Journey to $10,000 playing 1 million hands of 10nl zoom

I've been playing 200NL. Looks like my redline is really high while my blue line suffers. I think I need to learn to check back more often. I feel as though I haven't been running the best, but I've come across some tough competition as well.

Here are 18 interesting hands that I've played for last 4 to 5 months:

Hand #1

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101 BB
SB: 136.73 BB
BB: 36.04 BB
UTG: 243.23 BB
MP: 107.85 BB
Hero (CO): 140.98 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♦ 6♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB raises to 11.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.5 BB

Flop: (24 BB, 2 players) 8♥ 8♣ 6♣
SB bets 11.4 BB, Hero calls 11.4 BB

Turn: (46.8 BB, 2 players) 5♦
SB checks, Hero bets 14.95 BB, SB calls 14.95 BB

River: (76.7 BB, 2 players) 8♠
SB bets 98.88 BB and is all-in, fold,

This fold was not fun and I ran into the only card on the river that I would have folded to. Not sure if it was correct since his c-bet in 3-bet pots had been 100% at that point so it is possible I folded to a bizarre float on the turn, but at the same time, 66 dropped way down in value for all the possible hands that I had in my range at that point. I was kind of on the fence, but I felt like I was beat a lot so I ended up folding.

Hand #2

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): 106.17 BB
BTN: 99.46 BB
SB: 108.23 BB
BB: 101.5 BB
UTG: 156.94 BB
MP: 364.76 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ A♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J♠ J♦ 5♣
Hero bets 2.35 BB, BTN calls 2.35 BB

Turn: (12.2 BB, 2 players) 6♣
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (12.2 BB, 2 players) 6♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.8 BB, Hero raises to 19 BB, fold,

This was an exciting opportunity to check/raise the river as a bluff to eliminate pocket pairs going for value. I felt like he was floating me a bit as well.

Hand #3

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 141.99 BB
UTG: 70.64 BB
MP: 236.85 BB
CO: 144.78 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 203.58 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♠ J♠

fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 4♦ 7♣ T♥
Hero checks, MP bets 3.9 BB, Hero raises to 10 BB, MP calls 6.1 BB

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) K♠
Hero bets 18.17 BB, MP calls 18.17 BB

River: (61.84 BB, 2 players) 6♦
Hero bets 111.32 BB and is all-in, fold,

This was an interesting spot to check/raise the flop and barrel 3 streets. Lots of my bluffs actually hit on that river which is nice.

Hand #4

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 118.52 BB
Hero (CO): 105.01 BB
BTN: 111.92 BB
SB: 109.8 BB
BB: 76.68 BB
UTG: 300.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♦ Q♦

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 6 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (12.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠ Q♣ J♦
BB bets 5 BB, Hero calls 5 BB

Turn: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 5♠
BB bets 21 BB, Hero calls 21 BB

River: (64.5 BB, 2 players) 8♣
BB checks, Hero bets 73.01 BB and is all-in, BB calls 44.68 BB and is all-in

Exploitatively going for thin value on this river versus this opponent that has a weaker river checking range.

Hand #5

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 109.4 BB
SB: 221.21 BB
Hero (BB): 318.22 BB
UTG: 100 BB
CO: 76.35 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ 8♦

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (7.5 BB, 3 players) 9♦ 6♥ 2♠
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets 2.35 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.35 BB

Turn: (12.2 BB, 2 players) 3♦
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (12.2 BB, 2 players) T♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 15.07 BB, Hero calls 15.07 BB

Flop and river calls are a bit loose, but my opponent was a bit aggressive.

Hand #6

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 56.75 BB
UTG: 113.72 BB
MP: 82.84 BB
CO: 126.63 BB
BTN: 102.7 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ Q♦

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A♠ 7♥ K♠
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 3♥
Hero checks, BB bets 2.85 BB, Hero calls 2.85 BB

River: (11.7 BB, 2 players) K♣
Hero bets 11.12 BB, BB calls 11.12 BB

I've been looking for spots to donk bet on rivers. I felt like river would be under bluffed so I decided to lead and capture value from an ace.

Hand #7

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 119.01 BB
BTN: 175.23 BB
Hero (SB): 174.05 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ 8♠

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) A♥ J♦ 2♠
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 8♦
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (6 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero bets 2.85 BB, BB raises to 19.95 BB, Hero raises to 171.05 BB and is all-in, fold,

I probably could have just called on the river since I underplayed my hand, but since I knew my opponent couldn't have the nuts I just jammed. Not sure why, but at the time, I thought my two pair was beat.

Hand #8

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 197.12 BB
UTG: 127.39 BB
Hero (CO): 104.74 BB
BTN: 90.05 BB
SB: 110.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♣ J♣

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 4 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ T♠ 4♣
Hero checks, BTN bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (27.5 BB, 2 players) J♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB

River: (47.5 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero bets 23 BB, BTN calls 23 BB

Another spot to donk lead on the river for value.

Hand #9

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 129.02 BB
Hero (BB): 332.47 BB
UTG: 190.94 BB
MP: 102 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 165.08 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♠ T♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (4.9 BB, 2 players) 8♦ 9♥ A♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.16 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, BTN calls 4.84 BB

Turn: (16.9 BB, 2 players) 9♦
Hero checks, BTN bets 8.03 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, fold,

I don't do a double check/raise bluff too often, but I it is very satisfying to pull off when I do.

Hand #10

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.5 BB
Hero (SB): 102.27 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 136.33 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 75.27 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♣ A♠

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) K♠ 8♠ 4♣
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) T♣
Hero bets 2.85 BB, BB calls 2.85 BB

River: (11.7 BB, 2 players) 4♠
Hero checks, BB bets 8.34 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold,

This hand was against a streamer who does very well at these stakes. I have access to pretty much every hand he plays since he streams them. I was able to get 4x to fold if I recall correctly. I think a lot of great players overfold to river check/raises as they probably should.

