$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition
I am going to be starting with $25 in my Ignition Account and try to spin it up to $25,000.
I will start at 5nl since it is the lowest stake on the site and be playing Ignition Reg tables only.
I will be updating every 5k hands with my progress.
My expectation for each limit is as follows:
Expected Winrates for each limit:
5NL: 30bb/100
10NL: 25bb/100
25NL: 20bb/100
50NL: 15bb/100
100NL: 12bb/100
200NL: 10bb/100
Variance will be a decent factor in a lot of these winrates but these are just ball park numbers. Once I hit 25k I will take a 10buyin shot at 500nl! As far as moving up I'll move up whenever I feel like it, but probably after winning 30-40 buyins at the limit.
There will be no cherry picking here since you can't cherry pick a Bankroll Challenge. Wish me luck (or not) and follow along in this thread.
i would agree if we are going to barrel the turn (w/77). Otherwise we just give him the turn and river very cheap when he has overcards. Even if he's a fish, the equities remain the same.
This topic is pretty complicated and I don't think I can definitively prove that cbetting smaller is better but I'll just say some things that I know to be true.
I have Fish as 3bp oop pfc xf 44% vs B50 but only xf 31% vs B30. They actually play closer to theory when you c-bet bigger (we don't want this).
Fish donk lead more than theory. So you want to keep ranges wide when you have a bluff catcher OTR which is why we want to cbet smaller with medium strength hands OTF (you could cbet bigger with strong value).
You also have to look at xc-x-b lines vs fish and compare them to theory. I have Fish bluffing 50% weak in xc30-x-b70 and theory is 30% weak as 3bp oop pfc.
You aren't incentivized to double barrel fish with merged hands because xc-xc-donk is the strongest donk line and fish donk much more than a solver.
That is MDA that I know to be true but I'm open to hearing why cbetting bigger OTF is better.
This topic is pretty complicated and I don't think I can definitively prove that cbetting smaller is better but I'll just say some things that I know to be true.
I have Fish as 3bp oop pfc xf 44% vs B50 but only xf 31% vs B30. They actually play closer to theory when you c-bet bigger (we don't want this).
Fish donk lead more than theory. So you want to keep ranges wide when you have a bluff catcher OTR which is why we want to cbet smaller with medium strength hands OTF (you could cbet bigger with
If you are more familiar with this line then it probably makes sense to go with it. I've never looked at MDA so I'm approaching it from a different angle. The insight is appreciated
I think this spot is pretty interesting. Huge mistake to fold in theory but this line seems very strong.
How are you ranging BB here?
x turn to BC river?
I think bluffing here is too non-intuitive. Random spew aside, very OP heavy or high equity draws mostly
I think this spot is pretty interesting. Huge mistake to fold in theory but this line seems very strong.
How are you ranging BB here?
Does it seem strong though? What strong hands check the flop out of position after 3betting preflop? A set or maybe aces? Getting 3:1 I'm not even putting BB on a range I'm just clicking call and expecting some random spew. That's his range, lots of random spew plus sets and pocket aces and turned flush draws. Maybe you got him pipped with 88.
x turn to BC river?
I think bluffing here is too non-intuitive. Random spew aside, very OP heavy or high equity draws mostly
Lots of random spew in this line imo. What overpairs 3bet pre and check the flop? Only overpair I'd expect is maybe aces.
After thinking about it more, he has AK and is jamming for value/protection/frustration.
I think this spot is pretty interesting. Huge mistake to fold in theory but this line seems very strong.
How are you ranging BB here?
would surprise me if 10nl villains find the jam with FDs OTT
mainly because they almost always bet the non A-high ones OTF (and barrel turn) and then x/c the A-high ones OTT cuz “SD value”
very likely running into a value hand
looks more like 9x than an overpair to me but he could have a bunch of draws too like 56s or T8s, maybe 78s or 88 could take this line, either way we’re never folding, if he has us beat good for him
This topic is pretty complicated and I don't think I can definitively prove that cbetting smaller is better but I'll just say some things that I know to be true.
I have Fish as 3bp oop pfc xf 44% vs B50 but only xf 31% vs B30. They actually play closer to theory when you c-bet bigger (we don't want this).
Fish donk lead more than theory. So you want to keep ranges wide when you have a bluff catcher OTR which is why we want to cbet smaller with medium strength hands OTF (you could cbet bigger with
If they donk strong hands otr that doesn't hurt your medium hands, you just fold them. You lost 2 bets vs those in both lines.
For me it comes down to how vulnerable your hand is. You want to check to induce bluff if hands you are giving free card have very little equity against you.
If they donk strong hands otr that doesn't hurt your medium hands, you just fold them. You lost 2 bets vs those in both lines.
