The NHL Thread

The NHL Thread

For the 5 of us who post NHL stuff, here you go. Officially the season starts Tuesday October 11, although there were tw

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11 October 2022 at 01:36 AM
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5
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i know, i said them.
and then what happened?

by 72off k

oilers xg for the west final by game: 56%, 59%, 37%, 60%, 61%, 17%

they were slightly better in 4/6 games, somewhat lucky this series isn't going to a game 7.

oilers pp 14.46 goals per 60 (10.48 in regular season)
oilers pk 2.05 goals against per 60 (7.46 in regular season)
so basically their special teams are running hot by 9-10 goals per 60 in the playoffs

they played pretty well overall, skinner wasn't completely horrible, special teams remained insanely hot, etc aaannnd ... they squeaked by. even though it should have gone to a game 7 and then who knows, they squeaked by.

now they need to do it again, against possibly an even better team.


Hey 72off

Came across this, not sure 100 percent accurate as I am a little surprised by the bottom part a bit. Airbus a320 I know the Leafs have or do take it.

If you can see it....


Article about your Vancouver Canucks plane:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5444149...

Hammerhands Winnipeg Jets Plane:

https://www.tiktok.com/@nhljets/video/72...


now thats some next level research lol 👍

this series may prove once and for all whether the a320 or b757 is the superior plane. exciting, stay tuned


Remember the good ole days when this week would be the NHL awards and a champion already crowned? I do.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_N0VMjJ...

hockey psychology dropped what appears to be his finals preview ^, examining the systems, tactics, etc of both teams, and it looks pretty good. better than most of his stuff anyway (which isn't to say that his stuff is bad, but he does churn out so many videos that he invariably gets sloppy sometimes). anyway let's look at some topics he covered, and a few that he didn't. also i didn't talk about everything he mentioned, so check the video out.

cliffs: tl;dr

Spoiler
Show

- fla 1-2-2 forecheck (aggressive containment?)
- fla cycle / puck support
- importance of f3
- fla neutral zone turnovers ---> transition offense

just grouping a bunch of points about florida together, because of how they related they are and stuff ..... ok so apparently the panthers have a solid forecheck setup. he says they use a 1-2-2, and to my mind that's all about containment. smothering the breakout, muddying the ice; it's kind of like an offensive zone trap. the first guy (f1) isn't even necessarily even trying to win the puck, but to force the breakout one way and slow it down. the other 4 are closing in and cutting off outlets. at this point you may have disrupted a clean breakout and possibly created a puck battle or generated a turnover (but if not you've probably slowed them down at least, maybe forced them sideways, and now you're dropping into your neutral zone trap). he says everyone on the panthers are good on the boards, so i guess i'll take his word for that too. apparently this is where they thrive, by creating puck scrums and winning them.

he says florida doesn't at all mind playing dump and chase, getting hits on the dmen, battling on the boards, forcing them to make plays under pressure over and over. could be pretty massive if the panthers can get hits on bouchard and ekholm, and while their other dmen have good size, they're not exactly the best at making plays with the puck. this is where the panthers have to make #3 dman cody ceci pay, get on him and wear his ass out. phrasing. he also says they're good at creating turnovers and generating offense in transition, i could see that happening here.

think he said somewhere in this vid that maurice has a hard rule about f3 being responsible, and big if true. i love it. to me, f3 not ****ing up (and 90% of this is just being in the right position, the other 10% is not taking any crazy gambles and getting burnt) is a massive thing, it just solves so many problems with one simple trick. a well-positioned, relatively quick, hard-working f3 makes it virtually impossible to generate any transition offense, because you always have 3 guys back. the only way around this is the offense activating the weak side dman, as many do these days, but most teams only have a couple players that do this effectively. and that's only even possible if f2 and f1 fall asleep, which it doesn't sound like the panthers do. seems like part of what makes this team good is a complete 5-man buy-in. his point about their 1-1-3 neutral zone trap backs this up; f3 is responsible af, and f2 & f1 are awake and active in their roles. nothing getting behind you, nothing easy. the forecheck isn't overly aggressive at the point of attack, so you aren't playing yourself by letting them get past you without a fight. they have to go through you.

