1/2 Villain overbet shove turn monotone board
Effective stack 450
Villain middle aged (40ish?) regular, he is pretty loose and bad. Classic 1/2 live player bad reg
Hero is on the BTN with
J♣9♣
CO limp, hero raises to $15
SB villain 3b to $40
CO folds
Hero calls
Flop: J♦9♦6♦
POT: $80
SB bet 65
Hero call
Turn: Q♠
Board:
J♦9♦6♦Q♠
Pot: $210
SB jams all in for ~350
I tank folded. Will write the reveal later. His 3b! showed lots of strength pre flop as he was very limp/call happy. I didn't feel comfortable seeing large bets on both flop and turn.
6 Replies
just based on general live player 3b ranges there it seems like the only thing to worry about here is JJ 99(?) QQ AdQd AdKd (7 combos) and really the flopped nuts you gotta discount a bit as I think many bad players would not fast play.
Other value you beat is AdQ, AdA, KdK, which is 9 combos. Then maybe there's AdJ or other AdX hands or just misc BS. Seems +EV to call.
Jam flop. QQ+ will call, you dont wanna see a diamond turn because either you lose or you win a smaller pot.
As played its a call, its JJ+ or AdKd most of the time, he wont play AA KK this way every time but you cant fold to 5 combos, he has enough spaz + AA KK that yoove got odds.
Call. Worried mostly about a set with QQ/JJ/99. He should have overpairs or Ad mostly. He didn't 3! with anything that would give him a low flush to protect.
Thanks everyone. He had KK no diamonds. Yes I should have called, bad play on my part.
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Shove flop, you’re often ahead and get called by worse a lot.
That said, calling and gii on safe turns is fine. This is a safe turn.
Effective stack 450
Villain middle aged (40ish?) regular, he is pretty loose and bad. Classic 1/2 live player bad reg
Hero is on the BTN with
J♣9♣
CO limp, hero raises to $15
SB jams all in for ~350
I tank folded. Will write the reveal later. His 3b! showed lots of strength pre flop as he was very limp/call happy. I didn't feel comfortable seeing large bets on both flop and turn.
It's 1/2. People aren't 3 setting that much. What's he doing that with? AKs, AA, KK, QQ. I doubt anything lower. Maybe AQs. What of that do you feat. By the turn QQ has you smoked. If he has AK, AKs diamonds then he has you smoked. I'd discount him betting on the turn with AKs if he has no flush. The same iwth AQ given how much he bet on the flop unless he has an ace so there's some wiggle room but I doubt he'd go crazy at 1/2. Here's how you could do the math.
Hands that beat you
AQs, AKs, the 3 combinations of queens that are left (there's 6 possible pair combinations)
Hands that you beat
6 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK
Thus, you lose to 5 hands he could have, you beat 12 hands he could have. You win 70% of the time. Also, even if he has a flush, you still win 5% of the time in those instances since the 9 and J would be still alive.
The key learning point here is remember the count of combinations. If someone has either AK or AA and you beat AA, there's more AK than there is AA for example.