For me it comes down to how vulnerable your hand is. You want to check to induce bluff if hands you are giving free card have very little equity against you.
They don't donk only strong hands in xc-xc-donk, it is just the strongest out of all the donk lines. They still donk merged. That's why we don't barrel turn with merged hands vs fish because you can potentially lose 3 bets when you bluff catch.
I consider my opponent having only 6 outs vs me OTT to be very little equity.
would surprise me if 10nl villains find the jam with FDs OTT
mainly because they almost always bet the non A-high ones OTF (and barrel turn) and then x/c the A-high ones OTT cuz “SD value”
very likely running into a value hand
The problem with folding TT here is the margin of error is too high. Look at how much of a mistake it is in a solver.
It's an over 37bb mistake to fold here.
The point of this hand is to illustrate some concepts that are really important in 3bps. I'll post them a little later and also the reveal to the HH.
The problem with folding TT here is the margin of error is too high. Look at how much of a mistake it is in a solver.
It's an over 37bb mistake to fold here.
.
The problem in tight range spots is that removing even one hand from the betting range can change a call from winning to a complete punt, or from a punt to winning, so you have to decide on your own if a call is good or not.
The problem in tight range spots is that removing even one hand from the betting range can change a call from winning to a complete punt, or from a punt to winning, so you have to decide on your own if a call is good or not.
Yeah but it's not just winning, it's massively winning.
The burden of proof is on the person deviating from a solver not the other way around. You would have to show extensive MDA to be confident that folding is correct.
I have XC30-XR line frequencies for 3BP OOP PFR right in line with GTO frequencies.
The only way someone can intelligently decide on their own is through data. Guessing doesn't work.
The problem with folding TT here is the margin of error is too high. Look at how much of a mistake it is in a solver.
It's an over 37bb mistake to fold here.
The point of this hand is to illustrate some concepts that are really important in 3bps. I'll post them a little later and also the reveal to the HH.
Why would the EV between TsTh and TsTd be different? Is that just a mistake by the solver, low confidence or something?
edit: I just looked again and realized having the ten of hearts blocks T9hh.
Okay so the reason I posted this hand in here is because it illustrates 3 important concepts. I was talking to TBJ about this hand and he made some really good points that resonated with me. I'm going to post the original HH here and then we can talk about what they are. I'm actually the BB here.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($10) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 60% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 346861]
HJ ($9.85) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 13]
CO ($16.39) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 28.6% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 8]
BTN ($10.30) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 10]
SB ($9.90) [VPIP: 15.4% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 13]
Dealt to Hero: K♥ K♠
HJ Folds, CO Raises To $0.30, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $1.30, CO Calls $1
Hero SPR on Flop: [3.28 effective]
Flop ($2.65): 4♠ 7♥ 9♦
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.24 (Rem. Stack: $13.85), HERO Calls $1.24 (Rem. Stack: $7.46)
Turn ($5.13): 4♠ 7♥ 9♦ 9♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.83 (Rem. Stack: $12.02), HERO Raises To $7.46 (allin), CO Calls $5.63 (Rem. Stack: $6.39)
River ($20.05): 4♠ 7♥ 9♦ 9♠ 3♦
Spoiler
CO shows: T♠ T♣
HERO wins: $19.05
Okay before I get into this I just want to make a minor point to help people understand whether a spot is a range bet or not when we are OOP PFR as the 3B aggressor. A good heuristic is just to think about what AK want's to do, if you don't know what AK wants to do then it is probably a mixed spot and not a range bet OTF.
Concept #1
So once we decide to check KK OTF and CO stabs we can either xc or xr. It doesn't matter what we do since it's mixed, I prefer x/c because I think my opponent's expect me to xr KK here a lot but this is not the main point.
The first important concept to learn is what happens when my opponent checks back OTF.
Let's check what a solver is doing first.
Okay a solver is mixing so it's the same EV, so in theory it doesn't matter what we do. But in practice it certainly does.
Let's look at 3BP IP PFC X-XF frequencies to delayed cbets.
MDA show's them overfolding 10%-15% over GTO based on your delayed cbet sizing. That is a massive overfold.
Okay so that means we are incentivized to not delayed cbet with strong hands correct?
Now let's look at X-B frequencies from 3BP IP PFC perspective.
Now when you check twice as the OOP PFR. Population is stabbing 5%-10% more than GTO.
So not only do we get an overfold if we delayed cbet, we get an overstab if we check twice.
Conclusion.
As a default you should always check KK OTT if you do decide to check flop and IP doesn't stab.
Since you are getting overfolds with your delayed cbets and over stabs with your double checks, you should be double checking value as a default.
Okay this is getting longer than I thought but that is basically two points in one that are super important to understand on how to construct your range.
