99 vs 3bet
BTN seems to be kind of regular (multitabling and always 100bb+ stack)
Guess it's a bad idea try to blow him of an overpair with minraise turn and shove river? This wont work at this limit right?
What would you expect villains range to be from a typicial reg at his limit?
If his range contains some bluffs, what you expect them to be?
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat
UTG: $5.25 (105 bb)
MP (Hero): $5.72 (114 bb)
CO: $7.13 (143 bb)
BU: $5.00 (100 bb)
SB: $7.26 (145 bb)
BB: $8.34 (167 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with 9♠ 9♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.12, 1 fold, BTN 3-bets to $0.43, 2 players fold, Hero calls $0.31
Flop: ($0.93) 2♦ 5♣ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30
Turn: ($1.53) 4♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.99, Hero raises to $1.98, BTN calls $0.99
River: ($5.49) 3♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.01 (all-in), BTN calls $2.29 (all-in)
10 Replies
I wouldn't try to bluff people off overpairs at 5NL. I would just fold the turn (or potentially even preflop).
Looks like you at least chopped the pot?!
turn x/r doesnt make any sense, whats your story, that you flat a 3bet preflop with with some random 3 that called flop to hit a gutter? His flop sizing gives him too much leverage to outplay you on the turn so next time just raise. He's only going to call with high pairs that have good showdown value. Yeah he probably folds AK high but thats fine because we dont want to have to hero call some weird Tx or Jx river.
turn x/r doesnt make any sense, whats your story, that you flat a 3bet preflop with with some random 3 that called flop to hit a gutter? His flop sizing gives him too much leverage to outplay you on the turn so next time just raise. He's only going to call with high pairs that have good showdown value. Yeah he probably folds AK high but thats fine because we dont want to have to hero call some weird Tx or Jx river.
Well the story I hade in mind was i could play 22-66 this way. In fact I would fold them pre but at this Level dont people expect me to call any PP pre? If so minraise Turn and shove River gives me max EV against OVP cause players would call.....
Writing this down I already get the feeling I start to level myself with this kind of thinking processs.....
Anyway I would still like to know what you expect Villains range to be like assuming he is a multitabling reg and NL5?
Anyway I would still like to know what you expect Villains range to be like assuming he is a multitabling reg and NL5?
Question is too broad in my opinion. For sure the population is 3betting too tight compared to theory, so I expect they have a lot of AK, JJ+ and not enough Axs / broadways / small suited connectors / small pairs which are supposed to be mixed 3bet/call or 3bet/fold.
99 is a mixed 4bet/call/fold I believe in your position, I tend to overfold it at microstakes but I think this is a leak of mine, not too sure
I think overfolding oop works fine @ micros. We're not really folding equity because we struggle to realise as it is, let alone v linear ranges. and almost nobody is going to adjust and counter us
If I thought BU was 3betting properly I'd consider calling sometimes and maybe x/r the flop - given his sizing is probably a leak.
Trying to represent hands that are convenient for you to win with is a leak. It'd be like blasting off on a AKJ82r river because "i could have QT" totally ignoring your own image and implications of what it would mean for you to flat a 5bet preflop with QT.
You are assuming V could put you not only on 22+ but that you'd play it like this, and then value bet when the straight gets there. That means from his POV you have to think he's dumb enough to station off with KK on a 24569 board. It's just too tall an ask.
I think calling or folding turn is probably alright. I'd be inclined to give them at least some bluffs if they're multitabling or reglike.
But this is also not a spot where we can do very much about anything either. If the board was more like T96 or JT4 then we can start getting inventive because there are, ultimately, a higher concentration of those hands in our range and any reasonably thinking player knows it. In that case IP is in trouble with a much larger part of their range that is, conversely, in this instance crushing us on this board. I also think a fish will overcall 2x
If we don't have a lot of fold equity then our bluffcatchers with reasonable SDV are much more valuable. Which means there's even less reason to use them as the few bluffs we are allowed, and against a range that usually owns us with vastly superior range adv anyway. Even though we win coolers sometimes, it's still not enough to diminish their other advantages:: top pair over second pair, perpetually; being in position and control of the hand; and all while having the initiative/uncapped range.
We also need better range ammunition (only 2 outs vs their OPs is quite bad) to attack an uncapped range. Primarily we have to smash their value range sometimes to make it all worthwhile, hence draws to the nuts are usually better. Having a greater concentration of nutted combos is where bluffs are born.
Having said that, nought wrong with pulling the trigger sometimes too and half-guessing the theory. I'm a fan of this approach.
Just checked in gto+ and yes we could attack the flop with a XR if they use smaller sizing. And, news to me, we're supposed to donk a lot on this turn after the XC for b25. That makes sense because until they've bet they're still quite wide, and we get value from making them fold out equity on a turn they will/should check back often.
Once we X and they bet you can see how gto prioritises TT/99 as bluffcatchers while sacrificing combos that block the straights:
T9, JT, QTs are all double blockers with poor SDV and so it picks those first. TT/99 looking to hold the fort.
I was wrong about the sizing though. 2x seems fine.
A problem that jumps out at this point in the tree however is that IP will probably bet too much AA/KK/QQ (and be overall stronger) on the turn. Weakening our bluff ratio
Fold turn. In my experience against 5nl regs this is a higher pocket pair most of the time when they fire again on the turn in a 3bet pot.
You won't get them to fold AA/KK 100bb deep on this kind of board.
