NBA 2024-25 Season Thread

you're right, but i'll allow it if they're messing with draymond

Fine

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Community / Señor Chang

It's such a drop off between Lively and Gafford. Kebbler was doing pretty well today and I would play him more than Gafford in the next game if Lively is still out

Way I see it Dallas is winning three coin tosses to one, so wolves at about one in eight to win this thing.

Most of the time, the team with the 3-1 lead is obviously better than the team that is down 3-1. For example, if the Cavaliers somehow had pulled out game 4 against the Celtics, I'm guessing that they still would have been at least +2500 to win the series. The teams in this series are relatively even. That's why the odds on Minnesota are so low.

Not a fan of blocked shots and slam dunks, I see

0-3 comeback will happen sooner rather than later.

it might happen sooner than later, it might not

teams get up 3-0 only a few times a year

but just variance/how little it happens it could still take awhile

it definitely is more doable than before, teams are just a lot more likely to get up 3-0 these days without being the vastly superior team due to injuries/parity/3pt variance

They were probably saying that 10-15 years ago as well .

Find one source who said that 10-15 years ago and I’ll give you a get out of temp-ban card*.

* card actually doesn’t work.

:p
obv my point had as much validity as yours because its based on feeling right ?

As was said earlier, main reason teams down 3-0 have such a terrible record is that usually when you are down 3-0 the other team is way better than you. Mostly because it's a lot more likely the better team goes up 3-0 than the worse team, and also because the better team is more likely to have HCA and the team with HCA is more likely to go up 3-0. A team that's 7 points worse is about 1/200 to win 4 consecutive games (2 home 2 away).

There's not really anything magic about 3-0 beyond just multiplying the win probability of four consecutive games together.

In terms of whether more parity makes it more likely and what the first 3-0 comeback will look like, it cuts both ways - A favorite who is down 3-0 is much more likely to win than a dog who is down 3-0, but dogs will have way more opportunities to do it since they are way more likely to be down 3-0 in the first place, although without doing the math, I do suspect that an evenly matched series is the most likely to produce a 3-0 comeback (the fact that a given team is less likely to go up 3-0 if they're evenly matched is mitigated by the fact that you have TWO good chances for a team to go up 3-0).

When they were down 3-0 I projected the wolves win probabilities to be 49% 64% 45% 63%, which is about an 8.9% chance of winning. First game was in fact 49% and as of yesterday G5 was 64%. I actually grabbed a bunch of Minn to title at 40-1 because 8.9% beating Dallas then means they'd only have to beat Boston 27% of the time for that to break even, and the pre-series lines have them at 33%. I'm not really sure how to net the additional pro of "the only way they face boston is if they win 4 games in a row and are on fire" vs "if they face boston, they will have had zero rest while Boston has had like 9 days or something"

IAlso, I think a pretty good chance for 3-0 comeback is a superior team built around a superstar who is injured who then comes back. Like if Milwaukee had gone down 3-0 to Indiana, then Giannis came back for G4 and beyond

Most likely chance IMO is if 3-0 loses best player in game 3 or 4.

Can't be as bad as when shortly after David Ortiz got shot they did an on location pre/post game show from the outfield in Yankee Stadium and there was a "who shot Papi " chant.

tonights refs: scott foster, kevin garnett, jesse "the mind" ventura

Nope. I heard someone say exactly what I posted on ESPN a few days ago.

LUKA

jordan mclaughlin will get them back in it

Luka and Kyrie destroying.

Fatman and Flatman strike again!

The dynamic duo!

RIP TWolves

Cherokee Parks ain’t walking through that door