Punt or semi standard hand?
Hey all, got a hand from Venetian $1600 today and just wondering if this is really bad?
Ok 200-300 level. I open to 800 utg with AQdd, good French player flats mp, flat behind and sb makes it 2600. I elect to call and both players behind flat. I consider 4! To a small click back to just get out behind players and fold to a 5! But I don’t think we want to fold AQdd to a 5!. Flop is Q23 with two hearts. I X, xx and button who 3! Bets almost pot. I call and both players fold. Turn 8black, I x and he piles. From brief history at table- he seems like a standard rec who isn’t 3! Enough. I think he has KK honestly and sigh call. Is this terrible! I say yes it is- need to fold turn bc its almost never KQ or some random flush draw due to flop sizing. I won’t say his hand until after some discussion.
I think flop is a mandatory call but turn is so iffy and prolly a fold based on sizing and what villian reps. I started hand with 30k when starting stack was 40k for tourny and all villians covered me in hand. Is this a simple sigh turn fold?
9 Replies
I dunno, entirely read-based. Certainly the size of flop bet into multiple people + turn shove makes me think this is never a hand you're ahead of. AQ is probably the complete bottom of his range, and if he doesn't 3-bet enough maybe not even then. (Maybe he has AhKh, but the bet sizing postflop doesn't seem like it.)
It would make for easier reading and calculating if you'd put the stacks at the beginning of the post, or try to get some estimates for pot size / stack remaining on later streets. But over 10 SPR and with the observation that villain doesn't 3-bet enough, you can probably fold the turn.
I dunno, entirely read-based. Certainly the size of flop bet into multiple people + turn shove makes me think this is never a hand you're ahead of. AQ is probably the complete bottom of his range, and if he doesn't 3-bet enough maybe not even then. (Maybe he has AhKh, but the bet sizing postflop doesn't seem like it.)
It would make for easier reading and calculating if you'd put the stacks at the beginning of the post, or try to get some estimates for pot size / stack remaining on later streets.
Yea this villian wasn’t the type where I thought he would have some solid squeezes on the button in this spot. I think spr for me was like 3-3.5 based on my stack size of 30.2k (11.2k in pot seeing flop).
I also said to myself I never see this being a bluff or kq. A set even is a no possibility hand or two pair bc villian 3! Doesn’t include any hands that make these hands or shouldn’t include those hands.
Btw I wanna spoil it- I don’t think it will ruin discussion. Villian had AA. I kinda dislike his line a little- I think I would have just bet flop and turn and set up a river jam. I think going like close to full pot as a turn bet is just odd and going to find many folds + doesn’t give villian option to fold to a x raise if someone has a set. I wanted to almost 4! Pre to a small number like 5.5k-6k just to clear out flatters behind. I didn’t like the sizing of 2.6k by villian. This spot, I’m going 3200 at a minimum and maybe even as high as 4-4.8k if table is sticky. I think the 2.6k invites so much flatting and seeing a flop Vs 3 with AA is kinda scary- at least get max in pot to make the process of getting chips in post easier.
I’m game, I thought villian had KK as I blocked AA a little. I felt awful making the call and even said this is probably a punt. Think I should have went with my gut instinct. Villian didn’t come off as super aggro play or even a competent tourny reg so I believe this heavily weights this hand toward kk+AA and maybe AK (very low frequency).
Villain's preflop raise size is ridiculously small ( I would make it around 4500) which is why he was up against 4 players.
I get the flop bet size because Villain wants to get gutters to fold and also wants to jam the turn against flush draws that possibly are also pairs, gutters and full out straight draws.
Its almost impossible to fold the flop bet because in theory it could be AK trying to get folds. But I would think about folding (and would likely fold) because a lot of people do not bluff against 3 people on the flop. Especially not with this type of board. I would almost expect a 2600 bet again to cover misses.
As played on the turn its a fold for me. Bluffs are crazy because of the prelfop bet size. If he were bluffing preflop would have been at least 4500. I doubt its KQ because pre-flop would be just a call. Hands like JJ would never bet pot on this flop. AQ is a possibility but then we are just chopping.