Hand #11

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 94.63 BB
CO: 296.79 BB
BTN: 164.21 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
Hero (BB): 152.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♠ Q♥

fold, CO raises to 2.3 BB, fold, SB calls 1.8 BB, Hero calls 1.3 BB

Flop: (6.9 BB, 3 players) 3♦ 9♦ J♦
SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (6.9 BB, 3 players) A♠
SB checks, Hero bets 3.28 BB, CO calls 3.28 BB, fold

River: (13.46 BB, 2 players) J♠
Hero bets 36 BB, fold,

This was also against the same streamer. He ended up folding 7♦ 6♦ which made me very happy. I vaguely remember him saying that he would call a river overbet on stream, but when he saw that it was 3x he reconsidered and threw it in the muck.

Hand #12

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 107.07 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 274.47 BB
MP: 217.28 BB
CO: 149.65 BB
BTN: 92.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ A♦

UTG raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, UTG calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (20.5 BB, 2 players) K♠ J♠ 2♦
Hero bets 6.43 BB, UTG calls 6.43 BB

Turn: (33.35 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (33.35 BB, 2 players) 8♠
Hero bets 10.51 BB, UTG raises to 258.05 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 73.07 BB and is all-in

Hero called on the river, I think this spot is usually a fold, but felt like my opponent would bluff a bit too much here. The fact that I didn't hold the A♠ was the final deciding factor leading me to call.

Hand #13

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 122.96 BB
BTN: 112.16 BB
SB: 109.88 BB
Hero (BB): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q♦ J♣

CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) K♦ 9♦ K♠
Hero checks, CO bets 1.57 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, CO calls 5.43 BB

Turn: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠
Hero checks, CO bets 6.56 BB, Hero raises to 25 BB, fold,

Turn might be too draw heavy for the double check/raise line, but I do block KQ, KJ, and I need some bluffs on the river for when the flush fills in so I chose this combo.

Hand #14

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 117.69 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 100 BB
Hero (SB): 122.37 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♦ 5♦

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 7♥ A♣ 8♦
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 8♥
Hero bets 2.85 BB, BB calls 2.85 BB

River: (11.7 BB, 2 players) 7♣
Hero bets 5.56 BB, BB raises to 17 BB, fold,

Disciplined fold against a nit.

Hand #15

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 141.21 BB
BB: 114.97 BB
UTG: 111.45 BB
MP: 182.72 BB
CO: 100 BB
Hero (BTN): 162.47 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♥ 8♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9 BB

Flop: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 4♣ A♣ 9♥
BB bets 7.68 BB, Hero calls 7.68 BB

Turn: (39.86 BB, 2 players) 2♥
BB bets 28.77 BB, Hero calls 28.77 BB

River: (97.4 BB, 2 players) 4♦
BB checks, Hero bets 114.02 BB and is all-in, fold,

Probably a bit loose on the flop, but I felt like I have a lot of opportunity for plays on various turn cards.

Hand #16

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB
BB: 118.04 BB
UTG: 104 BB
MP: 285.95 BB
CO: 100 BB
Hero (BTN): 114.09 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♥ A♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) T♥ T♦ 7♥
SB bets 11.88 BB, Hero calls 11.88 BB

Turn: (48.75 BB, 2 players) A♠
SB bets 23.63 BB, Hero calls 23.63 BB

River: (96 BB, 2 players) 9♠
SB bets 52.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 52.5 BB

This hand felt like it was on the cusp between folding and calling. Since I held and 8 I block the str8 and holding the hearts unblocks some bluffs, because flush draws in his spot usually want to go two streets instead of three leaning me more towards a call.

Hand #17

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 107.88 BB
MP: 109.21 BB
CO: 110.76 BB
Hero (BTN): 140.82 BB
SB: 3.47 BB
BB: 326.37 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4♠ 7♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 3.47 BB and is all-in, BB calls 2.47 BB, Hero calls 0.47 BB

Flop: (10.41 BB, 3 players) J♠ K♥ Q♠
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (10.41 BB, 3 players) A♠
BB bets 7.42 BB, Hero calls 7.42 BB

River: (25.25 BB, 3 players) Q♦
BB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

This hand might be better as a fold on the river, it felt pretty close, but due to the dynamic of the other player being all-in he could potentially bet with the str8 to bluff me, but extract value from the all-in player. I can't really see someone going for value with anything less than a flush with this sizing though, so it may be optimistic thinking someone would do this with a str8. I think I probably got lucky on this one.

Hand #18

PokerStars - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 101.73 BB
BTN: 128.15 BB
SB: 114.22 BB
BB: 206.37 BB
UTG: 200.15 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ 7♣

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 3♥ 7♥ 3♣
SB checks, Hero bets 3.33 BB, SB calls 3.33 BB

Turn: (13.65 BB, 2 players) 6♣
SB bets 6.49 BB, Hero calls 6.49 BB

River: (26.62 BB, 2 players) 2♣
SB bets 25.29 BB, Hero raises to 87.19 BB and is all-in, SB calls 61.9 BB

Value raise on the river is thin, but I don't think this opponent is folding weaker flushes or the straight so I went for it. It is a bit dangerous because he could have full houses and higher flushes, but he seemed like the right player type to just go for it.

So far I've been quite stagnate at 200NL, but I think my skills are improving. My next step is to stop continuation betting so much. It can be really hard not to sometimes. Also, I have to always remember to hand read, because it can get easy to fall in the trap of not thinking about hands hard enough.

