Late Tournament; Hand Review - WWYD?
Been curious about this spot from a hand late in a tournament other night I feel I could use some opinion on. This was nearing FT... maybe ~25-30 hands off it. Curious to what others would have done in my shoes and villains.
Blinds are 7000/3500, ante 875. This hand took place between UTG2 and myself in BB. I had ~31bb, UTG2 had ~25.5bb.
UTG2 opens 2.5bb. Folds to me in BB I have Qc3c. I defend.
Flop comes Ac Jd 5c. He bets 2.1bb, I call.
Turn brings 4s. He bets 3.5bb. So, there's 14bb in middle. I am figuring he has a medium strength Ax holding. I have 26.2bb behind, he has 17.3bb behind (effectively pot sized bet).
In the moment of the hand, I am thinking if he has a medium Ax holding, I think this is a good/fun spot to try and get him off it w some pressure. I think I have more combos of A5,A4, 45s, and in moment I think I have a pretty decent combo draw with enough equity. I don't think a medium Ax would want to call off their tournament for. I'm talking through it with a friend rail birding, he thinks I shoulda just called, I do the latter obviously. He call surprisingly quick with As10d and the turn bricks so I get left with like 6bb or so. Good call by him? Bad line by me?
Curious to others thoughts. Hindsight is always 20:20. Part of me thinks I should have raised flop to shove turn (though I think I get called off more often on this line which is why I opted not to). Another part of me just called turn to shut down if I miss and I still have 22bb to move on and fight with. I am not really mad with my line, I think I was more surprised by his call which worked out for him. I am not sure I would have made that call in his spot personally.
What say you?
9 Replies
Trying to get someone to fold a paired Ace is usually a poor idea.
It's not a terrible bluff with all the outs you have, and usually a spot like this where you have decent equity but no showdown value is a good one to bluff. I don't expect him to fold an ace, though. It really depends more on how often you think he'll barrel this just out of range advantage vs. actually having an ace. (Getting the gutshot hands that beat you, KQ/KT/QT, to fold is great for you.) If he's never betting without an ace, I'm calling and hoping to hit given the immediate odds-- you're getting 4:1 with 12 outs, when you only really need 3:1 to break even.
He only bets 1/3 pot here; I kinda think this bluff is better if he bets larger, since it should be more polarized-- you're not really in any worse shape when he does have it, but a larger size should allow him to bluff more, which means you should pick up more folds (and win more when you do). But that's all in theory, since I have no idea how villain actually plays.
I don’t hate it. I think I’d raise small rather than jam, but the instinct is good. A lot of our combo draws with no showdown value do want to raise sometimes.
If we do go small raise and get jammed we probably have to call off because pot odds, but our bet folds out better Qx and Kx non-club bluffs and maybe some Jx going thin for value, which is nice.
The problem with a jam is that we almost never fold out an A in theory, although maybe some players find the fold in game. Small raise probably accomplishes the same thing with less risk to overall stack.
I don't mind it with turning the straight draw - the other option is to call and donk the river. I think I might prefer this option as we block clubs and some broadways, and I think he won't fold Ax to a jam and doesn't play Jx this way.
I don't like raising against boards like this on the turn against EP pre flop raises especially when flop and turn bets have been 1/3 pot. We are getting decent implied odds. I would have no problem with it if there was no A on the board.
The problem if we don't raise is that if we hit our hand it will be hard to get a call with a large river donk and Villain is likely to check back. So I would lead out with about 25% pot if we hit river which could get a crying call.
If you think he probably has A then your jam sucks.
If you genuinely think he’s just a barreling LAG or something then I like the jam because your line really looks like you have an A and have just decided to go broke with it on the turn barrel.
All things considered I think I’m just calling turn. I do wonder if there’s a case for a fold though given our implied odds are mud on the wheel, and probably not much better on the club after we just flat 2 streets. Obv if he’s a station last statement is irrelevant.
If you think he probably has A then your jam sucks.
If you genuinely think he’s just a barreling LAG or something then I like the jam because your line really looks like you have an A and have just decided to go broke with it on the turn barrel.
All things considered I think I’m just calling turn. I do wonder if there’s a case for a fold though given our implied odds are mud on the wheel, and probably not much better on the club after we just flat 2 streets. Obv if he’s a station last statement is
We don't even need implied odds for a turn call to be correct:
I read turn barrel as 8.5 not 3.5. Gg optometrist.