I honestly think this a live read spot. A bit confused by the originally post, because you said that the Sb 3 bet and then you all checked and the button was the 3 bettor. 2 things that I think about, first of all, is this player ever betting that large with a hand that we beat? I think the minimum that you are looking at is AhJh. Such a large bet is really unlikely to be AKo (could be AhKh though) (also small buy-in (below $1K) does increase the chance of the spazz factor and the player showing up with something really goofy like 98s) and the player would have to be pretty dumb to bet so big with JJ/TT vs 4 players. Unless this guy is a bit of a maniac
The problem I think that you have here, is that after you call the large bet on the flop, you have a pot sized bet on the turn and are pretty much committed to calling a non-diamond turn. It's a tough spot, but I am usually calling this spots.
I honestly think this a live read spot. A bit confused by the originally post, because you said that the Sb 3 bet and then you all checked and the button was the 3 bettor. 2 things that I think about, first of all, is this player ever betting that large with a hand that we beat? I think the minimum that you are looking at is AhJh. Such a large bet is really unlikely to be AKo (could be AhKh though) (also small buy-in (below $1K) does increase the chance of the spazz factor and the player sho
I think i punted by calling the turn shove honestly. He never doesn’t have AA or KK i feel. The player was a rec just based on preflop sizing and so heavily weighted for value- it was a $1600 tourny at the Venetian. I’m bummed bc I felt sick to my stomach making the call. I think flop is a mandatory call to see what happens. He’s never 3! KQo or KQs, kj k-10 etc bc of what type of player it was- he’s not finding the squeeze with suited k-10 or kj or even kjo. Mistake on my part I feel.
Line is absolute nonsense in theory. Villain has to be able to find the non-standard stuff in their range for me to be super comfortable calling off, but assuming they can find some bluffs and even some stuff they shoudn't jam like T9hh/JThh I'm probably just flicking it in.
The rationale being that this is probably one of the best hands in our range since we'd probably have 4-bet AA/KK pure and probably don't continue with 88 against this line. Folding feels like a massive exploit here that I'd have to be really comfortable with to do, and in a $1600 at 200/300 level I just don't think I have those kind of reads. This might be an exploit fold I'd do in a lower stakes environment against someone who clearly looks like an OMC, but even then...
I think this is big spew vs a rec or general population players - my guess is the recs play pretty straightforward early on in the tournament and maybe open up as you get later in the game. Given you opened UTG and had two callers, I would think his 3b range is fairly nutty here. Furthermore there's less value to doubling up early on vs late game, so in theory you should be playing more conservative especially in big pots. I don't think he pots 3 ways on this flop without AQ+ - maybe something like AKhh AQhh or something to that extent, but even with those thrown in there we're behind.
Line is absolute nonsense in theory. Villain has to be able to find the non-standard stuff in their range for me to be super comfortable calling off, but assuming they can find some bluffs and even some stuff they shoudn't jam like T9hh/JThh I'm probably just flicking it in.
The rationale being that this is probably one of the best hands in our range since we'd probably have 4-bet AA/KK pure and probably don't continue with 88 against this line. Folding feels like a massive exploit here that
Thanks for this- I felt like I punted by making the call honestly. I feel turn is an exploit fold but idk if he’s doing it with flush draw maybe it’s ok- but idk if he is bc I tagged him for a super rec in a $1600. The sizing just had me go like wtf. Betting pot on flop is so odd to me.
I also hate the sizing bc I think v should go like half pot or maybe 60% bc should be some light stuff in range. Folding to a x raise seems almost impossible if you bet pot in this spot unless action is crazy behind. Maybe goes raise all in, call call etc if the hand is weaker by V.
I thought about clicking back pre to get out two flatters who prolly have pps or solid suited hands etc. the one player that flatted my open was supposed in a stable from France and seemed like a really good player. I didn’t want to get stuck to tough decisions with player behind and letting them see cheap flop- I felt villian that made it 2600 was asking to be stacked with AA by going so small with his sizing pre to 2600.
Thanks for this- I felt like I punted by making the call honestly. I feel turn is an exploit fold but idk if he’s doing it with flush draw maybe it’s ok- but idk if he is bc I tagged him for a super rec in a $1600. The sizing just had me go like wtf. Betting pot on flop is so odd to me.
I also hate the sizing bc I think v should go like half pot or maybe 60% bc should be some light stuff in range. Folding to a x raise seems almost impossible if you bet pot in this spot unless action is crazy beh
Him being a rec with an overpair to flop with 2 hearts out there, perhaps he really, really wanted to protect his hand because he'd be sticky getting away from it if a third heart came and was worried one of you other three would be on a strong flush draw and no one should have sets of 2 or 3 where as AQ w no hearts in your exact hand ? So he just wanted to take it down there? Weird line/sizing for sure.