Subbed gl at the tables

Thanks, I've made some changes to my game and it may have made me play worse, so I'm back to the drawing board. It's always a risk changing things to get better, but sometimes it ends up making you play worse.

After 100k hands at 100NL I've established a 95% confidence of being between 1.02BBs and 13.50BBs. This is very nice for me. My 200NL results are slightly negative at -0.49BBs/100 at 41k hands. For all data I use adjusted BB/100 because it is a better indicator of skill. My actual results are a bit worse. I'll be grinding a lot more 100NL now that I have established a healthy long term winrate. 200NL I'll still play, but not as much until I've established a better level of certainty in my results.

I'm going to quit my job and play poker full time now. Only up from here on out.

I've started to become somewhat obsessive about poker. I've been using GTO wizard and also watching YouTube videos. I also just think about a lot of general strategic concepts throughout the day.

I'm finding some exploits against specific players which are pretty cool. A lot of players don't check/raise enough and I can bet lots of streets with impunity. There are also players that check/raise too much and I start shifting my mediocre hands to flop checks and move some of my complete garbage to bets. I also find spots to probe bet and probe bet double barrel. There doesn't seem to be a lot of buzz around probe bets, but it is basically like barreling on runouts, but for the OOP player. Versus players that don't check/raise enough I can bet flop check back turn and bet river with a medium strength range and not get punished.

I've also learned to stop folding so many hands to 1/3 and 1/4 pot bets. I probably used to muck my pocket pairs in 3-bet pots too easily, but then I realized that my opponents have to place those missed suited Ax hands and suited broadway hands somewhere and they don't always double barrel. Same thing with calling cbets in the BB, even if I have to prepare for a turn overbet, because sometimes turn will go x/x and I'll be able to make a steal on the river.

I haven't used the overbet that much on the turn as much as other good regs, but I do find some great spots to attack ranges that are capped, especially if I have a player tagged as a tight passive or nit. There are some spots where I'm making a bet size where I only have bluffs and other sizes that only have value. I have to be careful with this of course, but it seems to be very effective when I do it right.

I just ran like a god tonight and up over $1000 in 4 hours at 100NL. Boosted the winrate up to 8.58 BB/100 +/- 5.46. I like to try to have a good mindset when I play so I do take breaks so that I can keep my mind fresh. I go for quality over quantity, although both are important.

If my stack starts to get super deep and another tough reg ends up with a deep stack I sometimes choose to go to another table. I also try and prioritize being to the left of tougher players rather than the age old advice of being to the left of the fishier players. I'm going to end up playing pots with them regardless. If I see a player with a fold to 3-bet percentage of over 85% that trumps everything and I will try my best to sit one seat over so that I'm in the BB when they are on the BU. That way I can 3-bet them mercilessly with all sorts of garbage hands and flat a majority of my premiums. In other positions I can't go as crazy because other players behind me mess it up for me.

Thanks for the words of encouragement. I do have some sort of paranoia that everyone else is playing better than me even though it isn't always happening. It is a bit weird, because at the same time I'm not afraid of going for thin value, hero calling, and doing wild bluffs. It seems the more I think I suck, the better I do and the more cocky I get, the worse I do. Weird how it works that way.

It's been awhile since I've posted in the thread. June was a bit of a rough month though it was still okay. Started off great in July so far so hopefully that continues. I've been playing a mixture of 200NL, 100NL, and 50NL based on who is at the table rather than making arbitrary rules about whether I'm profitable at a stake or not. My color coding system has evolved from purple meaning tight aggressive opponent to good player I would rather avoid. So when I open up the client and I see a table full of purple players I am less inclined to sit down. During happy hour (2x rake back) I noticed a lot of purple at 100NL so I just went down to 50NL where there was a lot of recs and made a killing.

I have now made use of the Cyan color in Poker Stars. This means to avoid a particular player because they are so good. There is a particular player that has gobbled up over $2k from me and I'd just rather not play him if I can help it so I colored him Cyan. He is the only player that has earned the badge of Cyan, but he just slaughters me at the tables. I've seen him play at $1knl as well so I'm like, yeah no thanks. Someday maybe, but not today.

I've grown the bankroll to over $20k including rake back so I've definitely got a healthy roll. Here is a cool hand. I'll only post one, because as a reader, 10 to 15ish hands might be a little bit much to digest at one time.

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 165.44 BB
MP: 142.91 BB
CO: 44.67 BB
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 190.79 BB
BB: 105.96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♥ 5♥

fold, MP raises to 2.1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, BB raises to 18.9 BB, fold, Hero calls 11.9 BB

Flop: (40.4 BB, 2 players) A♠ 5♠ 7♦
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (40.4 BB, 2 players) 8♠
BB bets 19.19 BB, Hero calls 19.19 BB

River: (78.78 BB, 2 players) 3♠
BB checks, Hero bets 61.91 BB and is all-in, fold

The cool thing about this hand is the range construction for my opponent. He had a very low 3-bet and 4-bet stat so I thought his range would be heavily weighted towards QQ+ and AK. I almost folded to the 4-bet, but if you have a suited connector hand to crack aces, 65s is the one to do it with and I thought I could at least see a flop for the price given. Pretty close to a fold.

When the flop came I was ready to call 1/4 pot, maybe 1/3, but even that is a bit dicey. Any higher I'd fold, fortunately he checked and I wasn't about to bluff a premium range here. When the turn came and he bet half pot I almost folded, but realized he pretty much never has a flush since his range is so tight so if I get a 9 or 4, those outs are clean and can play for stacks on the river. If I hit a 9 or 4 of spades or a 6 I can make a small river bet, but fold to a jam. If I hit a 5, I'm probably stacking off. If a spade comes, I believe he will telegraph is hand strength often by jamming the flush so I may be able to bluff the river if he checks on a spade unless it is the K of spades in which case I won't because his likely holding will be very pretty and my fold equity drops.