but edm's transition offense is kind of beside the point anyway, as punker said earlier, despite the reputation the oilers have of being a run&gun team solely due to having connor mcdavid around, they aren't that. they are a slogging la kings style possession team, for the most part. so as long as f3 (barkov, as much as possible) pays attention when mcdavid is on the ice, i wouldn't expect to see much quick strike offense from edm in this series. the panthers 1-1-3 nz trap seems to indicate that the panthers welcome the dump and chase defensively as well, and the oilers like to forecheck and grind, so i guess we'll see who wins out on that one. i hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this is shaping up as a boring series being fought in the trenches.

- edm 1-2-2 trap
- edm box&1 d
- edm high--->low attack vs man defense

i think the oilers have been playing a more aggressive 5-man offensive zone pressure scheme than the panthers. could be wrong but i think they're forechecking with 2 at least sometimes, obviously trying to win the puck then and there. but the one thing that has stood out to me after watching them a bunch in these playoffs is how aggressive both their dmen have been at holding the offensive blueline, it's very unusual. dangerous. a lot of the offense the canucks found vs edm was chipping and chasing vs this aggressiveness, creating some rush chances. and the thing the stars did more was sending players deep in order to stretch edm out; a guy goes long and someone has to go with him, can break the scheme and even create scoring chances this way. he mentioned that waking up f3 was an adjustment that edm had to make vs the stars, let's see if they keep it up or not.

edm's 1-2-2 seems more about disrupting things in the neutral zone than anything else, but idk. also i don't really recall them creating a lot of nz turnovers, though perhaps i'm misremembering. in any case, once they get to the red line, the panthers might opt for the dump&chase.

the box&1 dz defense is ... interesting. yeah i was trying to figure out exactly what they were doing, i could tell it was some collapsing toward the middle thing, and it was really annoying watching the canucks failing to pass the puck through it over and over (and the stars to some extent), but i suspect the panthers might attack it more intelligently. he mentioned something about how they like working the puck around the outside until they can create a chance. the stars seemed to figure this out, only too late. trying to pass the puck through it isn't usually gonna work out too well.

edm's high to low attack vs florida's man vs man defense is probably the most interesting point of the bunch here, and the clips he used in the video illustrate the point very well. you can see how, when they have full control of the puck in the offensive zone, it's possible for them to essentially hunt the 1v1 matchup they like the best (e.g. mcdavid vs literally anyone), and attack. if i was maurice, i'd have a different scheme or rules for mcdrai than everyone else so as to not allow this obvious exploit, but let's see how they play it. in general i like this kind of man defense, but obviously it's much harder to execute vs superstars.

alright well that's way more than enough for now, let's see how it all plays out. i'm sure there'll be adjustments on top of adjustments and it won't happen anything like described above now lol


by philurivey k

Remember the good ole days when this week would be the NHL awards and a champion already crowned? I do.

Yeah I hate this week off


I think Florida gets in Skinner’s face and exposes him for who is, just not that good. They beat Shesterkin who is undeniably better and the Rangers who are a deeper team. Plus, they have the experience and the sting of losing last year. Oilers could definitely win…but I think this probably ends in 6 or 5. Panthers are my pick.


by lozen k

Yeah I hate this week off

Are you nervous yet? 😀

It would be amazing if someone punched Tkachuk in the face, even more amazing if it is Mcdavid. :p


shesterkin is one of the best starters in the league, and skinner is one of the worst, but the oilers are a deeper team. a quick and dirty and somewhat arbitrary look at it:

