Bitcoins - digital currency
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer digital currency. Peer-to-peer (P2P) means that there is no central authority to issue new money or keep track of transactions. Instead, these tasks are managed collectively by the nodes of the network. Advantages:
- Bitcoins can be sent easily through the Internet, without having to trust middlemen.
- Transactions are designed to be computationally prohibitive to reverse.
- Be safe from instability caused by fractional reserve banking and central banks. The limited inflation of the Bitcoin system’s money supply is distributed evenly (by CPU power) throughout the network, not monopolized by banks.
Total size 5,811,700 BTC
or 4,585,431 USD
or 3,545,137 EUR
or 133,094,323 RUB
or 3,849 ounces of gold
Any value to this idea or will it never work?
Saw a screenshot of someone buying .01 bitcoin for $180 at 16k. Seems outlandish now.
I DCA'd all the way down and didn't feel good about it in the least(though I still had real conviction), but man you always wish you stacked harder.
A lesson for the next cycle. Same as the prior cycle.
What news did I miss to get to 71k today?
More than ETH ETF, its that the Democratics are starting to realize this is an election issue so they are starting to be less opposed.
Approved SAB-121 repeal (Biden said he'd veto, but might be changing course now. We'll find out by Saturday)
ETH ETF has become likely.
Narrative changing is mega bullish.
Both parties fighting for the crypto vote. Warren is defeated.
Its crazy to think that if our favourite restaurant has a half off burgers day we'd rush out to buy, but when Bitcoin is half off me get scared to buy more.
We all do it too. I had to condition myself to buy whenever i felt scared it could go lower.
...Now to teach myself to sell a little when I get euphoric lol
Saw a screenshot of someone buying .01 bitcoin for $180 at 16k. Seems outlandish now.
I DCA'd all the way down and didn't feel good about it in the least(though I still had real conviction), but man you always wish you stacked harder.
A lesson for the next cycle. Same as the prior cycle.
^ I find bottoms much easier to detect than tops and there are plenty of good indicators out there showing when the bear market bottom is near. Personally, I rather enjoy having opportunities to dump fiat into Bitcoin when it’s 80% off its latest ATH. That is how you make money after all. The volatility and predictability of crypto cycles can be a blessing if you have the stomach for it.
Anyone here involved in the Mt Gox distribution? I think it is expected people will get around 10-15% of what they had on MtGox at the time?
It is in the news this morning on the back of a big transfer. They expect the repayments to happen over the course of the next few months.
Saw a screenshot of someone buying .01 bitcoin for $180 at 16k. Seems outlandish now.
I DCA'd all the way down and didn't feel good about it in the least(though I still had real conviction), but man you always wish you stacked harder.
A lesson for the next cycle. Same as the prior cycle.
Same
However,
1. You could show a screenshot of buying 0.01 btc today and it will (probably) look outlandish in some time in the future.
2. will it even be a lesson next time. I saw something showing stats that most (not all) simply don't stack harder during the bear market when they should be...
Yup, find a mid American city house in 1920s and graph its price chart up to today. Will look outlandish.
A few thousand dollars to upwards of a million.
Anyone here involved in the Mt Gox distribution? I think it is expected people will get around 10-15% of what they had on MtGox at the time?
It is in the news this morning on the back of a big transfer. They expect the repayments to happen over the course of the next few months.
I am still waiting for the cash part of my accepted claim so no idea when the much more important BTC part gets transferred into my Kraken account. I will post here when that happens but after I sober up.
who did this?
Just making sure you are staying active on social media. Also, was curious to see if timex ever lurks this thread.
I am still waiting for the cash part of my accepted claim so no idea when the much more important BTC part gets transferred into my Kraken account. I will post here when that happens but after I sober up.
Do you mind disclosing what the breakdown will be when its finished? Is the cash fiat you had on the exchange or are they paying part of the BTC in cash and part as a % of BTC? I seen somewhere else that it will work out to 16% of the BTC you had on the exchange. What was BTC at the time price wise, $100/$200?
What a crazy day that will be when it is sitting in an account you own after all this time. That will be a celebratory drunk day well deserved!
I gave up trying to determine the percentages especially since I elected to get an initial payment and then a final payment when all disputes are settled. You could also elect to get an early lump sum settlement which means you got more now but lose the right to additional money/coins if the disputed claims fail. Then on top of that you get a minimum cash payment even if you had only BTC on the site. Estimates range from 13% to 33% of your BTC back when all is settled. Early lump sum is about 21% of your BTC but some of that is in cash. The cost average of the BTC I still had on MtGox when it failed was below $100 and my accountant still isn't sure what this settlement means when it comes taxes. Not that it matters as the coins definitely will be held till moon.
Did we have anyone in here calling for ATHs prior to the halving near the bottom last cycle?
If so, I'd love to hear your thoughts on what the rest of this cycle looks like in your eyes.
We are starting to hear about England and Canada cutting rates in June/July. Fed will probably cut within 6 months after those cuts as Central banks take turns. But historically, those cuts end up markinga local top in stocks and we see a period of time for the bears. Bitcoin probably wont be immune as much as I hope it could decouple itself from teh stock market.
Im kinda looking for a Q3-Q4 blow off top before a lingering, slow bleed bear market seeping into 2026.