When the river came and he checked. I almost chickened out and gave up, but then decided I should follow through with the plan and jammed all-in expecting to get folds from KK and QQ without a spade and occasionally AK. To my surprise my opponent showed me A♥ A♣ after mucking his hand.

I think the AA fold is actually pretty good, because I probably don't have too many bluffs here, but I sure was happy to see that.

I have 300k hands played. Currently have been focusing on perfecting my BB defense versus various open sizes. 3x opens require a lot more folding than 2x opens and it isn't a trivial thing to pass up since it happens so often.

All stakes:

I have created what I call The Holy Grail of Flops. I wanted to pick 25 different flops that represent a wide variety of possible flops that come up. My goal is to learn these 25 flops well post flop. Then I tweak them a bit to see how different factors affect bet sizes, bet frequencies, what hands do what, and so forth. I picked each flop carefully representing the frequency that certain factors show up. Those factors being highness, pairedness, suitedness, and connectedness. Using GTO wizard I looked at the aggregated reports for flops and the frequencies of how often each of these show up. For example, 21.7% of flops are ace high flops so around 6 of my flops are going to be ace high flops. 55.10% of flops are two toned so I chose 14 of the 25 flops to be two toned. Obviously I took a few liberties, because the numbers don't fall exactly into place and I did add one tripled flop just because those flops are cool despite only showing up 0.20% of the time. Anyways here are the 25 flops that will propel me to massive success:

1) AA8r
2) AK6r
3) AJTtt
4) A94r
5) A22tt
6) A43tt
7) KKTtt
8) KQ3r
9) KJ7tt
10) K96r
11) K83tt
12) QJ6tt
13) Q76tt
14) Q72r
15) Q54tt
16) JT9tt
17) J85tt
18) J52tt
19) T97r
20) T74tt
21) 982r
22) 863m
23) 744r
24) 632tt
25) 555r

These flops were carefully crafted and I tried to also balance the frequency of the 13 card ranks amongst the flops. The list may not be perfect, but I feel it is sufficient and well thought out. I initially had a flop list of over 100 and it was just too much. I also searched online and found this article on 50 shades of flops:

https://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/50-shades-of-flop-texture/

Run It Once

50 shades of flop texture

Though it was interesting, the flops were vague and I wanted specific flops. 25 flops seemed like the perfect number to be detailed enough, but not to be overwhelmed with too much to work with. I did find other lists of 25 flops, but I just wasn't satisfied with the variety and those flops were mostly for solver computation and not so much for study so I designed my own. I was solving spots using GTO+ and it was taking forever on my laptop and at some point I decided it would be worth it to upgrade my GTO wizard membership to elite so that I could do these calculations much faster.

I've tried breaking up the game into categories based on position and a global frequency for that position. When I come across a flop that I don't know what to do with I can use that frequency and most common betsize by default. As my studies get more nuanced I can categorize further and further to get more detailed over time. For example, I know that according to the aggregated reports on GTO wizard in BU vs BB, BU checks about 58% of the time. The most common used bet size is 33% pot. So by default I can c bet unstudied flops 42% of the time against an opponent that is capable of check/raising at a decent frequency. Against everyone else I'm pretty much still cbetting close to 100%. When in doubt I pretty much default to c-bet. This frequency thing helps a bit more for OOP spots.

It is profitable to cbet 33% pot on pretty much every flop against your average opponent when OOP versus an IP caller. People are simply just going to fold too much. If you always do this, they are going to adjust though by calling and raising more. IP you don't bleed too much EV so it isn't that big of a deal, but OOP it can get quite costly. For awhile I decided to just bet half the time if my higher ranked card of my hole cards was on the left and check the other half if my higher ranked card was on the right. I know this strategy seems kind of brain dead, but it is actually quite effective. I can do even better though. I looked up some spots for SB v BB. I noticed with my Holy 25 flops, that a lot of the ace high flops I could c-bet 25% at 100% frequency without giving up too much EV except the A43tt flop. When the ace wheel is present it is good to check back sometimes. On 744r and 632tt range checking is a viable option! So the higher the cards the more you want to bet and the lower the cards the more you want to check. That isn't so surprising, but wait there's more!

On 982r, over betting is cool. I can bet a large size with my overpairs, top pair good kicker, and sometimes two pair. 99, 88, and 22 want to check though which is interesting. The overbet is targeting 9x and 8x that has to call down and deny equity to over cards. The opponent cant just overfold waiting for sets and two pair because they'll be folding too much. If you increase the stack sizes, the overbetting option becomes less attractive and some of the sets creep into the overbetting range, because now you can't stack off as easily with overpairs. I increased the stack sizes more and more and eventually overbetting became a weaker strategy and the solver preferred a smaller size. I played around with the solver tweaking little things about the flop and noticed that all 9 high flops and lower that are unpaired rainbow flops without a straight possibility can be overbet about a quarter of the time or checked without giving up much EV.

Even with that knowledge though, there are a lot of players that I will still use 1/3 against (and now 1/4, because **** it why not), because they love to fold so much. Versus more sticky/tricky opponents I can start using the overbet on some of these flops.

I have also revamped the HUD so that when I get HU at a table the whole layout changes to this:

It takes up so much space I couldn't even fit the whole HUD in the picture. I looked up HU huds on the internet and saw that there was this HUD you had to pay money for and I thought screw that, I'll just build my own. I did model mine after the picture on that website, but changed it a bit to my own liking.

