$1/$3 River Bluff catch with JJ
Hero flats JJ vs EP 3b vs utg limper. Blinds call, utg folds.
I realize I end up in this situation because I did not 3b pre. So first part of discussion is whether we should ever just be flatting JJ here on the BTN with $600-$700 effective stacks, and fish in the blinds also 200bb deep.
Pot is $60
Flop comes Qc8c4x
Blinds check, Villain checks, hero checks.
Turn bricks a 6x
Blinds check, Villain bets $35
Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds.
Pot is ~$160
River bricks 2x
SB check, villain bets $120
Hero??
My hand is so under-repped but SB still left to act behind and EP 3bettor has all of the Qx for value (all of the KK+ as well).
Villain is competent reg, SB is rec player that hasn't really gotten out of line at all.
We hold the J of clubs.
Spoiler
hero folds, SB folds, villain shows JdTd for the bluff. SB confirms he had a missed FD
11 Replies
Just think what hands can V actually have to take that line with that sizing on this board?
Just think what hands can V actually have to take that line with that sizing on this board?
AK, KJs, JTs, 45s are the bluffs I imagine he could have. It's a good spot to bet and fold out weak/middling pairs. That said we block half of those combos.
I feel like most if not all Qx should just be betting that flop but maybe with no club and multi way they check back for some pot control?
In any case, not sure your comment is very helpful as it does not provide any insight. I've obviously thought about what hands he may or may not have here. I'm asking for input, your comment seems to imply it is obvious one way or the other but I do not think so. If you think so, please elaborate.
Not sure why there is expectation for someone to be very helpful especially coming from a poster who has contributed on average less than 1 post per year. But hey, I am a sucker for throwing breadcrumbs. If you want me to explain all these in a way that you may understand it…what do I get out of it?
It’s clear that you have never observed people’s tendencies with middling hands on turn and river. It’s pretty obvious that V has a polarized range on river and may not even bet that hard with bottom of his nutted range.
Board is pretty dry and most wouldn’t want to blow others out of water when they can subconsciously see that there isn’t much fat value to be had. Don’t even think an average player would bet that hard with 75, unless of course there are meta games involved.
Seems like a pretty easy spot to me.
Flatting OTB pre is fine.
Calling down post is fine to exploit the fact that PFRs don’t check flop with big hands often enough and SB doesn’t x/c turn with big hands often enough and does it with too weak of holdings.
Not sure why there is expectation for someone to be very helpful especially coming from a poster who has contributed on average less than 1 post per year. But hey, I am a sucker for throwing breadcrumbs. If you want me to explain all these in a way that you may understand it…what do I get out of it?
It’s clear that you have never observed people’s tendencies with middling hands on turn and river. It’s pretty obvious that V has a polarized range on river and may not even bet that hard with bottom
I am not sure what you think the point of posting the hand is if not to get feedback. My main concern was SB left to act behind, no consideration for that? I think without SB it's an easy call. I post because I was unsure what to do here with a player left to act. It's still just an 'easy call'?
It's clear you think very highly of yourself. No one is asking you to reply to any posts if it's not worth your time. Why even reply? To let the world know how smart you think you are? Piss off
It’s more less inducing you to demonstrate your level of understanding.
Think in SB’s shoes. What can he overcall with? SB is a non-factor and his calling range would be a big part of his turn raising range if not all of it. So what does that mean? He has next to zero calling range in this spot.
No matter how I look at it, this is a super straight forward spot as played.
Omg, it’s Tanqueray in the flesh!
It’s always such an honor to see you down here commenting on us fish’s hands…and on someone with less than 1 post per day, no less!!
I think flatting this deep on the Button with no other significant dead money in the pot is fine, and even allowing the limper / blind to come along isn't horrendous. More reasons to 3bet if stacks are very short (to commit them ASAP), huge dead money in the pot, huge amount of limpers in the pot to deny equity from, buy position, etc. (none of which apply here).
Think I would mostly bet smallish on the flop when checked to. The more multiway we are on a drawy board, the more people donk TP to protect from checking around, so very good chance we have the best hand at this point and want to bet for value / protection.
Also calling turn as played.
Kinda gross spot on the river when a competent reg is still betting into a pot that is kinda protected from bluffing due to the rec still being in the hand. Although it is clear the rec doesn't have Qx (due to checking both flop and turn), so maybe Villain has sussed out what is going on here (putting reg on a draw and us on weak pair). But I'm also conflicted because I just see so few multiway river bluffs here overall. Tough spot, wouldn't fault a call or a fold.
GcluelessNLnoobG
The hands you're worried about are sets Qx and overpairs. He should not have many straights or 2p.
Do sets and overpairs check this wet flop? Maybe, but unlikely. Same with AQ. His check caps his range at roughly top pair, 2nd or 3rd kicker. It is a narrow range of TP because the worst Q he opens EP is probably ~QTs
On the turn he suspects no one has a Q, or at least not a strong one, due to the check though. He bets all his Q, FD, and 99-JJ
On the river his value range is a narrow range of Qx, targeting a narrow range of worse Qx or non believing PPs (like you)
His bluff range is really read dependent, so I don't think the answer is obvious. Because most draws missed, he can expect to get called lighter. So seems like a good spot for him for thin value and a bad spot for him to bluff. I would fold unless I have seen him bluff in situations like this before
Pre is a little confusing with reads and other info missing but in general unless he's raising from UTG/UTG+1 I'm usually still 3betting pre (depending on other factors of course) we should use the button to our advantage instead of as a crutch.
rts
Everyone saying sb can’t have Qx. He’s not allowed to check that twice? I would definitely check turn with QT because the hands that call are likely to bet and we can get bluffs out of hands with little equity.
I think river is very close. We are blocking the hands we want them to have. He’s not repping a whole lot, makes me want to call.
This would be a well played hand by villain if he shows AQ KK AA.