Trips vs massive overbet jam on river
Villain is 34/24 over 42 hands. No history between us, but a couple of minutes before this he cold 5bet jammed 55 into 4 regs and got called by the 4-better who had AA. So I figure he's either overly aggro, tilting, or both.
Normally probs just fold pre but given the spewy 5bet jam a few minutes earlier I like calling the minraise IP and seeing what happens. If he is indeed on tilt or just super aggro I think we have decent implied odds.
He has 100% flop cbet over an albeit small sample size of 3 hands, but I think calling the flop is standard anyway. Vs unknown villain probably just folding the turn but given our opponent I think calling is okay? But what the hell do we do on the river?
PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Pokeit
UTG: $13.12 (131 bb)
MP: $10.00 (100 bb)
CO (Hero): $12.23 (122 bb)
BU: $22.32 (223 bb)
SB: $23.42 (234 bb)
BB: $12.40 (124 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with 9♣ 8♣
UTG raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20, 3 players fold
Flop: ($0.55) 6♥ Q♦ 9♦ (2 players)
UTG bets $0.27, Hero calls $0.27
Turn: ($1.09) J♣ (2 players)
UTG bets $0.94, Hero calls $0.94
River: ($2.97) 9♠ (2 players)
UTG bets $11.71 (all-in), Hero ???????
7 Replies
After seeing him 5b jam 55 before clear call preflop we want to get involeved with him especialy if people behind you are squezing to tight you can get very loose with your cold calls there vs a wale.
Flop easy call , Turn seems the most tricky to me to be honest because we need him to realy go out off line with bluffs but given his play before call turn and then very easy call on river never folding vs a spewy wale here he could do this with AA for example and overplaying his hand.
On a brick river we fold vs this bet but if he bets something like 3/4 probably we need to call because of him beeing likely to overbluff gutshots and random hands like low pockets or low Ax etc.
This all makes sense, but isn't sample size small enough to make us cautious, perhaps too cautious to call such a big overbet on river, with just a bluffcatcher?
34/24 is not some mega whale. Just because he jammed pp pre doesn't mean he will randomly bluff off a stack.
Don't call this pre flop.
Fold pre, call flop, fold turn, call river
The turn is certainly a fold. The river is a bluffcatcher, but this guy has a ton of value hands, so I wouldn't be surprised if he's actually underbluffing.
34/24 is not some mega whale. Just because he jammed pp pre doesn't mean he will randomly bluff off a stack.
Don't call this pre flop.
I agree the VPIP/PFR don't say much but I think you're underselling the 55 jam. It wasn't just "jamming pp pre", he cold 5bet jammed into 4 regs. UTG opened, I 3bet from HJ, SB cold 4bets and he jams from the BB. I'm folding QQ in his position there, maybe even AKo. UTG, me and SB all have normal 3bet/4bet stats. I think that says a bit about either him as a player, or at least how he's currently playing (tilt?).
Looking back though, I do agree with everyone saying turn is a fold. I think that was a mistake. River I'm still undecided but having time to think about it, I also think it was probably a fold.
For anyone curious...
Spoiler
I called, he had JJ. GG.
Thanks, interesting hand