I was on vacation at the end of the month so my volume isn't as much as the previous month. This month I plan on putting in more volume.

And here is a cool hand:

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 182.18 BB
BB: 111.51 BB
BTN: 79.1 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♦ 6♣

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB raises to 9 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 2 players) 9♦ A♥ A♦
Hero checks, BB bets 5.64 BB, Hero calls 5.64 BB

Turn: (29.28 BB, 2 players) 7♦
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (29.28 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero bets 9.18 BB, BB raises to 38 BB, Hero calls 28.82 BB

The flop call is nice and the fact I have a diamond makes it easier to call. Turn goes check/check reducing his number of flushes and other nutted hands. When the river came I usually pick a 1/2 pot sizing as a standard, but I decided to size down, because I really wanted to squeeze that thin value. My opponent made an intimidating raise and I'd probably normally fold this against the pool, but this opponent is willing to fight sometimes. I think his raise is mostly going to be full houses for value. Queen high flush is possible, but I do discount it quite a bit. I thought he might be ambitious enough to turn 3 of a kind into a bluff and he did exactly that with AJs.

Had a good month last month. Made a little over $3k, despite getting slaughtered at 200NL. I slacked a little bit towards the end. I have this goal of hitting 172 hours a month. I only got to 139.35, I'd rather play less hours than keep playing when I'm not feeling top notch though. I was able to get over 50k hands so that is good at least. I look at the worst case scenarios on prime dope and it is important to get some good volume in to make sure I don't go multiple months on a down swing. I really want to focus on improving too. I already have a very healthy bankroll, part of me wonders if I should just increase the study time in sacrifice of time spent playing.

I was playing around on GTO wizard and observing more spots with my holy flops. I try and find simplified strategies that are easy to implement that only give up 2% of EV from the optimal strategy on a specific street given that my opponent plays perfectly. Interestingly, but not surprisingly, it is way more important to get the correct value to bluff frequency than to nail down the perfect blockers, especially on the river (at least this is what I've noticed thus far). You can actually pick certain hands to bluff with on multiple streets that shouldn't even be bet in the first place according to GTO, but make it much easier to nail down the correct value to bluff frequency in practice. So I sacrifice a bit of EV for implementation. There are certain spots where you are supposed to mix with certain value and bluff combos, but you can adjust the strategy to pure bet and pure check/fold with combos and there isn't really a whole lot your opponent can do to get a significant edge.

For example, BU vs BB on A♠ K♥ 6♦ 2♣ 9♦ runout, I had the BU betting on the river with KK, 66, 22, AK, and A6s for pure value (20 combos) and 76s, 65s, Q♥ J♥, Q♠ J♠ for pure bluffs (10 combos). This strategy, though simple, did not give up too much EV versus a perfect opponent. When the ratio of value to bluffs was off it really screwed up the EV way more than when I picked the wrong combos.

Here is a cool hand for last month:

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 217 BB
UTG: 109.22 BB
Hero (CO): 156.12 BB
BTN: 150.34 BB
SB: 63.11 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♥ A♥

UTG raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 23 BB, fold, Hero calls 16 BB

Flop: (48.5 BB, 2 players) 5♠ T♥ 8♦
BB bets 15.21 BB, Hero calls 15.21 BB

Turn: (78.92 BB, 2 players) 6♣
BB checks, Hero bets 22 BB, BB calls 22 BB

River: (122.92 BB, 2 players) 6♥
BB checks, Hero bets 95.91 BB and is all-in, fold,

Opponent was an aggressive reg. When the turn card was a rainbow, I needed some hands to bluff with to balance out the times I have a set, but I don't really have many drawing hands so I thought AJs would do. River isn't the best for me since I now have less combos of 66 if my opponent thinks I 3-bet that, on the other hand 76s gets there, so maybe it is actually good. Jamming river seems pretty thin if I'm doing it for value, but I thought it would look credible as long as I don't do it too often, in this particular instance I decided to over bluff, because I really thought it would look credible versus this specific opponent. Opponent made a throw up emoji in the chat and asked if I had AA. I responded hoping it would make me look strong which is a bit risky, because he could see it as a reverse tell, but decided to do it anyway. Not sure if it had any affect on the final outcome, but he eventually folded which made me feel pretty happy.

I was chasing an $800 bonus if I hit a certain amount in rake. I began playing long hours trying to get the bonus. I started playing 6 tables instead of 4 to hit it faster, because I was on a crunch for time. One day I played over 16 hours. At first I was winning a lot of money very quickly. I was noticing a bit of fatigue and wasn't reaching the goal fast enough so I moved up to 200NL and lost a bunch. I did the math and it became unfeasible to reach the goal. On the bright side, I logged in several hours early in the month. I did end up hitting my 172 hour goal for the month with 75k+ hands. Made over $6K+ overall, if you include rakeback so not a bad month at all.

I've started playing 5 tables as a standard instead of 4. I had this weird mental rule I built in my head without realizing that I only play 4 or 6 tables. 6 is too much, but I actually can manage 5 without it affecting my play. Maybe it doesn't look as pretty on the desktop, but I think I can do it quite well without sacrificing deep thinking or much EV loss. Here is a really cool hand that I played:

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 106.57 BB
CO: 93.05 BB
BTN: 89.91 BB
Hero (SB): 337.96 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 107.39 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♣ 8♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 5♦ K♠ A♦
Hero bets 1.43 BB, BB raises to 5.71 BB, Hero raises to 18.55 BB, BB calls 12.84 BB

Turn: (43.1 BB, 2 players) 5♣
Hero checks, BB checks

River: (43.1 BB, 2 players) 2♦
Hero checks, BB bets 20.47 BB, Hero raises to 316.41 BB and is all-in, fold

On flop, I've simplified to small 1/4 bet, because people tend to overfold to this. After facing the raise, I did elect to 3-bet flop, because I think Kx isn't the greatest hand to start calling down and since this flop favors me, I can turn it into a bluff and it doesn't have zero equity and blocker affects. Solver prefers Ax I believe, but in practice, I like this Kx a bit more. I'm probably 3betting a bit more than I should in theory, but I think it is a good counter exploit since I think this guy will give it decent credit. Some players may end up over folding Ax here and calling with the flush draw, which I think is logical, but also wonderful for me.