( 1st thing is # of players over 1 point per 60 at 5v5 in regular season, 2nd is same but in playoffs. 3rd is regular season team xg%, 4th is playoff xg% )

oilers: 14 / 11 players, 57% xg / 51%
panthers: 12 / 12 players, 57% xg / 55%
stars: 17 / 9 players, 56% xg / 53%
rangers: 12 / 8 players, 49% xg / 41%

canes: 16 / 11 players, 58% xg / 54%

rangers best 5v5 performers in the playoffs*, ordered: lafreniere, trochek, panarin, goodrow, roslovic, vesey, zibanejad, kreider
* - also the fact that fox was outscored by trouba leads me to believe that the former was playing injured, which stings

that ... is not good. or deep. the rag$ low key kinda suck but are being boosted by an elite goalie, and it's a damn shame that the canes choked vs them, because they are a good team and would have made for a better ecf, and maybe scf. (sorry heals)


one other interesting note i saw was how the oilers have been a much better 1st period team, while the panthers have been much better in the 3rd. so don't be surprised if this trend continues of the oilers getting a lead and then turtling to hell in order to hang on


So 72, who wins the series?


I might have talked myself into betting Florida here


panthers in 6 feels most likely, but who the hell knows right? loilers certainly in with a shot


Oil in 5


Legit think it will be a short series won by the Oilers. From Oilers writer Jonathan Willis:

5v5 expected goals, regular season:
Edmonton 57.1% / Florida 54.3%

The team with the better regular season 5v5 expected goal share has won 11 of 14 series in these playoffs.

In 2 of 3 exceptions, the winner had vastly superior special teams (something Florida does not have). The last exception was NYR vs. CAR. NYR had worse 5v5 xGF% and comparably excellent special teams. Thanks to a massive finishing/goaltending disparity - .915 for NYR, .873 for CAR - NYR managed to outscore CAR by a single goal and advance.

Expected goals% and NHL rank, regular season:
1. EDM: 57%
3. EDM's R3 opp: 55%
4. EDM's R1 opp: 55%
5. FLA: 54%
8. EDM's R2 rd. opp: 52%
18. FLA's R2 opp: 50%
21. FLA's R1 opp: 49%
22. FLA's R3 opp: 49%


by Punker k

In 2 of 3 exceptions, the winner had vastly superior special teams (something Florida does not have).

oilers 5v4 regular season: 2nd in goals for rate, 3rd in xgf rate
panthers 5v4 regular season: 8th in goals for rate, 2nd in xgf rate

oilers regular season 4v5: 18th in goals against rate, 3rd in xga rate
panthers regular season 4v5: 3rd in goals against rate, 2nd in xga rate

florida has good special teams, as do the oilers, but their lol goaltending situation explains the difference between their expected and actual powerplay goals against. oilers special teams have been running insanely well in the playoffs, will that continue for 4-7 more games? who knows, but the panthers special teams should put them to the test.

and while both teams took a lot of penalties in the regular season, the panthers also drew a lot of them (4th most), but the oilers did not (2nd worst, only ahead of the sharks). might as well try to get out ahead of this in case the panthers get more pps in the final and we never hear the end of it...


yup thats mcbust as f3 getting burnt by barkov and thus it's a 3v2 from the other blueline basically. bing bang boom, way too easy
1-0


by Malucci k

I might have talked myself into betting Florida here

ding ding ding


I bet Panthers series -137


McDavid looks defeated already


ekholm getting danced by and forced to haul down ... *checks notes* kyle okposo, in ... *checks notes* the year of our lord 2024. you really truly do hate to see it


Oilers give 97-29 a shift after the PK and all the shots taken are blueline bombs. Sigh


Breaking news!

Salary cap will be $88 million for next season, $300,000 more than it was going too be.


BOB

by royalblue k

Oilers give 97-29 a shift after the PK and all the shots taken are blueline bombs. Sigh

tbf the panthers seemed to be breaking their man defensive system there to do the all 5 collapse to the net thing, so i get it

by philurivey k

Breaking news!

Salary cap will be $88 million for next season, $300,000 more than it was going too be.

oh ****, can buy like 1/4 of a min player for that


Oilers gonna lose.

Canadian teams don't win the cup in this era.

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