Still fully positioned from the 15k btc lows on margin and leverage but im actively looking at shedding position size if we get anything that looks like a violent move higher.
Please share your outlook and ideas and lets work together on timing this top.
We are starting to hear about England and Canada cutting rates in June/July. Fed will probably cut within 6 months after those cuts as Central banks take turns. But historically, those cuts end up markinga local top in stocks and we see a period of time for the bears. Bitcoin probably wont be immune as much as I hope it could decouple itself from teh stock market.
Im kinda looking for a Q3-Q4 blow off top before a lingering, slow bleed bear market seeping into 2026.
Please share your outlook and
That's what I'm seeing too.
I think stocks/Bitcoin will be fine over the next 4 months or so and the Fed cuts will be a sell the news event, maybe inflation starts reacelerating again as the Fed allows more liquidity into the system and a bear market starts to run into 2026.
From 2012 until 2016 Gold had a horrible downswing, in anticipation of the Fed hiking rates, it fell from 1800 to 1000, and the hike itself actually market the bottom.
Did we have anyone in here calling for ATHs prior to the halving near the bottom last cycle?
That was an insignificant event... though, it was a headline event.
We are starting to hear about England and Canada cutting rates in June/July. Fed will probably cut within 6 months after those cuts as Central banks take turns. But historically, those cuts end up marking a local top in stocks and we see a period of time for the bears.
That is completely backwards... adding cheaper liquidity to a range bound or stagnate market leads to accelerated growth curves and an expanding broader market increase. *THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE for the hard asset category... EXCEPT Gold.
if they don't print additional liquidity, we still may experience consumer based and supply chain based inflationary effects.
Im kinda looking for a Q3-Q4 blow off top before a lingering, slow bleed bear market seeping into 2026.
if you try and trade the market based on false projections, you're going to miss opportunities in yield. waiting for a clear signal, either upwards or downwards, means you either miss gains in yield or compounds your losses... Dollar cost average until the first quarter 2025... maybe even until second quarter 2025.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on what the rest of this cycle looks like in your eyes.
Please share your outlook and ideas and lets work together on timing this top.
baring black swan events... I think things are going to play out similarly to other cycle trends with a bit more emphasis on larger sovereign and large institutional engagement.
the main thing is, it takes bigger capitalization/investments to drive a larger market capitalization asset, therefore we may experience much much larger moves from small assets that do not require such liquidity inflow in order to make that asset move.
That was an insignificant event... though, it was a headline event.
That is completely backwards... adding cheaper liquidity to a range bound or stagnate market leads to accelerated growth curves and an expanding broader market increase. *THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE for the hard asset category... EXCEPT Gold.
if they don't print additional liquidity, we still may experience consumer based and supply chain based inflationary effects.
if you try and trade the market based on false projections, you're go
1. Yes, the halving could be an insignificant event in the sense the 4 year cycle is really just a perfect fit with quantitative easing cycles that happen to line up at the same time.
2. Twitter is full of great information and charts showing throughout history that the start of interest rate cuts mark the tops. The reason they are cutting is usually because something is breaking and the economy needs a boost. The gains from these rates comes during the latter half as the pandelum has once again swung too far towards easing.
3. I've been trading the market for decades. Timing bitcoin is something completely different. I have no need to DCA as Ive been all in on margain and leverage from the lows. The next 2-14 months is when I exit my leverage (while still hold some spot) and plan my next entry during 2026.
That's me in the picture above calling the bottom around 16k and calling for ATHs prior to it ever happening in past cycles. Im here to time the market and get it right. DCA is good for the masses but Ive dedicated years to learning.
4. I too hope things play out like a regular cycle. It would make things so much easier to trade. I know a left translated cycle is all the rage right now and hopefully that doesnt play out, but if it does, I hope to be ready. I wrote about it here if you want to read my thoughts on a LTC. https://x.com/Knows_Bo/status/1745252278...
I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.
That's what I'm seeing too.
I think stocks/Bitcoin will be fine over the next 4 months or so and the Fed cuts will be a sell the news event, maybe inflation starts reacelerating again as the Fed allows more liquidity into the system and a bear market starts to run into 2026.
From 2012 until 2016 Gold had a horrible downswing, in anticipation of the Fed hiking rates, it fell from 1800 to 1000, and the hike itself actually market the bottom.
What'll really bake your noodle is if the reason we see a top in the markets over the next month(s) (or year) is because of disinflation
Disinflation would prove Cathie Wood correct, so I would bet heavily against it.
When the Fed cuts rates it means businesses and individuals will seek more loans to spend into the economy, which increases demand for everything, which is inflationary. Also, money that is lying idle earning 5% also starts to be spent into the economy, since it isn't earning anything anymore, which increase demand for everything furter, more inflation.
Disinflation would be bullish for stocks, because it would mean lower rates.
Historically, you subtract 20 from the inflation rate and you get the pe of the market.
When inflation was 12% in the early 80s you had an 8 pe on the S and P 500.
Basically if you think we are going back to a world like 2010 to 2020 where inflation was very low and rates were very low, you can make an argument for stocks/real estate and Bitcoin here.
If you think inflation will be high this decade and we will be in a rising rate environment, stocks/real estate and Bitcoin are going to get hit and they are going to get hit hard.
So place your bets.