Turn, I choose to check, because if I had AA or KK like the hand I am trying to represent, I would consider going for a check/raise here as you can extract more bluffs, value from 5x, and you allow the potential for a flush to come in. With my particular hand, I don't mind seeing a river too much if they have a flush draw. If they miss, that's great. If they hit the flush, well then I can do what I did on the river.

On the river, I did have the option to lead out, but I really feel a flush will bet here often with the intention of folding to a jam. I think a lot of good players would take this line, of course they could make a nitty check back, but sometimes you have to risk that option. I also will sometimes get additional money from hands like QJ, QT, or JT sometimes. Fortunately for me my opponent bet and folded to the jam with Q♦ 3♦ and showed.

In hindsight, I was probably overbluffing river a tad, because if I'm doing it with K8s, there are probably other combos of Kx I do it with. That being said, I don't think I'm going too crazy in this spot and I'm definitely not 3-betting K8s on flop at full frequency, so overall I was pretty happy with this bluff.

I've also worked on some new stats to add to the HUD popups such as betting turn after check/raising flop. Floating stats, more reactions to probe bets, and how players react when I raise their probes. I've also brought back fold to 5-bet stat on the main HUD which has been really useful for not bluffing with the A5s when I know they won't fold or jamming with it when I know they overfold. I've also removed a lot of the labels or made them smaller, because I already know what they are since I've played enough. This lets the HUD take up less space at the table and allows me to pack more useful stats into the profile later. I've also color coded the stats so it is easier on the eyes. Makes it so I don't have to count columns over. Here is what it looks like now:

Believe it or not guys. My Hud is getting even better. I've removed the labels for the columns because I already have them memorized and have added another bottom row with some of my new custom stats that I've built.

I have a stat called CBet Triple which takes PFR * flop cbet * turn cbet * river cbet. A lot of regs will have something between 2 and 3 most of the time. A few players will have it be a bit higher which makes these players a bit better to call down against. If it is 1 or less, then they are going to have a nittier range and these players you'll want to do less calling down against. Obviously it isn't the only thing I look at, but it has been quite helpful.

I've also made a stat called Call Bet Triple which takes the VPIP * flop calls * turn calls * river calls. This stat works similarly to CBet Triple, but gives me an idea for how thinly I can go for value.

I made a stat called Flat Power that takes (1 - c-bet OOP) * fold to float. This was going to measure how good it is for calling preflop opens while on the button, but in practice this stat hasn't really helped me that much so I'm thinking of removing it at some point.

I have added an extra column for floats on the flop followed up by betting turn and river. It won't be long before I make a stat called float bet triple. I haven't done it yet, but what I have so far has made it great for when I raise and an IP player calls. Sometimes I'll bet 1/4 pot depending on player type and board texture, but there are a lot of players that I'll range check against if their stats are a certain way. There are quite a few players that will give up on a lot of turns or others that will bet flop and turn too much but give up river. There are cool patterns to see, because these stats aren't probably looked at by a majority of players which can give me some valuable insight.

I've been playing 6 tables now with pretty good ability to focus. Here is a cool hand that I've played:

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 117.75 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 181.84 BB
BTN: 161.78 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 267.15 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9♠ 6♠

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) A♠ Q♥ Q♠
Hero checks, CO bets 3.09 BB, Hero calls 3.09 BB

Turn: (12.68 BB, 2 players) Q♦
Hero bets 18 BB, fold,

On the turn I elected to go for a 1.5x pot donk lead. I think this line can be pretty decent against the right opposition. My opponent had a flop c-bet percentage of 63.77, but also a high turn c-bet percentage of 77.78. You could make the argument for check/raising my hand, but I'm not really a fan of that option, because it can get pretty expensive and on this board he may check back to realize some of the equity with his higher flushes (even though he cbets turn quite a bit). One of the goals that I try to accomplish with small flush draws is to try and get the higher flush draws to fold. The best combos for bluffing are going to be hands that unblock str8 draws and flush draws. There aren't a lot of flop calls in my range that meet that criteria other than small pairs, but those tend to have showdown value. So I think this line is quite good to try and get Kx with spades and str8 draws to fold along with other junk. Qx is obviously continuing, but even Ax isn't probably feeling the best, but still calling. Some players might fold the Ax and show and that is the best feeling when that happens, but that is quite uncommon.

In this particular instance I was only bluffing and never had any Qx here, but my opponent doesn't know that and it is kind of an uncomfortable spot for him. If I was in his spot I'd probably be overfolding. There are other lines I could take such as hope turn goes check/check and I bluff river which is perfectly valid, but I do try and get creative with certain unorthodox lines. Sometimes they are probably horrendous, but other times they are quite good. I do get my fair share of haters for the way I play which brings me to my next point.

I have 4 players that I've played against that have berated me in chat and love to announce how terrible I am at poker. I have started using the mute feature which I am now very fond of. Instead of getting constant complaining about how lucky/bad I am I get three asterisk characters in the chat. I can see they are whining, but I don't have to read it.