I'll come back tomorrow with point two.
See you then.
The problem with folding TT here is the margin of error is too high. Look at how much of a mistake it is in a solver.
It's an over 37bb mistake to fold here.
The point of this hand is to illustrate some concepts that are really important in 3bps. I'll post them a little later and also the reveal to the HH.
what solution are you looking at? In sims i check out TT are close to 0ev or 1-5bb.
Disclaimer: This is Reg strategy. We play Fish completely differently so I don't want people to get confused.
Concept #2-Concept #3.
We just looked at what happens when our opponent checks back OTF.
Now let's look at what happens when our opponent stabs flop.
We know our opponent's stab close to GTO frequencies OTF. But how do they respond vs a XR?
We compare GTO to Population and find out after they stab flop as 3BP IP PFC they overfold 5%-15% depending on sizing.
Another massive overfold.
What does that mean? That means you aren't incentivized to fast play value.
That means we should slow play value as a default, especially if the action is mixed (same EV) in a solver.
But let's go even further down the game tree. What about Stab flop-Bet turn frequencies as 3BP IP PFC? How is population playing this spot?
They under B-B as the IP caller.
Okay but what about B-BF?
They way under fold relative to GTO.
Since we know this, what should we do with our value OTT as the 3BP OOP PFR after we x/c flop?
Well, now we fast play Overpairs OTT because we are incentivized to jam value, but not bluffs----->this is because they under fold turn relative to GTO
It becomes even more of a turn jam when you factor in that the B-B-B line is underbluffed as 3BP IP PFC.
Now I realize this seems very difficult to execute in game but it's actually not as hard as it reads. It's really just a 3 step process:
1. Know GTO
2. Know MDA
3. Know the population gap between the two
The more you practice it, the better you will get.
Thanks for reading.
River donk bluff is mandatory.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($12.44) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Cold Call: 9.6% | Hands: 346940]
CO ($15.25) [VPIP: 55.3% | PFR: 39.5% | AGG: 48.3% | Flop Agg: 38.5% | Turn Agg: 75% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 18.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
BTN ($10.63) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 38.5% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 14]
SB ($10.85) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 29.4% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 17]
Dealt to Hero: 5♦ 3♦
CO Raises To $0.20, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.10
Hero SPR on Flop: [27.2 effective]
Flop ($0.45): 9♥ 8♥ 5♣
HERO Checks, CO Checks
Turn ($0.45): 9♥ 8♥ 5♣ J♥
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.29 (Rem. Stack: $14.76), HERO Calls $0.29 (Rem. Stack: $11.95)
River ($1.03): 9♥ 8♥ 5♣ J♥ A♥
HERO Bets $0.74 (Rem. Stack: $11.21), CO Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $0.98
This is a huge punt call in a solver.
But why is this a call vs a good microstakes reg but a fold vs a good midstakes reg?
Bonus question: How should we play this hand differently vs a good midstakes reg besides folding river?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software
NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
HERO ($10) [VPIP: 29.4% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.3% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.9% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 13.6% | Hands: 346989]
BTN ($11.36) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 57.1% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 7.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 26]
SB ($10.60) [VPIP: 24% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 26]
BB ($10.15) [VPIP: 17.4% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 24]
HJ ($2.44) [VPIP: 42.3% | PFR: 34.6% | AGG: 35.7% | Hands: 26]
Dealt to Hero: 3♦ 3♥
HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.25, BTN Raises To $0.80, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.55
Hero SPR on Flop: [5.26 effective]
Flop ($1.75): K♠ 2♣ 5♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $0.42 (Rem. Stack: $10.14), HERO Calls $0.42 (Rem. Stack: $8.78)
Turn ($2.59): K♠ 2♣ 5♦ A♥
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $8.49), HERO Calls $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $7.13)
River ($5.89): K♠ 2♣ 5♦ A♥ 6♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $8.49 (allin), HERO Calls $7.13 (allin)
Spoiler
BTN shows: Q♣ J♠
HERO wins: $19.15
This is a huge punt call in a solver.
But why is this a call vs a good microstakes reg but a fold vs a good midstakes reg?
Bonus question: How should we play this hand differently vs a good midstakes reg besides folding river?
It's not a call vs a good microstakes reg. I don't play microstakes nor 6max, but I just can't believe that call is good at any stakes.
Bonus answer: fold preflop to the 3bet.
It's not a call vs a good microstakes reg. I don't play microstakes nor 6max, but I just can't believe that call is good at any stakes.
Bonus answer: fold preflop to the 3bet.
Okay but what is the exact reason it is not good at higher stakes?
As for as the bonus answer, no you would rather call 22/33 than 44-66 preflop. Do you know why?
