Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Should I take a shot at 2/5?

I've determined that, when stacks go below 200, I cannot beat the 1/2 game in my cardroom because the rake is 6-3-1 to 60. The game is still beatable, but it allows for no margin of error, and I still make enough mistakes. I was up twelve 350 buy-ins over 200 hours, mostly earned over three months when the cardroom ran unsustainable promotions, and people bought deep to match the stakes of the many 500 promos. Since then, average stacks sizes have shrunk to about 200. Some nights, only me and another player have more than 200.

The rake is the same at 2/5. My pro friend says the level of play is the same as 1/2, people just lose more money because they buy in for 500-1,000.

Should I take a 1500 gamble? How much would you buy in for? 500 and try to build a stack for set mining? Just blow the two 750 buy ins. If I lose it, I'm relegated to re-building my bankroll home games. One promises to be profitable. I do not intend to earn much in the 10/25 cent home game with dads earning +200,000 but leave the game when they lose 30.

What would you do?

My opinion is that i would want to have a little bit more if i am gonna shottake, or pretty easily can rebuild at lets say 1/3 or replenish the bankroll in other ways.

If you only have lets say two buyins of 750 available to you its gonna be quite hard to play optimal good poker and not become scared money in the game.

If you are the more gambling type of guy that really doesent mind busting the 1500, sure go ahead and shottake then take it from there.

But i would personally build up so i can take for example 3K,then split that up into 6 buyins of 500 each to try my luck at 2/5. Then you now you have some reloads available,and dont have to call it quits if you run into a couple of coolers quickly or run into some coolers or whatever.

I like that advice.

I have a big life roll but taking out even 0.1 percent for a poker bankroll requires negotiating with my wife. She supports 10/20 cent dad home games. The "higher stakes" 1/2 game in the casino--she supports it so long as it's self-sustaining .

My question is more about risk. Over many trials, there is no luck in the poker. Over two buyins, it's mostly luck. But when the 1/2 game with the higher rake means dribbling away your bankroll, why not take a chance at 2/5 unrolled with just three buyins? I am not excited to pay GG's 1/2 I-limp-AKo-here-but-that's-just-me game with 2K. I hate gambling, I never bet on sports, blackjack, slots, even lotteries. But I'm seriously considering gambling at 2/5. Would people on 2+2 wish me luck?

I think I can stay cool. The whole time, I'll definitely be paying attention. I almost always have the highest executive function at any table, even though when I play poker I have moments when I get distracted by bullies, pretty women and nineteenth-century German labor law .

My point is that I hate gambling. But it's also a gamble when you earn $50/hr and spend twenty hours applying for $5,000 grant for which you have a 20 percent chance of getting. You cannot reapply. The one out of five times you get the grant, it opens more doors. Same with taking a shot at 2/5.

How much do you have total in your poker bankroll? I 100% would aggressively shot take 2/5. I started at 1/2 and am now playing 2/3/10 the largest game my room currently offers. I moved up immediately at soon as i had 2 buyins because of the rake situation and the players at 1/2 are a lot of passive nits. The higher game draws more of the gamblers and people with high disposable incomes that want to have fun, the kind of people you really want to be playing with.

You definitely need to get in that 2/5 game. If I was you i would buy in for 500 rather than 750 and just feel the waters. You will see what its like and get a feel for the players. And just tell yourself youre a 2/5 player now. I would continue to play that game unless you get to where you're down to your last 500, then go back to 1/2. But most likely you will get in this game and win some real money.

I don't think the most likely outcome of playing 2/5 on an extremely short roll with limited experience is winning real money. That doesn't mean it's not worth trying though.

I'm in similar situation to adonson where I am shot-taking 2/5 off a short bankroll. I am buying in for 100bb and initially gave myself two buy-ins ($1k total) before I would stop playing 2/5 and re-build at 1/2. Since then, I've played 45 hours at 2/5 and am up $500. It's not a particularly comfortable spot for me but it's been a good experience and I'm happy to be winning. I also still play more hours at 1/2 than 2/5 because I only play 2/5 when the game looks good and I feel like I am playing well.

I’m so happy for the positive response. I will promptly show my wife.