Here are 3 hands that I've played against one of these players. I have some respect for his game, but he doesn't have any respect for mine and with that knowledge I can get away with some creative lines:

Hand #1
PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 95.06 BB
Hero (BB): 142.63 BB
UTG: 322.9 BB
MP: 115.47 BB
CO: 114.65 BB
BTN: 221.41 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ K♥

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) A♣ 9♥ A♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.31 BB, Hero raises to 3.27 BB, BTN raises to 5.23 BB, Hero raises to 16.99 BB, fold,

A little thing that I learned from the GTO wizard, is that on AAx board, the solver likes to check/raise a 25% vs a 1/4 cbet. It actually will check/raise for this size a lot. I'm not sure if KJo is the best combo to do this with, but I think it is better to check/raise a bit too much on this board than not at all. When he 3-bets small, it is definitely scary, but he does have a check/raise flop stat of 19 so I think it is reasonable for him to get a bit wild versus this small check/raise or even project his own overly loose range onto me. KJo does block some of those stronger Ax hands that would like to 3-bet flop. Solver actually likes to call versus his sizing which is interesting, but I decided to go for a pretty sizable 4-bet bluff which fortunately got the job done.

Hand #2
PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 103.5 BB
UTG: 116.94 BB
MP: 94 BB
Hero (CO): 109.18 BB
BTN: 98.5 BB
SB: 104.22 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ Q♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 9♣ J♠ J♦
BB checks, Hero bets 1.57 BB, BB raises to 4.73 BB, Hero calls 3.16 BB

Turn: (14.46 BB, 2 players) 7♥
BB bets 10.31 BB, Hero calls 10.31 BB

River: (35.08 BB, 2 players) 7♦
BB bets 8.33 BB, Hero raises to 33.33 BB, fold,

Since my opponent's check/raise stat is 19 he can definitely end up at this river with quite a bit of hands. I can't really go crazy with my bluffs against him, because he can adjust, but QTo is a decent hand that blocks some Jx combos and is also strong enough to call a turn barrel. Unfortunately I do block the str8 which is definitely a hand I would like to fold. Solver likes to bluff exclusively with AA in my spot, which is pretty cool, but I did not think about that at the time. Fortunately he folded.

Hand #3
PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 107.6 BB
BB: 101.27 BB
UTG: 139.54 BB
CO: 269.63 BB
Hero (BTN): 101.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♦ A♦

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 7 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 5 BB

Flop: (15.5 BB, 2 players) 2♥ A♥ 6♠
UTG checks, Hero bets 4.86 BB, UTG calls 4.86 BB

Turn: (25.22 BB, 2 players) A♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 22 BB, UTG calls 22 BB

River: (69.22 BB, 2 players) T♥
UTG bets 105.68 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 67.64 BB and is all-in

This final hand is really interesting, because of the donk lead on the river. I have a heuristic that for any value hand that you would bet for that sizing yourself you can defend slightly wider than that facing a donk. This makes sense, because the hands that you would have bluffed now have to fold, so now calling a bit wider will keep the donks from being able to rip you apart. In this particular instance this donk bet puts me in a bit of a pickle, because it feels like a pretty strong line. I actually would have jammed with my hand in this particular spot, but I do feel as though it is thin with the flush coming in. I felt as though he would have done this with ATs and not flushes. I could be wrong about this, but I went with my read. If that is correct then AKs is actually a better bluff catcher than a flush since the ace is a diamond that blocks half of the ATs combos he could do this with. In theory, AKs is a mix between folding and calling. I thought he might be tilting a bit and might be doing some weird bluff, but he did go into the time bank before jamming on the river which I feel like was an honest decision that he had to make on whether check/calling or jamming would be more profitable. If he was tilting I think the bet would happen quicker, so based on that timing tell, maybe I can actually fold this. Solver likes to pure check with ATs, but jam KQs with flush and some 66. As bluffs it likes to donk jam 99 and 88 with a heart. Can't win them all though.

I actually have quite a bit of respect for this regs game, but those feelings are not reciprocated. When players have disdain for your game I do feel that they are more susceptible to folding to creative bluffs. Since they think you are sooooo bad, they assume you can't find some of the more elaborate bluffs.

I know I said that I'd like to post one hand normally in a post, but these hands were just pretty cool. So sue me, haha.

I've been dabbling a bit more into 200NL and it has been going a bit better. Still in the red there, but I am improving I think.

I didn't play as much in November, but it was still a good month nevertheless.

I'm passed 500k hands now which is cool.

Doing very well at 100NL and 50NL with adjusted winrates of 7.15bb/100 @ 369,709 hands and 11.76bb/100 @ 108,298 hands respectively. However at 200NL I still seem to suck ass for some reason. My adjusted winrate there is -1.61bb/100 @ 58,608 hands. It feels as though I've been running into these awful setup hands where I run into the nuts a bit, but perhaps that's just a cope for the fact that my skills haven't reached that level yet.

Here are two cool hands:

Hand #1

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 112.56 BB
Hero (BTN): 157.28 BB
SB: 63.26 BB
BB: 80 BB
UTG: 171.28 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T♣ T♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, BB calls 8 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (27.5 BB, 3 players) 6♦ 8♠ 9♣
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (27.5 BB, 3 players) 7♦
BB checks, UTG bets 28.99 BB, Hero calls 28.99 BB, fold

River: (85.48 BB, 2 players) 6♣
UTG checks, Hero bets 20.62 BB, UTG raises to 133.29 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 98.67 BB and is all-in

My opponent was a loose aggressive type. I think a lot of players can sometimes telegraph their hand with a large sizing like on this turn. My read was that he would not take this line with a set or two pair. So when the board paired on the river, I went for an exploitatively small size to chop with the straight, but also induce a check/raise from missed flush draws. There is some merit to jamming to bluff him off chops, but I believe he often just bets river himself when he has a ten so I think he is more weighed toward missed flush draws. He ended up having A♦ J♦

