5/5 AQ top pair+fd

I don’t think we have many bets 3-ways when a flush comes in, since the two callers have more suited cards than we do (the BB has the most). I check. If CO bets and BB raises, we have an easy fold. If CO bets and BB calls or folds, we have an easy call.

I bet ~$75. It's going to be tough for them to raise w/o the Ah, and I don't want to face a bigger bet. Set your price -- you could easily be ahead, regardless.

Setting your price is not a good reason for betting especially with one player checking to us on turn with another player behind us.

We are going to puke if we get check raised on turn. We might get raised by a turned straight too as well as turned 2 pairs.

The 9hhh on turn is much better for their ranges than our range. Even typical passive live players at these stakes will raise 2pair/straight/flushes over a turn bet from the PFR in this situation.

I'm check-calling here, as much as I'd like to bet, given our equity. We have to consider the flop calling ranges of the BB and CO. There are a number of K and Q high flush combos as well as some connectors (65hh); there are also two gut-shots in JT/J9 and 67/56, in addition to Qx, 8x, and maybe 4x for CO. Since we don't really need to protect our equity, checking and value betting our TPTK or nut flush on the river is the best option.

It's an OMC and a rec player -- they are very rarely raising here w/o the nuts, and they can't have the nuts. Bet and evaluate river.

If CO bets turn, we are calling, correct? He's never betting less than $75 -- keep control of the hand.

If turn checks through, do we just check a blank river and hope nobody bets? Do we fold if they do bet?

My plan here:

I check, and if CO bets, I call.
OTR:
I check and evaluate. I might consider calling again.

If the action goes x x:
OTR, if the OMC bets, I fold. If the OMC x, I go for value.

I don't mind if they fold. They will call with Kh/Jh/Th with a Q, maybe a couple of other worse hands. As I said, I'd rather bet $75 than check/call a bigger bet, and I don't want it to check through and let them his some ridiculous two pair or straight on the river. Plus, if they do have a heart, we might get a little more out of them on a heart river.

javanewt,

We can value bet a lot of rivers if the turn checks through.

If another heart comes, we can obviously value bet the nut flush. If a blank comes, we can assume that the turn check behind us heavily caps the CO's range away from flushes/straights. If the BB checks river on a blank to us, then we are often against two capped ranges. Therefore, we should be able to value bet on the river against KQ/QJ/QT/etc.

javanewt, I don't think that your strategy would be so bad if the turn was a tiny heart like the 2 of hearts. We wouldn't expect a deuce of hearts to complete any straights/2pairs.

9 of hearts on the turn is more scary though. jT makes a turned gutshot straight. Q9s/98 have just made 2 pair. So it's one of the ultimate scare cards that might have improved one of our Villains to a better and that our TPTK.

I also think that you are underestimating the chances of us getting raised on this turn card.

FWIW, we should not be that worried about facing a big bet from CO to the point that we make a bad turn bet with TPTK+NFD.

OP's description of villains clearly states OMC and rec player -- they are just never raising this turn w/o the Ah. Maybe if CO has a K-high flush he will raise, so we can easily fold, but I'd rather bet/fold $75 than call a bigger bet. I'm fine if they both fold.

If we check/call turn, we have to fold if one of them bets on a non-heart river. If turn checks through, what do we do on a (non-heart) K, J, T, 9, even 8? Fold to a bet from OMC, check/fold to a bet from CO? Are we betting one of those cards?

Plus, if we bet the turn and one or both call, we have a bigger pot for a heart river, which they aren't calling anyway -- unless they have a decent flush, and then only maybe. So if the heart comes, we win more and sacrifice less.