My stats for 2024 so far… its been rough to say the least

That is pretty rough. Have you been running bad or do you think you're playing bad? Maybe a combination?

Maybe a combination, i feel like im playing well overall.

End of feb i was up 18k for the year
This month i lost 17k and 16k of that in the last 4 sessions by far my worst losing month lifetime.

Wow thats nasty. Are you playing 2/5? Sounds like you are putting in a lot of volume.

I have a job but i still try to pull 75-100 hrs/month

Some 2-5 but mostly 5-10 which is basically 5-10-20

Funny thing is that the last 4 sessions have been some of the best 5-10-20 games ive played in this year with maybe 5-6 recs and only 2-3 pros in each game.

Id love to have that much volume. I work too much so i only get maybe 20hr a month.

Right there with you. I ran terrible Jan and Feb. March has been good though. My total for the year is 181 hrs. Profit per hour 0.00. Total profit -46.00

Just ended my longest consecutive winning session streak in current recording app database. Got me curious to look at my entire sample to see how big an outlier this streak was and compare win streaks to loss streaks.

For context this is a 1,328 live session sample size approaching 10K hours.

Longest winning streak - 17 sessions
Second longest winning streak - 13 sessions

Longest losing streak = 5 sessions

Times I've won 5 or more consecutive sessions - 54
Times I've won 10 or more consecutive sessions - 5

Times I've lost 5 consecutive sessions - 3
Times I've lost 4 consecutive sessions - 6

For those with similar live sample sizes, how do your winning\losing session streaks compare?

I try to only look at $/hr over a month or more ... anything else feels like it'd make me play worse.
Way too many times I see people want to leave because they are up a bit, or not want to leave because they are down a bit (which might be fine if there are a bunch of reasons and those are the ones you can articulate easily ... but mostly that's not the case IMO).
Also a bunch of times recently I've played when I knew I was playing for 2 hours or something.

Leaving when I'm playing bad or tilted is def. a significant skill, and staying when there's a big spot at the table is something I think most of us try to do.

I'm not sure what your point is or how your response relates to my post.

I do not leave early to lock up wins or play longer chasing losses. My average session length is just over 7 hours across this 9.7k hour sample.

My hourly and bb/hr are not something I'm sharing in an open forum.

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PS. Hourly over a month is meaningless.

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A quick look shows I have similar numbers over 6005 hours / 796 sessions in my 1/3 NL game.

Longest winning streaks: 15, 12 (once each)

Longest losing streak: 5 (once, with one of those being -$2 in a 12.5 hour session, lol)

5+ wins in a row: 35

4 losses in a row: 6

GcluelessuselessmetricsnoobG

How did you get your bankroll? Did you earn it only on poker? Did you invest in yourself? How much did you lose before you had 30 buyins?

Hello everyone, sorry if I did this wrong I’m new to 2 + 2. I was trying to get some tips on what a correct bankroll would be for a 1/2 or 1/3 NLH cash game at my local casino. I’ve played there only once before and the table is extremely soft. I only plan on playing one time per week so definitely not full time or even part time playing. 8 hrs a week I’d say. I do have a job as well. The game does play more like a 2-5 game but still a lot of short stacks, most people just raise to 15 pre, is why I say it plays more like a 2/5 game, is that a normal raise sizing most people use in 1/2 or 1/3 live? I don’t really have very many living expenses, I have a 2k bankroll as of right now.

To add a little more onto this, I’m not inexperienced. I have played for about 3 years now online, and am a winning player online. Just never really played much live since I just turned 21 a year ago.

If you have a job and thus no major concerns about risk-of-ruin, you should be fine to play with your $2k. These games are high variance, so there's a chance you bust it, but that's not a big deal if it happens, and the opportunity cost from saving up more to play is probably not worth it.

And yes, that sizing is pretty normal for a lot of 1/3 games, and even some 1/2 games. This makes effective stacks relatively short, thus making speculative hands less valuable and premiums even more valuable.

My Memorial Day session saw me reach the 600 hour milestone at $1-$2 (at $2-$100 spread-limit). My stats:

https://imgur.com/a/b28NrGW