Hand #2

PokerStars - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 71.17 BB
CO: 213.89 BB
BTN: 106.06 BB
Hero (SB): 102.85 BB
BB: 126.83 BB

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2♦ 5♦

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) A♦ Q♦ 8♠
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

Turn: (9 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero checks, UTG bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

River: (17 BB, 2 players) 3♥
Hero bets 4.02 BB, UTG raises to 11.04 BB, Hero raises to 94.85 BB and is all-in, fold,

I really enjoy taking these small donk leads on the river. It doesn't seem like a lot of other players are doing them that much, but I think they are extremely profitable. In this particular hand, my opponent raised my lead quite small. I think if he had a good hand he would have raised bigger. Since this spot isn't reached all that often in the game tree, I think people have a harder time not giving information away, especially recreational players. When he raises small it almost seems like he wants to call me, because he thinks I'm weak but doesn't have a hand to call me with so he goes small. I went for the jam, not sure if it is good because it is an expensive bluff, but it fortunately got through.

I went through my database and noticed that a lot of regs are only folding to 5-bets around 33% of the time when in theory it should be closer to 50%. The earlier the position that they 4-bet, the less often they fold. This increases the value of 5-bet jamming AA and not 5-bet bluffing as much. A lot of regs have been following the solver by flatting 4-bets in position with AA. I believe this to be a mistake versus most players. Another thing about flatting AA vs the 4-bet is that it assumes that the players 4-betting will have the appropriate aggression, but that isn't always the case either. I believe the correct play is to 5-bet jam AA pure until they have proven that they can fold enough. Once they do that, being able to 5-bet bluff a hand like A5s becomes a nice treat.

The biggest nightmare is to flat AA and hit trips on the flop and now they have an excuse to fold their QQ where they would have called a jam pre. Same case when they have AK and miss the flop.

I tried out Jurojin's software, because I wanted to have something that would remember the action that takes place in a hand, because sometimes I lose track while playing multiple tables. However, it was too glitchy to my liking. They do have a button that picks a geometric betsize, which is really cool. It does feel a bit like cheating though, but technically the software is allowed on the site. At this time though, I won't be using it. While on the topic about geometric bet sizes, it got me to thinking about lines that I take that are non-geometric bet sizes to encourage players to fold. There was a player I played against where I bet 1/4 flop, 1/4 turn, and jammed river because I noticed their fold to river stat was high. I think that is part of the beauty of bet sizing that can often get overlooked when players only go for one sizing on a specific street. I believe it is good to have a standard, but I also think it is good to always plan ahead and look for other lines with unconventional bet sizes to get the result you want especially if the stats line up.

If a flop comes AK6r. I can bet 1/4 flop versus a lot of people and they'll fold too much so I don't even need to go for the standard over bet sizing. To follow up on that, some players will have a turn fold stat of like 60%+ and turn check/raise stat of something like 5%. Versus this player, I think it is better to go for a 3/4 size rather than the standard turn over bet because if they have a great hand they'll probably check/raise it any way and stacks will get in, but the smaller size allows for weaker hands to continue. ATo might call a 3/4 size, but fold to a turn over bet. The 3/4 size works well for bluffs too because they are over folding. I can also go for a large over bet with absolute junk hands on occasion, because they are going to fold too much and I don't need any value hands in that sizing. Interestingly versus more calling stationish players I like to do the large over bets with junk even a bit more often, but usually with a bit of equity and check back the absolute junk. I can also throw some monster hands like KK in there, because their turn check/raise stat might be too low. Everybody is different, but it is fun to think about this kind of stuff when I'm not at the table and can ramble in this thread.

I have some big plans for next year and I hope I can make them come to fruition.

December kinda sucked, but so far I'm running pretty hot in January. I want to play 1 million hands this year and hopefully clear $100k if all goes well. Gonna get a whole new computer setup, possibly add more tables, and make tax-adjusted plans for the year to get the best bang for my buck. I built a program on Gamemaker that would generate random flops at the click of a button.

I've reimagined a flop classification strategy so that I can organize them into 3 syllable words. So on a flop of J♠ 6♥ 2♣ which could be said to be a "jack high flop, disconnected, rainbow board" I simply say to myself "jack split rain". The first syllable denotes the rank of the flop (Ace-Two). The second syllable denotes type (split, pair, stray, mono, trip). The last syllable determines whether it is two-toned or rainbow (paint, rain). Monotone flops and trip flops don't get a third syllable for simplification purposes and because I categorize them separately strategically. For instance, A84tt and A84r have more in common than A84m. The syllable thing makes it easier for my brain to access my thoughts. I know it sounds weird, but I believe it works.

I made a bluff on A3333 board versus a recreational player. It felt good, because that board is a chop. With his playing style I felt there was a good chance he wouldn't recognize that it is a chop since it is a fairly uncommon spot and some people don't realize that it doesn't matter if I hold an ace or not, because nothing beats 4 of a kind with ace kicker. I made a slight over bet on river to get the fold which felt like a good risk/reward ratio.

Best of luck in 2025!

Subbed!

Are you playing stars USA? If you keep working as hard as you currently are you will be moving above 200nl to higher by eoy imo

Nice thread and interesting approach. Some cool lines in your hands and looks like your hard work is paying off. Good luck!

Thanks for the encouragement guys. Pokerarb, I do play on Stars in the USA. I'm pretty sure I've seen you at the tables. I hope I can get to 200NL as well. I hate the fact that I'm a gigantic baby when it comes to downswings. I am getting better at it though I think.