Shoving equity vs suspected Jonah 🐋
Do we have enough shoving equity here? Have V marked as station/suspected whale. 4b felt like it was an annoyed 4bet
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 109.8 BB
BB: 112 BB
UTG: 164.6 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 128.2 BB
SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q♥ A♥
UTG raises to 2.6 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG raises to 24 BB, Hero calls 15 BB
Flop: (49.4 BB, 2 players) J♣ J♦ 9♥
UTG checks, Hero bets 76 BB and is all-in
11 Replies
Feels like a punt.
Yeah it's a huge losing play. Even worse if he is a whale.
You know, when you just know? (he called my bs db earlier with third pair, I was anticipating some pushback)
Spolier because instructive:
Let's say he Xs all his air (which is going to be a lot by the looks of it), then two overcards w/backdoors seems like reasonable ammo? AA/KK/QQ nearly always cbet, 4b X range super shaky...good blockers. I know FE is minimal to non-existent but we do have ok Eq vs a face-up air and lower PP range?
perhaps this is results orientated reverse engineered implied 4b horseshit
Let's say he calls all AK, AJs and A9s. We have ~25% vs that
Quick shove calc suggests we need 34% fold to break even. Idk, my assumption is there's enough air to fold out 1/3 range (read dependent).
and those numbers get better the more lower PPs/whale calls we add in
a station/whale is never folding a better hand
They likely don't 4-bet anything worse than AK, and if they do they're betting flop
Calling station whale - play as many pots with him as the table dynamics allow, hit big and profit. There is no need to get into situations like this. The (almost (there are exceptions and it depends on the dynamics and on the specific whale)) only time I'll try to bluff this kind of player is if the pot is small and if I've got the suspicion that he thinks I never bluff (so it's good for me if he calls and sees the bluff and obviously good if he folds as well, will do the same thing frequently until he calls). Life can be very simple, don't make it hard. Your ultimate aim is to stack him with a better hand, so you need a) play as many pots with him as possible and b) don't have a nit image, that's all.
I think that's right.
I need to focus on my value range vs these players. That said, shoving range on flop after x? TT+?
I think this is basically the worst way to play the hand haha
'if you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there'