Can we ever find a fold or just on to the next?

He’s not bluffing but he could be valuing worse. You’ve posted a lot of good hands, but this one seems pretty MUBsy.

Turn and river should be bigger btw

Did you win any of these hands or are you just on a completely cursed run?

More combos of value we beat (77) than KTs. Maybe scared money doesn’t shove 77. I think we have to call, we are at top of range.

This is a good point. I also think there's more chance with draws out there that KT raises flop or turn, whereas 77 is sitting pretty and trapping. We can also potentially put QsJs in his range too (if we think he limp-calls this pre too). Of course the flip side is he could be MUBSY with KT and scared of AK which is why he only calls flop and turn, and of course there's the issue on whether KTo is in his range as well as KTs, which gives a lot more combos.

Regardless, no way I ever find a fold here. Also, we should be coolered from time to time. If we're never coolered, we're almost certainly undecalling.

We need 27.4% equity to call, and there are 17 combos in all of NLHE that beat us. We beat 3 combos of flopped boats, so just assuming he doesn't l/c w K7o and KK, it's already close enough to a breakeven call that there is ZERO room for error in ranging villain. If he ever does this with straights or trips, or if we assume he folds turn w TT sometimes, it's a clear call.

People way more likely to play KT/K9 or even K7 like this than 77, IMO.

I would bet more on turn.

If you don't think he has bluffs (or stupid played overvalued KJ) it's probably a fold, although we don't need to be good that much, even if he doesn't have TT. If you have piles of money it _might_ be 0EV or +$10 or whatever.

I wouldn't discount quads, he l/c'd, then either got cold feet or tried to flat again thinking someone else was about to raise but even if he flatted pre then waited to make sure there was no ace otf isn't out of the question, anything's possible.

I’m in a pretty cursed run, -$7k downswing. Hard to keep plugging away at live without doubting my skill, lol. But, obvi don’t want to by biased in hands and look at both huge hands won and lost. Might start grinding online…

Gotta keep your chin up in a 7BI downswing. I'm sure you're not playing perfectly (who is?), but posting all your boat over boat coolers to the nittiest subforum in all of poker isn't gonna be the best gauge of how avoidable your downswing is 😃

Jeez. I cant imagine a guy snapping his stack in with a missed fd or with like…QJ? AK? I see lots of dumb overplays, but i cant think its a spaz overplay 25% of the time. Its just gotta be KT K9 MAYBE k7. I guess i could see overplayed/slowplayed 77?

I think its a super sad b/f otr? Ugh.

Folding is insane. Completely insane. The results oriented posts in this thread are absurd.

Yes, we’re going to lose a good bit. But folding is seriously laughable.

-7k at 2-5-10 is nothing, IMNSHO.

It's difficult to know how we are all counting but...

I know people playing 5-10 live who've been on -20k runs and complained about it, but admitted it's probably not that big variance wise.

I've lost $1k in a day at 1-2 live multiple times, at least once where the max buyin was $300.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S should have written a book because AFAIK his blog with his results is dead.
Still posts/threads though, like:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/54/po...
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38/om...

Mental game is real, and poker will test it more than anything else I know.

I'm in the call category, but ones where there is disagreement are generally good posts. As for is it results-oriented. Hard to know, but at low stakes, most of us know that large river reraises tend to be very nutted type hands.

Easy call OTR, I assume you got coolered by K7 or something. I go larger OTT as well and balance with AsQx or all AQ even. River I check to induce.

Yes, board was paired on the flop 3 ways and we have the 2nd worst FH on the river ... obviously we have to call the IP snap jam for over 50bb and if we lose it's just a cooler. /s

Trying to put this in GTO wiz is beyond difficult (multiway, 3x blinds, limps, big preflop raise) ... but clicking some buttons to get something maybe close, when V shoves river all value is 999KK+, but V bluffs 97s/T7s/98s/T9s/96s.
H then folds ~55% of 99 that get here.

There’s no way you can plug this into GTO. Trying to analyze a massive fish’s range with a solver isn’t a helpful exercise.

Some people will show up with K8s here. No way I’m folding 99 given the odds we’re getting.

FWIW I plugged this into GTO with us as UTG opener and villain as a BB caller. 200 Bb deep. We bet all three streets, river bet 24Bb, then Villain check/shoves 184Bb. 99 calls 91%.

Dealing with downswings is hard, my game fell apart at least somewhat when i had my first one. I went on a bigger downswing than you on mostly 2/5, (not even 2/5/10 haha), and certainly cant blame the back half entirely on variance. Didnt tilt or anything, i just doubted my game and stopped doing the little things like looking for reads, and wasnt as interested in doing stuff like reading these forums. Its hard to know whether the issue is bad play of bad luck. In hindsight, I feel like the first half of my downswing, i adjusted when i shouldnt have, and the back half I didnt adjust when i should have.

The tough thing for someone who doesnt play a lot is that if you view your winrate even in the most optimistic of lights at 10 BB/hr, a very standard downswing can be expected to take a year or longer to make up for with average luck, and of course even longer with bad luck.

Disinterested tilt is what gets me. Anytime I lose the childlike spark of wonder for the game, I’m better off just moving down to 1/3NL and grinding through my downswing by getting fat value with sets and overpairs.