 4 sessions by far my worst losing month lifetime.
Wow thats nasty. Are you playing 2/5? Sounds like you are putting in a lot of volume.
I have a job but i still try to pull 75-100 hrs/month
Some 2-5 but mostly 5-10 which is basically 5-10-20
Funny thing is that the last 4 sessions have been some of the best 5-10-20 games ive played in this year with maybe 5-6 recs and only 2-3 pros in each game.
I have a job but i still try to pull 75-100 hrs/month
Some 2-5 but mostly 5-10 which is basically 5-10-20
Funny thing is that the last 4 sessions have been some of the best 5-10-20 games ive played in this year with maybe 5-6 recs and only 2-3 pros in each game.
Id love to have that much volume. I work too much so i only get maybe 20hr a month.
Just ended my longest consecutive winning session streak in current recording app database. Got me curious to look at my entire sample to see how big an outlier this streak was and compare win streaks to loss streaks.
For context this is a 1,328 live session sample size approaching 10K hours.
Longest winning streak - 17 sessions
Second longest winning streak - 13 sessions
Longest losing streak = 5 sessions
Times I've won 5 or more consecutive sessions - 54
Times I've won 10 or more consecutive sessions - 5
Times I've lost 5 consecutive sessions - 3
Times I've lost 4 consecutive sessions - 6
For those with similar live sample sizes, how do your winning\losing session streaks compare?
For those with similar live sample sizes, how do your winning\losing session streaks compare?
I try to only look at $/hr over a month or more ... anything else feels like it'd make me play worse.
Way too many times I see people want to leave because they are up a bit, or not want to leave because they are down a bit (which might be fine if there are a bunch of reasons and those are the ones you can articulate easily ... but mostly that's not the case IMO).
Also a bunch of times recently I've played when I knew I was playing for 2 hours or something.
Leaving when I'm playing bad or tilted is def. a significant skill, and staying when there's a big spot at the table is something I think most of us try to do.
I try to only look at $/hr over a month or more ... anything else feels like it'd make me play worse.
Way too many times I see people want to leave because they are up a bit, or not want to leave because they are down a bit (which might be fine if there are a bunch of reasons and those are the ones you can articulate easily ... but mostly that's not the case IMO).
Also a bunch of times recently I've played when I knew I was playing for 2 hours or something.
Leaving when I'm playing bad or tilted is
I'm not sure what your point is or how your response relates to my post.
I do not leave early to lock up wins or play longer chasing losses. My average session length is just over 7 hours across this 9.7k hour sample.
My hourly and bb/hr are not something I'm sharing in an open forum.
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I try to only look at $/hr over a month or more ... anything else feels like it'd make me play worse.
Way too many times I see people want to leave because they are up a bit, or not want to leave because they are down a bit (which might be fine if there are a bunch of reasons and those are the ones you can articulate easily ... but mostly that's not the case IMO).
Also a bunch of times recently I've played when I knew I was playing for 2 hours or something.
Leaving when I'm playing bad or tilted is
PS. Hourly over a month is meaningless.
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Just ended my longest consecutive winning session streak in current recording app database. Got me curious to look at my entire sample to see how big an outlier this streak was and compare win streaks to loss streaks.
For context this is a 1,328 live session sample size approaching 10K hours.
Longest winning streak - 17 sessions
Second longest winning streak - 13 sessions
Longest losing streak = 5 sessions
Times I've won 5 or more consecutive sessions - 54
Times I've won 10 or more consecutive sessi
A quick look shows I have similar numbers over 6005 hours / 796 sessions in my 1/3 NL game.
Longest winning streaks: 15, 12 (once each)
Longest losing streak: 5 (once, with one of those being -$2 in a 12.5 hour session, lol)
5+ wins in a row: 35
4 losses in a row: 6
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How did you get your bankroll? Did you earn it only on poker? Did you invest in yourself? How much did you lose before you had 30 buyins?
Hello everyone, sorry if I did this wrong I’m new to 2 + 2. I was trying to get some tips on what a correct bankroll would be for a 1/2 or 1/3 NLH cash game at my local casino. I’ve played there only once before and the table is extremely soft. I only plan on playing one time per week so definitely not full time or even part time playing. 8 hrs a week I’d say. I do have a job as well. The game does play more like a 2-5 game but still a lot of short stacks, most people just raise to 15 pre, is why I say it plays more like a 2/5 game, is that a normal raise sizing most people use in 1/2 or 1/3 live? I don’t really have very many living expenses, I have a 2k bankroll as of right now.
To add a little more onto this, I’m not inexperienced. I have played for about 3 years now online, and am a winning player online. Just never really played much live since I just turned 21 a year ago.
If you have a job and thus no major concerns about risk-of-ruin, you should be fine to play with your $2k. These games are high variance, so there's a chance you bust it, but that's not a big deal if it happens, and the opportunity cost from saving up more to play is probably not worth it.
And yes, that sizing is pretty normal for a lot of 1/3 games, and even some 1/2 games. This makes effective stacks relatively short, thus making speculative hands less valuable and premiums even more valuable.
My Memorial Day session saw me reach the 600 hour milestone at $1-$2 (at $2-$100 spread-limit). My stats:
