2/5 facing overbet

I feel like this very big overbets from fish are made hands that are terrified of being drawn out on. With two FDs on the board as well as a three to a straight especially. Turbo-fold, imo.

I see similar posts to this then and then, all attributing them to fish/but I always wonder.

You've seen villain for 2 orbits, how do we know he's fishy for sure? Maybe his style of play is hyper aggressive postflop and he does very well. Lots of styles win $.

If he's shoving with 8/9 outs, that's fishy. But if he has pair/flush draw/straight draw and he's OOP against you That's not fishy. If you've only seen him for 2 orbits that means he's only seen you for 2 orbits and maybe he's testing you to get reads for future hands.

I just let this one go, saying something like "I hate AK" blah, blah, blah. Store his action in your brain for the future

This is a very standard fold.

Call Flop, Raise Turn at these levels should be assumed to be nutted line unless we have evidence to the contrary and we don't. Fold and don't think twice.

The fact it's very large is because he's likely scared you will outdraw him (as Garick said)

I would not bet the flop especially not with your hand

Agree should not have bet the flop.

So are people putting him on T6/T4/T3? Wouldnt a guy deathly afraid of being out drawn raise 66/44/33/75 otf?

Hard to say what the bet size and speed tells are saying, as it can be player specific in that some think betting thick value fast and big makes it look bluffy.
What you know is you're facing a big bet and need to have the winner at showdown 41% of the time.
If this player has been fairly passive and has no clear reason to be on tilt, then probably fold.

As for the "fear" theory that's one possible reason, he slowplayed one street and now that you're betting bigger it's time to cash out. There's also the "fear" that you won't pay him off if one of the flush draws hit

At first look, I believe this is a closer than others have suggested. Players do overvalue combo draws in these circumstances, not always fully understanding the size of their shove in relation to the pot. You unblock both nut flushes so against As2s/As5s and Ah5h you're doing well (but no so well against As6s, As4s). There are a number of heart combos with a T that you're in very good shape against, too. I mean we only need a little more than 40%. I don't believe this is an auto-fold, especially as I'm not convinced villain is slow-playing a set, straight or two-pair that often on the flop.

Ok. Yeah appreciate this reasoning, i think youre right

well somewhat quick on the reveal on this one because I dont think much more is needed.

Not that it’s all that relevant to your Turn decision, but I think betting a 643hh flop OOP (as the preflop aggressor) is pretty bad. Though perhaps doing it with your specific hand (the weakest ace-high you’ll ever have here, and one that isn’t connected to the board in the slightest, not even a backdoor draw) makes it a little better—your hand is worth nothing so it doesn’t hurt so much if you get raised.

That sounds right to me. I know I did that OTT a few times in my mediocre reg phase, including twice during the first session I ever booked a $1K loss.

GinbeforemediocreregphaseisstillongoingG

i think it was mediocre regs to be the ones who overbet jam with their draw, not fish.
fish overbet to protect what they think is the best hand

these have been what I've seen over the years

My observation is that a quick jam on the turn, when the nuts change or a BD draw appears, is usually a very strong hand.